Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I really get tired of people constantly quoting advanced metrics.....

Yes and thanks for your words of wisdom and leadership. It's very refreshing and inspiring:

-"People aren't using their brains."

-"Metrics don't tell the whole story"

-"Formulas don't manage baseball games"

-"I'll take a winner"

-"I would never trade a player because a formula says he might be more valuable"

-"Thank god some of you aren't running the team"

That's good stuff.

Try and understand that most of us stat guys were getting wedgies in the bathroom while you were laughing about it and banging the high school cheerleader. Most of us didn't play real baseball. I played some wiffleball with the girls across the street. Life got worse after high school and there are still lots of unresolved issues. Most of us post on here only to try and prove how smart we are instead of talking intelligently about real baseball with real men like yourself.

Thanks again, really. Where did you play ball at? Are you coaching these days? Is there any chance I can come over and play a round of catch?

[Il BuonO]

Yes and thanks for your words of wisdom and leadership. It's very refreshing and inspiring:

-"People aren't using their brains."

-"Metrics don't tell the whole story"

-"Formulas don't manage baseball games"

-"I'll take a winner"

-"I would never trade a player because a formula says he might be more valuable"

-"Thank god some of you aren't running the team"

That's good stuff.

Try and understand that most of us stat guys were getting wedgies in the bathroom while you were laughing about it an banging the high school cheerleader. Most of us didn't play real baseball. I played some wiffleball with the girls across the street. Life got worse after high school and there are still lots of unresolved issues. Most of us post on here only to try and prove how smart we are instead of talking intelligently about real baseball with real men like yourself.

Thanks again, really. Where did you play ball at? Are you coaching these days? Is there any chance I can come over and play a round of catch?

Hey, hey...I used to play baseball. Take it easy, will ya?

[Norfolk orioles]

Oh and if I really wanted too, I'm sure I could go back to the beginning of last season and find countless threads/posts from you "sabergeniuses" suggesting that we trade Adam Jones (and probably Matt Wieters too for that matter). to "get some value from him" because before last season, his metrics weren't nearly good enough to warrant signing to a long term contract on a non-contending team and that he "would probably just go elsewhere" and that we should just "get what we could from him" etc.

If most of you had your way, you would have traded Jones and last season NEVER would have happened. You were completely wrong about that move and it is my opinion that you are wrong about this one as well. You can point to hypothetical's in numbers all you want and since we will never know what any potential alternative outcome would yield (there is only reality), you can claim to be right or superior all you want with no real repercussions, but as I said, last year was statistically impossible according to any advanced metric, Jones should have been traded for parts since we were "never going to contend" and Johnson, a dynamic elite level closer (and yeah, he's one of the 4 or 5 best in the game so that makes him elite) should be shipped from a team that made the playoffs last year for a fifth starter with "potential" to another playoff team in the offseason.

Like I said, thank god none of you are running this team.

Btw....just thought this was interesting. Here were the top 15 fantasy "closers" ranked before last season. Now before you go insane and start the "fantasy baseball, get out of here!" crap, I'm not referencing this for fantasy baseball purposes!!! I'm pointing this out for a reason, and that reason is to prove that quality end of game pitching is NO SURE THING!!

1. Kimbrell - without a doubt the best current closer in the game

2. Axford - had a nightmare year last year

3. Paplebon - very solid year after switching to the NL

4. Rivera - season ending injury (although it was a bit of a fluke how it happened)

5. Wilson - season ending injury

6. Bell - complete disaster in every sense of the word after signing a HUGE contract, relieved of position

7. Storen - had elbow surgery, came back and blew a save in the playoffs

8. Putz - very solid year......resigned to a big contract on a non-contending team

9. Soria - complete disaster, tommy john in the offseason

10. Andrew Bailey - injured the majority of the season, wasn't very good at all when he came back

11. Huston Street - had a very solid year, then got injured in August, sat out until the last 3 games of the year and got rocked in those 3 games.

12. Jordan Walden - nightmare year, relieved of closing duties, never recovered

13. Ryan Madson - very solid year

14. Valverde - really bad year, relieved of closing duties in the playoffs

15. Joe Nathan - incredible bounce back year from a really bad injury the previous year

So of the top 15 closers (you can dispute the list if you want but it really doesn't do much good as this was similar to most experts lists heading into last season and it really just ignores the greater point) 6 were injured and either were out for the season, missed the majority of the season or weren't quite the same when they came back (Rivera, Wilson, Storen, Soria, and Street) and 6 were flat out terrible pretty much the whole season long (Valverde, Walden, Soria (he was terrible before he went out), Bell, Axford, Bailey).

The point is, closer's aren't always reliable over the course of a season, even the best ones, so when you find a solid, dependable reliever like Johnson, it behooves you to hold onto him. You can't just say "oh you could make Porcello a closer and he would do just as well because there is ZERO proof to back that up. You have to have a certain mentality to closer as CLEARLY evidenced by Gregg and his amazing disappearing acts whenever he was brought on with a game on the line.

That doesn't even get into injury from overuse or guys like Storen who throw their arms out trying to strike everyone out. Johnson knows what he can do, doesn't dial it up unless he needs too and some of you think since he isn't striking everyone out and throughly dominating hitters, it somehow means he isn't as valuable a pitcher or can't repeat his numbers from last year.

I'd rather have him than Chapman right now and do you know why? Because numbers don't tell the whole story! I think Champan is going to throw his freaking arm out either this year or next and will end up being a shooting star who falls to earth because he will never be the same, I just flat out don't see him being able to do what he does now long term (and there are many who would agree). Johnson isn't flashy, but he's solid and reliable. There is something to be said for that over the course of 162 games. The numbers, again, do not tell the whole story of how valuable Jimmy is to this team. Pitchers believe in him. He allows them to use their pitches more effectively because they know he has the 9th inning locked down and they do not have to go as deep into games.

He was the most valuable member of the strongest part of our team last year. A leader in every sense of the word. Again, leadership can't be measured in sabermetrics.

[Norfolk orioles]

Yes and thanks for your words of wisdom and leadership. It's very refreshing and inspiring:

-"People aren't using their brains."

-"Metrics don't tell the whole story"

-"Formulas don't manage baseball games"

-"I'll take a winner"

-"I would never trade a player because a formula says he might be more valuable"

-"Thank god some of you aren't running the team"

That's good stuff.

Try and understand that most of us stat guys were getting wedgies in the bathroom while you were laughing about it an banging the high school cheerleader. Most of us didn't play real baseball. I played some wiffleball with the girls across the street. Life got worse after high school and there are still lots of unresolved issues. Most of us post on here only to try and prove how smart we are instead of talking intelligently about real baseball with real men like yourself.

Thanks again, really. Where did you play ball at? Are you coaching these days? Is there any chance I can come over and play a round of catch?

I did play ball in high school although I certainly wasn't very good and definitely nothing to suggest I know any more about the game than you. But I do know that my swirly ability, sneak-farting ability and blatant, incessant "bench high fiving" certainly cannot be measured in sabermetrics lol.

[Can_of_corn]

Oh and if I really wanted too, I'm sure I could go back to the beginning of last season and find countless threads/posts from you "sabergeniuses" suggesting that we trade Adam Jones (and probably Matt Wieters too for that matter). to "get some value from him" because before last season, his metrics weren't nearly good enough to warrant signing to a long term contract on a non-contending team and that he "would probably just go elsewhere" and that we should just "get what we could from him" etc.

If most of you had your way, you would have traded Jones and last season NEVER would have happened. You were completely wrong about that move and it is my opinion that you are wrong about this one as well. You can point to hypothetical's in numbers all you want and since we will never know what any potential alternative outcome would yield (there is only reality), you can claim to be right or superior all you want with no real repercussions, but as I said, last year was statistically impossible according to any advanced metric, Jones should have been traded for parts since we were "never going to contend" and Johnson, a dynamic elite level closer (and yeah, he's one of the 4 or 5 best in the game so that makes him elite) should be shipped from a team that made the playoffs last year for a fifth starter with "potential" to another playoff team in the offseason.

Like I said, thank god none of you are running this team.

Btw....just thought this was interesting. Here were the top 15 fantasy "closers" ranked before last season. Now before you go insane and start the "fantasy baseball, get out of here!" crap, I'm not referencing this for fantasy baseball purposes!!! I'm pointing this out for a reason, and that reason is to prove that quality end of game pitching is NO SURE THING!!

1. Kimbrell - without a doubt the best current closer in the game

2. Axford - had a nightmare year last year

3. Paplebon - very solid year after switching to the NL

4. Rivera - season ending injury (although it was a bit of a fluke how it happened)

5. Wilson - season ending injury

6. Bell - complete disaster in every sense of the word after signing a HUGE contract, relieved of position

7. Storen - had elbow surgery, came back and blew a save in the playoffs

8. Putz - very solid year......resigned to a big contract on a non-contending team

9. Soria - complete disaster, tommy john in the offseason

10. Andrew Bailey - injured the majority of the season, wasn't very good at all when he came back

11. Huston Street - had a very solid year, then got injured in August, sat out until the last 3 games of the year and got rocked in those 3 games.

12. Jordan Walden - nightmare year, relieved of closing duties, never recovered

13. Ryan Madson - very solid year

14. Valverde - really bad year, relieved of closing duties in the playoffs

15. Joe Nathan - incredible bounce back year from a really bad injury the previous year

So of the top 15 closers (you can dispute the list if you want but it really doesn't do much good as this was similar to most experts lists heading into last season and it really just ignores the greater point) 6 were injured and either were out for the season, missed the majority of the season or weren't quite the same when they came back (Rivera, Wilson, Storen, Soria, and Street) and 6 were flat out terrible pretty much the whole season long (Valverde, Walden, Soria (he was terrible before he went out), Bell, Axford, Bailey).

The point is, closer's aren't always reliable over the course of a season, even the best ones, so when you find a solid, dependable reliever like Johnson, it behooves you to hold onto him. You can't just say "oh you could make Porcello a closer and he would do just as well because there is ZERO proof to back that up. You have to have a certain mentality to closer as CLEARLY evidenced by Gregg and his amazing disappearing acts whenever he was brought on with a game on the line.

That doesn't even get into injury from overuse or guys like Storen who throw their arms out trying to strike everyone out. Johnson knows what he can do, doesn't dial it up unless he needs too and some of you think since he isn't striking everyone out and throughly dominating hitters, it somehow means he isn't as valuable a pitcher or can't repeat his numbers from last year.

I'd rather have him than Chapman right now and do you know why? Because numbers don't tell the whole story! I think Champan is going to throw his freaking arm out either this year or next and will end up being a shooting star who falls to earth because he will never be the same, I just flat out don't see him being able to do what he does now long term (and there are many who would agree). Johnson isn't flashy, but he's solid and reliable. There is something to be said for that over the course of 162 games. The numbers, again, do not tell the whole story of how valuable Jimmy is to this team. Pitchers believe in him. He allows them to use their pitches more effectively because they know he has the 9th inning locked down and they do not have to go as deep into games.

He was the most valuable member of the strongest part of our team last year. A leader in every sense of the word. Again, leadership can't be measured in sabermetrics.

Please do, I would love to see where there was a movement to trade Jones before last season. I was actually posting on this board in that time period, unlike someone else I could mention, and I don't recall it.

Now onto the main part of your post. You give a list of the top 15 fantasy closers and then explain that since 12 of them disappointed that the O's should hold onto JJ (who will be on this year's version of the list). Don't you understand that you are helping prove our point? Relief pitching is so inconsistent, even at the top levels of performance, that trading a RP for a non-RP is often a good idea.

[crawjo]

I was in favor of trading Jones if the return package was right. But there was never an offer on the table that I thought was good enough (the Braves if I recall were offering Prado and Jurrjens).

Of course, the funny thing about that trade offer is that by most measures Prado had a better season last year than Jones did.

[Norfolk orioles]

There wasn't a movement per say but there was absolutely a thread about whether we should trade Adam, just as their was a thread about trading wieters.

I also wonder what some of you thought about the Guthrie trade as it happened? Did you bash it or support it.

I've been reading this site for several years but finally decided to start posting a couple days ago because I have no other sports to really care about right now.

As a non paying member, pretty sure I cannot search for threads. But to act like no one ever suggested those things is disingenuous at best.

And again, you are simply just assuming that Johnson will take a huge step back. While I don't think he will repeat his exact numbers from last year, I think he will still put up a very very solid season, he is a known quantity and we can count on him. He's in his prime and has proven he has what it takes for the last couple years.

What I posted about the top 15 doesn't prove anything other than that closers are unreliable outside of Mariano Rivera and that we have a pretty good one in Johnson that we can count on and should consider it a blessing, not a trade piece for a guy who might make our starting pitching only marginally better than what we currently have.

[Can_of_corn]

I was in favor of trading Jones if the return package was right. But there was never an offer on the table that I thought was good enough (the Braves if I recall were offering Prado and Jurrjens).

Of course, the funny thing about that trade offer is that by most measures Prado had a better season last year than Jones did.

Yes there was the Braves trade. I do not consider speculating on the merits of a trade that was actually being discussed to be anything like finding

countless threads/posts from you "sabergeniuses" suggesting that we trade Adam Jones.

.

[Norfolk orioles]

I was in favor of trading Jones if the return package was right. But there was never an offer on the table that I thought was good enough (the Braves if I recall were offering Prado and Jurrjens).

Of course, the funny thing about that trade offer is that by most measures Prado had a better season last year than Jones did.

Yeah and the problem with that is that a. Who plays cf for us last year with Jones gone, endy Chavez??? Yikes. And b. manny matcha do likely never gets called up and we probably don't make the playoffs without his spark and defense during the stretch run.

It's ok to admit you were wrong about wanting to trade jones and the numbers don't always get it right, as they didn't with jones. He made the leap that many people were questioning whether he'd ever make.

Thank god we used common sense and kept him when trade rumors were swirling.

[Norfolk orioles]

Some of our fans were willing to trade jones for Jair freaking jurrgens. Yikessssssss.

[Can_of_corn]

There wasn't a movement per say but there was absolutely a thread about whether we should trade Adam, just as their was a thread about trading wieters.

I also wonder what some of you thought about the Guthrie trade as it happened? Did you bash it or support it.

I've been reading this site for several years but finally decided to start posting a couple days ago because I have no other sports to really care about right now.

As a non paying member, pretty sure I cannot search for threads. But to act like no one ever suggested those things is disingenuous at best.

And again, you are simply just assuming that Johnson will take a huge step back. While I don't think he will repeat his exact numbers from last year, I think he will still put up a very very solid season, he is a known quantity and we can count on him. He's in his prime and has proven he has what it takes for the last couple years.

What I posted about the top 15 doesn't prove anything other than that closers are unreliable outside of Mariano Rivera and that we have a pretty good one in Johnson that we can count on and should consider it a blessing, not a trade piece for a guy who might make our starting pitching only marginally better than what we currently have.

You used the term "countless". That implies a movement.

I think I shrugged at the Guthrie trade. I know I wasn't happy about getting an expensive reliever (Lindstrom) back.

I am not assuming Johnson takes a huge step back. Odds are very good his save total will take a hit but that is, to a large degree, a matter of opportunities. What I do know is that the O's had five relief pitchers last season that all performed at a rather high level and if you take the save and GF columns out of the equation you couldn't pick JJ's season out of a lineup with the other four.

I am guessing the Giants thought Wilson was "a known quantity" "in his prime".

[Roll Tide]

I think the Orioles should sell high on Johnson. I'd be okay with Linstrom as our closer over Strop or Ayala. I don't think Porcello gets it done for me.

I'd prefer Castellanos, Kobernus, and Hoffman (sinkerballer that could eventually replace JJ)

If you twisted my arm on Porcello ..then I'd ask for Kobernus, and Eichorn.

[waroriole]

Some of our fans were willing to trade jones for Jair freaking jurrgens. Yikessssssss.

Who? I don't remember anyone being in favor of that.

[Can_of_corn]

I think the Orioles should sell high on Johnson. I'd be okay with Linstrom as our closer over Strop or Ayala. I don't think Porcello gets it done for me.

I'd prefer Castellanos, Kobernus, and Hoffman (sinkerballer that could eventually replace JJ)

If you twisted my arm on Porcello ..then I'd ask for Kobernus, and Eichorn.

Why does everyone forget about O'Day?

Who? I don't remember anyone being in favor of that.

It was a big thread, I am sure someone, at some point, thought it was a good idea. It certainly wouldn't be the oddest idea I have read on these boards.

[Stotle]

I think the Orioles should sell high on Johnson. I'd be okay with Linstrom as our closer over Strop or Ayala. I don't think Porcello gets it done for me.

I'd prefer Castellanos, Kobernus, and Hoffman (sinkerballer that could eventually replace JJ)

If you twisted my arm on Porcello ..then I'd ask for Kobernus, and Eichorn.

I don't think Johnson alone gets you Porcello. It certainly doesn't get you anywhere near Castellanos, let alone Castellanos plus some more.