Before the book is completely closed on Mark Reynolds

[OFFNY]

Who said this? "He actually dropped 4 balls right in his hands last year. 2 at first base, and 2 in the outfield."

I said it. And if you want to dismiss that as a factor, fine. Forget about the 2 dropped balls in the outfield, OK ??? Let's just stick with your declaration/statement. You made a direct comparison of the 2 players' errors last season at their position(s).

Reynolds had as many E's at 3B in the few innings he played there, as Davis had for the whole season at 3 different positions. Davis 4E's 1B, 1E RF, 1E LF. Reynolds 6E's 3B, 5E's 1B.

You made a major omission in your comparison of their errors committed at first base, which is the position that Reynolds played last year, and the position in which Davis will be taking over this year, which I correctly pointed out. Reynolds made one more error than Davis did at first base last year in more than 2 and a half as many chances (971 to 374.)

If you want to compare their career numbers at first base also, fine, but that's not what you said in your post/comparison.

.

[notyourbuddy]

More importantly, we now have no one on the roster who will pelt our players in the face with sunflower seeds after a big hit.

[OFFNY]

More importantly, we now have no one on the roster who will pelt our players in the face with sunflower seeds after a big hit.

I forgot about that. Reynolds had a real talent for that, which cannot be easily duplicated.

We may have to settle for Kevin Gausman pelting teammates with powdered doughnuts, assuming that he makes the team at some point during the season.

[brianod]

I don't have the stats but from what I saw with my eyes last year, Davis was a below average 1b while Reynolds was an above average 1b. I believe defensive metrics, especially for 1bs, are flawed so I don't really care about the stats. Having said that, I expect Davis to improve with experience and repetitions. Reynolds was an abysmal offensive player if you throw out two torrid weeks and I believe that DD let him go because of that. Reynolds was great when a bad pitcher made a mistake. Or, he was great when he got hot. But, you couldn't depend on him. I believe that was the single biggest factor in the Orioles not resigning him. If a good pitcher made a good pitch to Mark Reynolds, there was a snowballs chance in hell that he would do something positive with it. If you are a gm or manager, you want players that can beat other good players at their best.

[pdiddy]

I don't have the stats but from what I saw with my eyes last year, Davis was a below average 1b while Reynolds was an above average 1b. I believe defensive metrics, especially for 1bs, are flawed so I don't really care about the stats. Having said that, I expect Davis to improve with experience and repetitions. Reynolds was an abysmal offensive player if you throw out two torrid weeks and I believe that DD let him go because of that. Reynolds was great when a bad pitcher made a mistake. Or, he was great when he got hot. But, you couldn't depend on him. I believe that was the single biggest factor in the Orioles not resigning him. If a good pitcher made a good pitch to Mark Reynolds, there was a snowballs chance in hell that he would do something positive with it. If you are a gm or manager, you want players that can beat other good players at their best.

Well said. Davis is just as likely to get on a tear this year but doesn't have as much potential for the bottom to fall out as Reynolds. DD was on MLB radio a month or so ago and talked about how he thought he'd see strides from Davis and continued improvement in plate discipline from Jones and Wieters. My guess is just what you said...he didn't think he could count on Reynolds as much.

Mark did make some sick plays at first though. I don't dislike the guy...he's just not what a playoff team has as full time player....which is what I hope we are.

[Can_of_corn]

Well said. Davis is just as likely to get on a tear this year but doesn't have as much potential for the bottom to fall out as Reynolds. DD was on MLB radio a month or so ago and talked about how he thought he'd see strides from Davis and continued improvement in plate discipline from Jones and Wieters. My guess is just what you said...he didn't think he could count on Reynolds as much.

Mark did make some sick plays at first though. I don't dislike the guy...he's just not what a playoff team has as full time player....which is what I hope we are.

Care to explain this one? Davis put up a 571 OPS in 2010, I think it is reasonable to assume that is his floor. Reynolds has never been under 753 OPS. If anything Reynolds' ability to take a walk would mean he is the one less likely to have "the bottom fall out".

[webbrick2010]

Well said. Davis is just as likely to get on a tear this year but doesn't have as much potential for the bottom to fall out as Reynolds. DD was on MLB radio a month or so ago and talked about how he thought he'd see strides from Davis and continued improvement in plate discipline from Jones and Wieters. My guess is just what you said...he didn't think he could count on Reynolds as much.

Mark did make some sick plays at first though. I don't dislike the guy...he's just not what a playoff team has as full time player....which is what I hope we are.

How do you figure that Davis is less likely to have "the bottom fall out". Reynolds has a six year track history. He has had over 590 AB's 4 times over 155 games 3 times.

His 162 game average .235/.332/.475/.807 34HR's 95 RBI's. Last year was the worst of his career as he battle an oblique injury for several months. He is very likely to return to his career average this year and very unlikely to have "the bottom fall out:

On the other hand Chris Davis was a regular for the first time last year, failed defensively at 1B. I think it is much more likely that Davis falls off a cliff as he hasn't much of a track record.http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/images/smilies/cool.gif

[Dark Helmet]

I was one that wanted Reynolds back. The lineup will miss his presence more then I think many are giving it. The ability to work the count and the fear factor that a mistake will get hit 400 ft alone will be missed. Add to the fact that the team defense turned around with Machado at 3rd and he at first. And before the point is made that getting Reynolds off 3rd helped more than anything, think about how many errant throws Reynolds saved over at 1B. I just think some are dismissing the effect that losing Reynolds will have to easily. Just my opinion.

[Frobby]

Reynolds was an abysmal offensive player if you throw out two torrid weeks and I believe that DD let him go because of that. Reynolds was great when a bad pitcher made a mistake. Or, he was great when he got hot. But, you couldn't depend on him. I believe that was the single biggest factor in the Orioles not resigning him. If a good pitcher made a good pitch to Mark Reynolds, there was a snowballs chance in hell that he would do something positive with it. If you are a gm or manager, you want players that can beat other good players at their best.

Let me take on these two points. First, "Reynolds was an abysmal offensive player if you throw out two torrid weeks." I'm sick of this argument. Let's look at Reynolds by month:

April: .467 OPS

May: 1.042 OPS

June: .749 OPS

July: .643 OPS

August: .983 OPS

September/Oct.: .772 OPS

Or, here's another way to look at it:

April: .467 OPS

May: 1.042 OPS

May-June: .845 OPS

May-July: .762 OPS

May-August: .826 OPS

May-October: .811 OPS

You see a guy who had two torrid weeks. I see a guy who had four horrid weeks to start the season that masked a pretty decent performance thereafter. I think at the end of the day, the final numbers (.763 OPS) are what they are. It wasn't a good year for Reynolds, but his chances of having a better offensive year in 2013 are just as good (probably better) than Davis' chances of having a better defensive year at 1B in 2013.

Now the point that Reynolds only hits bad pitches off bad pitchers. What evidence do you have to support that? Let's start with the obvious: almost all hitters do better off bad pitchers than they do against good ones. But beyond that, what supports your statement? The pitcher Reynolds face the most in 2012 was C.C. Sabathia: .300/.462/.700 in 13 PA. He hit .500/.625/1.000 off Jon Lester, .400/.625/.1.000 off Clay Buckholz. He had 2 homers against Phil Hughes, and the other homers came against Sabathia, Lester, Buchholz, Kuroda, Villanueva, Cook, Janssen, Morton, Robertson, Beckett, Chamberlain, Lincoln, Diamond, Lowe, Richards, W. Davis, Zimmermann, Millwood, Varreno, J. Hughes, and Melancon. To me, that's a pretty representative mix of both good and bad pitchers. He killed the Yankees (1.214 OPS) and Red Sox (1.232 OPS) -- isn't that what we want? He had an .831 OPS in high leverage situations, .970 OPS in RISP situations, 1.130 with RISP and two outs. I just see no evidence to support your statement that Reynolds only hits bad pitches off bad pitchers (moreso than any hitter), and the fact is, Reynolds was pretty clutch.

At the end of the day, Reynolds had a .763 OPS with 23 homers, and that's not what you want from him. I get that. But let's not make it worse than it was.

[brianod]

Let me take on these two points. First, "Reynolds was an abysmal offensive player if you throw out two torrid weeks." I'm sick of this argument. Let's look at Reynolds by month:

April: .467 OPS

May: 1.042 OPS

June: .749 OPS

July: .643 OPS

August: .983 OPS

September/Oct.: .772 OPS

Or, here's another way to look at it:

April: .467 OPS

May: 1.042 OPS

May-June: .845 OPS

May-July: .762 OPS

May-August: .826 OPS

May-October: .811 OPS

You see a guy who had two torrid weeks. I see a guy who had four horrid weeks to start the season that masked a pretty decent performance thereafter. I think at the end of the day, the final numbers (.763 OPS) are what they are. It wasn't a good year for Reynolds, but his chances of having a better offensive year in 2013 are just as good (probably better) than Davis' chances of having a better defensive year at 1B in 2013.

Now the point that Reynolds only hits bad pitches off bad pitchers. What evidence do you have to support that? Let's start with the obvious: almost all hitters do better off bad pitchers than they do against good ones. But beyond that, what supports your statement? The pitcher Reynolds face the most in 2012 was C.C. Sabathia: .300/.462/.700 in 13 PA. He hit .500/.625/1.000 off Jon Lester, .400/.625/.1.000 off Clay Buckholz. He had 2 homers against Phil Hughes, and the other homers came against Sabathia, Lester, Buchholz, Kuroda, Villanueva, Cook, Janssen, Morton, Robertson, Beckett, Chamberlain, Lincoln, Diamond, Lowe, Richards, W. Davis, Zimmermann, Millwood, Varreno, J. Hughes, and Melancon. To me, that's a pretty representative mix of both good and bad pitchers. He killed the Yankees (1.214 OPS) and Red Sox (1.232 OPS) -- isn't that what we want? He had an .831 OPS in high leverage situations, .970 OPS in RISP situations, 1.130 with RISP and two outs. I just see no evidence to support your statement that Reynolds only hits bad pitches off bad pitchers (moreso than any hitter), and the fact is, Reynolds was pretty clutch.

At the end of the day, Reynolds had a .763 OPS with 23 homers, and that's not what you want from him. I get that. But let's not make it worse than it was.

ok. Don't forget to add the postseason where Reynolds was 3-22 with one walk and 10 K's. I know he wasn't the only one to come up small but that is really bad.

[CSB Jack]

ok. Don't forget to add the postseason where Reynolds was 3-22 with one walk and 10 K's. I know he wasn't the only one to come up small but that is really bad.

Yeah, that's bad. Almost as bad as A-Rod going 3-27 with 12 K's and getting pinch hit for multiple times. But not quite.

Still, anyone can get hot or cold for one series or a week or two. I believe if Davis plays 1B consistently this year we will be satisfied with his defense. I believe if Reynolds played 1B again this year he'd make fewer flashy plays in part because he would be better positioned to make the play look more routine. If Reynolds was back he'd probably end up taking AB away from Betemit more than anyone else. Bottom line, while it would be nice to have Reynolds' power potential back with the team I don't know that his value (based on offense and defense) would be worth his contract. If he can adjust to being a DH, however, that would alter the equation a bit.

And now I for one am going to close the book on Reynolds because he is no longer with the team. Best of luck, Sheriff; may you continue to mash against the Yankees.

[Frobby]

ok. Don't forget to add the postseason where Reynolds was 3-22 with one walk and 10 K's. I know he wasn't the only one to come up small but that is really bad.

Agreed, but he was far from the only one, as you say. I'm not basing any decisions on what happened in the postseason.

Anyway, I don't want to spend too much time on this. My position at the start of the offseason was simple: I either wanted them to keep Reynolds, or sign someone clearly better. They did neither. It could still work out for them if Reimild, Davis, Betemit and McLouth all stay pretty healthy and absorb the PA Reynolds would have gotten.

[webbrick2010]

will go down as the steal of the off-season

and all the pundits will be jumping on the loss of Reynolds as an explanation of the O's sub .500 season

[pdiddy]

Care to explain this one? Davis put up a 571 OPS in 2010, I think it is reasonable to assume that is his floor. Reynolds has never been under 753 OPS. If anything Reynolds' ability to take a walk would mean he is the one less likely to have "the bottom fall out".

I can mostly explain that I hadn't had much coffee yet:eek:

Reynolds does take a walk but doesn't hit for avg, if his power drops off that the bottom falling I was thinking about. I don't have any data to predict it will, so I should have caveated that.

I do think Davis is still improving. 2010 wasa SSS for him, so I don't think that's his floor. If his discipline improves, we know he has the power and at 27 isnt approaching a decline any time soon.

[Can_of_corn]

I can mostly explain that I hadn't had much coffee yet:eek:

Reynolds does take a walk but doesn't hit for avg, if his power drops off that the bottom falling I was thinking about. I don't have any data to predict it will, so I should have caveated that.

I do think Davis is still improving. 2010 wasa SSS for him, so I don't think that's his floor. If his discipline improves, we know he has the power and at 27 isnt approaching a decline any time soon.

I have had to defend a few pre-coffee comments myself over the years.