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So how about Brian Roberts today?


markakis8

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Again, when I was reminding people (in the other thread) how good he was for us, it was more to reflect that we should wish him the best and be encouraged by the fact he's doing what he can to come back and help this team instead of finding every little negative thing we can about him.

He's not a lost cause.

I was at his comeback game with friends. We would not have missed it for anything. I always pull for Brian Roberts.

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He has had a bad throwing arm since he got hurt in 2005. In fact his lack of arm strength is why he got moved off Short Stop in the first place.

Right but you don't need a great arm at second base. Brian just needs to keep working on making accurate throws and turning the double play a bit quicker to make up for that lack of arm strength. His subpar range is an issue though.

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I'm seeing a lot of rigid thinking on both sides of this discussion. Obviously, it would be silly to expect BRob to be anywhere near as good as he was in 2009, the last year he was fully healthy. I did some looking recently, and of the players who are starters at age 31, only about 25% are still starters at age 35. At the same time, BRob was an excellent player in 2009, so he doesn't have to be as good as he was then in order to be a useful player. I'm not very optimistic about BRob this year, but I just don't see a good reason to write him off on February 25.

By the way, he didn't have the strongest arm in the world, but there was nothing inadequate about his arm in 2006-10. His injury in 2005 was to his left elbow, and had nothing to do with his throwing.

Just give the guy 5-6 weeks to show what he can do this spring, and then we can evaluate what his role on this team should be (if any).

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What makes you think he can hit 750-800?

Lets looks at what Roberts did compared to the rest of baseball his last few healthy seasons.

2007- 808 OPS L-Avg 761

2008- 828 OPS L-Avg 749

2009- 807 OPS L-Avg 751

Roughly 50-55 points over league average. Good, solid hitter.

2012 League OPS 724. If Roberts doesn't decline at all from his 2007-2009 level we are still looking at 774-779 based on last season's level of offense.

Your offensive projections are unrealistic.

It's no more unrealistic than you wanting to start Casilla and his .640 career OPS with above average defense and hoping he can perform to a "2010-2011" level.

Do I think Brian Roberts can still have an OPS of .750? Yes. I think he can have an OPS of .800. He has proven he can do it many times when healthy. I'd be willing to wager if he plays 110-120 games this year, he'll have an OPS of at least .750. That's not unrealistic at all.

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I'm seeing a lot of rigid thinking on both sides of this discussion. Obviously, it would be silly to expect BRob to be anywhere near as good as he was in 2009, the last year he was fully healthy. I did some looking recently, and of the players who are starters at age 31, only about 25% are still starters at age 35. At the same time, BRob was an excellent player in 2009, so he doesn't have to be as good as he was then in order to be a useful player. I'm not very optimistic about BRob this year, but I just don't see a good reason to write him off on February 25.

By the way, he didn't have the strongest arm in the world, but there was nothing inadequate about his arm in 2006-10. His injury in 2005 was to his left elbow, and had nothing to do with his throwing.

Just give the guy 5-6 weeks to show what he can do this spring, and then we can evaluate what his role on this team should be (if any).

Sounds good to me.

I'll be the first one to admit when statistically Brian Roberts is not a better option than the people behind him, trust me.

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It's no more unrealistic than you wanting to start Casilla and his .640 career OPS with above average defense and hoping he can perform to a "2010-2011" level.

Do I think Brian Roberts can still have an OPS of .750? Yes. I think he can have an OPS of .800. He has proven he can do it many times when healthy. I'd be willing to wager if he plays 110-120 games this year, he'll have an OPS of at least .750. That's not unrealistic at all.

Did you even look at my post?

How can you look at his performance compared to the MLB average, factor in age and think he he has a realistic chance to put up an 800 OPS in the current offensive climate?

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I agree he could be above average this year. He has something to prove. He was once one of the best leadoff guys in the game, just about 200 games ago really. I know that's a stretch. But can you imagine Camden Yards and the increased attendance this year going crazy every time BRob doubles. He'll feed off that.

All that said, I wonder if Buck is looking at this as some kind of unique challenge as to how to make this work. It's hard to see him removing Brian from the roster if he's healthy.

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Did you even look at my post?

How can you look at his performance compared to the MLB average, factor in age and think he he has a realistic chance to put up an 800 OPS in the current offensive climate?

B/c I believe. How can Jamie Moyer win 16 games at the age of 45 and 12 games at the age of 46? How can Eric Davis hit .327 with 28 HR at the age of 36 after being almost non-existent the previous 6 years? How can Derek Jeter bounce back from hitting below .300 in consecutive years at 36 and 37 and hit over .310 with over 200 hits at 38? How did Andres Galarraga sit out an entire year b/c of cancer at the age of 38 and come back at hit .300 with almost 30 HR at age 39?

Brian Roberts, like all the other previous players I mentioned, played at an All-Star level before their injury or mediocre seasons and performed either adequately or at an All-Star level AFTER as well.

Since 2004, Brian Roberts never had a full healthy season where he didn't perform at an AS level, or at the very least been above average. So if fully healthy, I have no reason to believe he can't perform at that level again.

There's nothing wrong with a fan believing. Especially when we all want the same thing.

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Insane question: Let's say BRob is raking at the plate but sucking wind at 2nd. Like, badly. Then what? He becomes a reserve infielder, pinch hitter/DH type? I don't think Buck/DD have much patience for defensive gaffs. They can turn games quickly, and this team is build on pitching and defense for the most part.

Just look at what happened when Manny came up last year, and Nate entered left field.

This is a good question that got lost in all the pessimistic/optimistic judgments ;)

Personally, in that scenario I'd like to see him become the full time DH sending both Betemit and Reimold/McLouth (whichever one has lost the LF job) out of an every day playing position. I have little hope that he'll rake at the plate but if he is and he really does suck at defense, I'd rather have Castilla's glove than Betemit or Reimold's bat.

...and I'm a BIG supporter of Reimold's bat and Betemit's split against righties.

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B/c I believe. How can Jamie Moyer win 16 games at the age of 45 and 12 games at the age of 46? How can Eric Davis his .327 with 28 HR at the age of 36 after being almost non-existent the previous 6 years? How can Derek Jeter bounce back from hitting below .300 in consecutive years at 36 and 37 and hit over .310 with over 200 hits at 38? How did Andres Galarraga sit out an entire year b/c of cancer at the age of 38 and come back at hit .300 with almost 30 HR at age 39?

Brian Roberts, like all the other previous players I mentioned, played at an All-Star level before their injury or mediocre seasons performed either adequately or at an All-Star level AFTER as well.

Since 2004, Brian Roberts never had a full healthy season where he didn't perform at an AS level, or at the very least been above average. So if fully healthy, I have no reason to believe he can't perform at that level again.

Well I found out when the Jehovah Witnesses came to the house when I was a child that reason can not have a rational discussion with faith so I am out of here.

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Well I found out when the Jehovah Witnesses came to the house when I was a child that reason can not have a rational discussion with faith so I am out of here.

Clever. I could say the same thing about skinheads who think every one that isn't white and believes what they do are "scum" and should die a horrible death.

See? I can be clever too.

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When he said 75 percent of old Brian Roberts did you really think he meant 75 percent of the WAR of his second best season? Or would a more reasonable conclusion be 75 percent of Roberts from 2003-09 (all of the seasons he played more than 80 games)? Because that Roberts averaged a 3.8 WAR.

I don't know, that's why I asked him what he meant by the comment "I'll take 75% of the old Brian Roberts over Casilla". I have similar concerns to COC that we might be looking at replacement level player. In which case I'm more comfortable with Casilla and company. Doesn't mean I'm rooting against Brain Roberts or curious to see how ST plays out and how Roberts looks.

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"The candle burns brighter just before it flames out", could refer equally to Roberts or his detracters. I'm willing to wait and see how he looks in ST before I decide who should be our OD 2B. But if it were tomorrow, I know which of Roberts, Casilla, Flaherty or Navarro, I'd be starting.

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