Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[OK_Os_Fan]

I don't see how trading for a young pitcher that is improving every year and pitches more than 150 innings at a less than 5.0 era can be a bad addition.

JJ is nice as a closer, but can probably be replaced.

As good as the O's played last year another starter over 150 innings pitched sure wouldn't have hurt them. A few less moves for DD to make.

I'd go for a trade if it can be had.

[Os84]

I agree. I wouldn't doubt that we'd likely need to add something to this deal.

I disagree. I think Jim Johnson's value is much greater than Porcello's value at this point. JJ is one of the top closers in the league based on last year's performance. Rafael Soriano just signed a 2 year / 28M deal with the Nats. JJ is projected to earn around 17M over the next two years. That is a bargain for a top closer. Porcello is nothing more than a #4 starter at best (at this point). Could he become more than that? Sure, but he has not shown that just yet.

[Ruzious]

Did the Nats really give a 2/28 contract to Soriano? And they already have a closer. Ummm, I'm seeing Jim Johnson's future contract in a new light. It might be a good idea to trade before we have to pay him.

Welp, so much for the Nats needing a lefty reliever for Morse.

[DrungoHazewood]

A 24 year old, former first round pick with 4 years in the majors for a reliever.

I think that is a no brainer, and I don't think the Tigers would do it.

I'm certainly I could find a dozen former first round picks with 4 years in the majors at 24 who you wouldn't have traded a bag of peanuts for. Since he turned 25 Mark Prior has a 7.21 ERA. Casey Kotchman had one good year after 24. Adam Loewen, Scott Moore, Jeremy Hermida, James Loney... all first rounders, well established at 24, pretty well useless since then.

Heck we'll all excited about Tillman getting it at an older age than Porcello

Porcello's is just heading to his prime and could easily be a #2/#3 for the next 5-10 years.

I'd love me some Porcello

Don't think I'd necessarily count on a pitcher to have a nice, linear aging curve. He could peak at 27, or he could have already peaked at 20. There are a lot of pitchers who fit the Steve Avery mold; came up early, peaked at 21, 22, 23, and spent the next 10 years wondering how it all got away from them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Did the Nats really give a 2/28 contract to Soriano? And they already have a closer. Ummm, I'm seeing Jim Johnson's future contract in a new light. It might be a good idea to trade before we have to pay him.

Welp, so much for the Nats needing a lefty reliever for Morse.

Did they? Wow, that must be a fine punch in the gut for Tyler Clippard. Blow a playoff game for us, huh?

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm certainly I could find a dozen former first round picks with 4 years in the majors at 24 who you wouldn't have traded a bag of peanuts for. Since he turned 25 Mark Prior has a 7.21 ERA. Casey Kotchman had one good year after 24. Adam Loewen, Scott Moore, Jeremy Hermida, James Loney... all first rounders, well established at 24, pretty well useless since then.

Don't think I'd necessarily count on a pitcher to have a nice, linear aging curve. He could peak at 27, or he could have already peaked at 20. There are a lot of pitchers who fit the Steve Avery mold; came up early, peaked at 21, 22, 23, and spent the next 10 years wondering how it all got away from them.

Haters gonna hate.

You can't count on a linear aging curve, but you also can't really expect anything else to be more likely. Porcello is young, has a good pedigree, was rushed and held his own in the majors, and should be entering what are usually the prime years for pitchers. He's under team control.

Porcello could have been tearing up the minors this whole time instead of fighting tooth and nail in the majors and all of baseball would be rapt with excitement to see the #1 pitching prospect make his MLB debut in 2013.

[Os84]

Did they? Wow, that must be a fine punch in the gut for Tyler Clippard. Blow a playoff game for us, huh?

Here's a link to the Soriano signing:

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130115&content_id=40971364&vkey=news_was&c_id=was

[andrewrickli]

Looks good to me...

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22588063&c_id=mlb

[fearthenoodle]

Welp, so much for the Nats needing a lefty reliever for Morse.

Soriano doesn't really change the fact that the Nats are still without a reliable LHP in their bullpen.

Other fallout from Soriano to Washington could include Detroit stepping up their pursuit of a guy like JJ, since they had been linked to Soriano previously.

[Oh them O's]

I would do this deal. Jim Johnson is great, but Rick Porcello is 24, and I think got hurt a lot due too his defense which should be solid this year for the O's. We'd get many more innings out of Porcello.

Porcello-Building for future

Jim Johnson-Building for WS2013

[waroriole]

A 24 year old, former first round pick with 4 years in the majors for a reliever.

I think that is a no brainer, and I don't think the Tigers would do it.

You mean a guy who saved over 50 games last year for a guy who is a 4.50 ERA SP that can't strike anyone out? It works both ways when you do that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Did the Nats really give a 2/28 contract to Soriano? And they already have a closer. Ummm, I'm seeing Jim Johnson's future contract in a new light. It might be a good idea to trade before we have to pay him.

Welp, so much for the Nats needing a lefty reliever for Morse.

They really love giving Scott Boras money, don't they? Yeesh.

If we can re-sign Lindstrom first, I'd be down with trading JJ for Porcello. They might even be desperate enough at this point to throw a C+ prospect of some type in with him.

[webbrick2010]

You mean a guy who saved over 50 games last year for a guy who is a 4.50 ERA SP that can't strike anyone out? It works both ways when you do that.

but yeah I'd trade a 51 save closer (over hyped stat) who also can't strike anyone out for a 24 yo starter who has averaged > 150 innings a year for 4 consecutive years.

Look at it this way... how good a closer would Porcello be. I'm thinking a lot of starters become excellent bullpen arms when they are not quite good enough to start.

Putting it another way... Porcello could probably fill Johnson's roll, Johnson could not start and pitch > 170 innings next year.

Promising starter for 30 year old reliever

No brainer.

[crawjo]

You mean a guy who saved over 50 games last year for a guy who is a 4.50 ERA SP that can't strike anyone out? It works both ways when you do that.

Citing the number of saves Johnson had last year is really very meaningless. Valverde had similar numbers two years ago and it didn't mean a damn thing last year. Joe Borowski had 45 saves in 2007 and was out of baseball a year later. Johnson is better than that, but I also don't think he's going to match what he did last year. I think almost anytime you get the chance to trade a guy like that for a young starter with upside, you do it. If Johnson was at the level of, say, Craig Kimbrel, that would be a different story.

[crawjo]

but yeah I'd trade a 51 save closer (over hyped stat) who also can't strike anyone out for a 24 yo starter who has averaged > 150 innings a year for 4 consecutive years.

Look at it this way... how good a closer would Porcello be. I'm thinking a lot of starters become excellent bullpen arms when they are not quite good enough to start.

Putting it another way... Porcello could probably fill Johnson's roll, Johnson could not start and pitch > 170 innings next year.

Promising starter for 30 year old reliever

No brainer.

Yup. I tend to think of closers as "failed starters." It's a lot easier to go from starting to closing than the other way around.