The Rivera love is sickening

[Tony-OH]

[incubus]

I'm not a Rivera fan, and I'll get some backlash for this, but I'm sure there were a lot of non-Baltimore fans out there that said this same type of stuff about our Iron Man. Every city he went to he got gifts and praise, etc. Can you imagine if Mo comes here and the O's honored him with a gift on the pitchers mound of OPACY before a game? Because that's EXACTLY what teams for doing for Cal! It was really ridiculous when you stop and think about it.

One could argue that the entire MLB owed Cal a debt of gratitude for pulling them out of the gutter, not once but twice. It was because of Cal's streak that Angelos was so animate about not using replacement players in 95. Angelos helped broker the deal that ended the strike supposedly to preserve Cal's streak.

Then again after the first steroid scandal, Cal's retirement drew attention away from that giant pink elephant in the room.

Heck MLB probably tried to make it a grand spectacle for that reason alone. "Hey don't look at what I'm doing over here, look at what's going on over there."

[Moose Milligan]

Ahh yes. The transitive property of Suck. I think it applies here.

In all honesty though, Mo is my favorite current Yankee, and it's not close. He's a classy dude, and never really displayed any characteristics of the Yankee Elitists like Jeter. He just quietly went about dominating the 9th inning for a helluva long time. He's not the third best Yankee of all time, but he could be considered a Top 10 player for that franchise. That's extremely high praise, but it's also not a stretch. To do what he did at that level for that long is nothing short of incredible. Kudos to him for a spectacular career.

Now back to your regularly scheduled Yankee hatred.

Yeah, it will blow hearing about Mo's last year 18 times this year (or whatever the number is), but at the same time, the rest of the sports world had to deal with the same thing with Cal and Ray Lewis, although his wasn't a full-season retirement parade through the NFL. So I guess you kinda have to take the good with the bad and be thankful when the season is over and the Yankees finish in 4th place in the AL East knowing we'll never have to face Rivera ever again.

I don't think he's a top 10...

Ruth

Gehrig

Mantle

DiMaggio

Berra

Jeter

Ford

Reggie

Lefty Gomez

Mattingly

Might even swap out Mattingly for Bill Dickey.

[Il BuonO]

I don't. It's already (roughly) double-counting their impact because of leverage. Remember, a modern closer almost never throws 80 innings anymore, and they never have to face a batter a 2nd time in a game. They never have a situation where they have to throw at 80% or 90% because they know they're trying to go through the lineup two or three times and throw 100+ pitches.

Just look at where most closers came from - they were minor league starters who didn't have the durability/pitch selection/quality to start in the majors. You know why Lee Smith was a closer? His last year as a full-time starter he had a 5.98 ERA with 128 BBs and 71 Ks in 155 innings. In AA. Jim Johnson's last year as a starter he was 6-12 with the 7th-best starter ERA on the sub-.500 Norfolk Tides. Hell, look at Tommy Hunter. Terrible starter. Move him to the pen and all of a sudden he starts pumping 97 mph heat.

Every time I see a closer I think that any decent starter could rack up 30+ saves.

Now... Mariano Rivera is hands-down the best 9th-inning-only closer in history, with "history" in this case being roughly 1980-present. I'd put him in the Hall. But you'd have a heck of a time convincing me that he's been as valuable as Andre Dawson, much less Mickey Mantle.

Sorry for responding to this post twice in two different ways... but compare relief pitchers to pinch hitters. Mark Sweeney, for example. Sweeney has pinch hit 799 times in his career, and created 99 runs in this role, an all-time record (or at least as far back as current data goes). Sweeney also has a disproportionate share of his career PAs in the 7th inning on, and a disproportionate share of PAs in high- and medium-leverage situations.

You could probably come up with a reasonable argument that Sweeney was 20 or 25 or even more wins above replacement in that role. He's ususally batting for a pitcher who's OPSing .300, or a very weak-hitting middle infielder. Arguably the best pinch hitter ever, someone who consistently came up in the key moments of close games and delevered disproportionately impactful results. Just like a closer.

Obviously 799 times pinch hitting isn't quite the same as 799 innings/games as a closer. But nobody even begins to consider Mark Sweeney an all-time great, or even someone worthy of an expensive contract, while closers who're pretty good for a handful of years and don't really register in value metrics get $8M, $10M, $12M a year and the ones who last 15 years get HOF consideration.

Both great posts...must spread rep.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think he's a top 10...

Ruth

Gehrig

Mantle

DiMaggio

Berra

Jeter

Ford

Reggie

Lefty Gomez

Mattingly

Might even swap out Mattingly for Bill Dickey.

This is pretty interesting... in terms of career value just for the Yankees, there are precious few inner-circle Hall types. They actually have a stunningly small number of career Yankees who were really great. If you set the line at 60 rWAR, which is roughly kinda, sorta a good mark for today (right in between Andre Dawson and Tim Raines, for example), the Yanks only have five position players who've cleared that mark as Yankees (Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Jeter). And zero pitchers.

Yogi and Dickey get graded on a little curve (IMO) since they were catchers, and they're at 52 and 56. That's pretty clear HOF territory for them. But Willie Randolph is actually next on the list at 51.

There are quite a few Yanks who you think of as All Time Greats who basically had half a HOF career in NY, then played a while elsewhere. Tony Lazzeri and Joe Gordon were kind of marginal HOFers who only complied 30-some wins in NY. And a bunch of guys like Munson and Keller and Mattingly who looked good for a while then were done by 30 or so.

Rivera is actually the career leader in Yanks rWAR for pitchers, at 52. 2nd is Whitey at 50, and third is actually Pettitte at 46. Mike Mussina is 9th on their list at 33, and his career total of 78 is 26 rWAR more than any pitcher compiled in pinstripes. Mussina's Oriole career was about as valuable as Ron Guidry's entire career.

I don't know... I guess I expected them to have a whole team of inner circle HOF Yankees, and they don't look that different than the Orioles (who have four no-doubters who spent most of their careers in Baltimore in half the time and 1/10th the championships).

[Frobby]

This is pretty interesting... in terms of career value just for the Yankees, there are precious few inner-circle Hall types. They actually have a stunningly small number of career Yankees who were really great. If you set the line at 60 rWAR, which is roughly kinda, sorta a good mark for today (right in between Andre Dawson and Tim Raines, for example), the Yanks only have five position players who've cleared that mark as Yankees (Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Jeter). And zero pitchers.

Yogi and Dickey get graded on a little curve (IMO) since they were catchers, and they're at 52 and 56. That's pretty clear HOF territory for them. But Willie Randolph is actually next on the list at 51.

There are quite a few Yanks who you think of as All Time Greats who basically had half a HOF career in NY, then played a while elsewhere. Tony Lazzeri and Joe Gordon were kind of marginal HOFers who only complied 30-some wins in NY. And a bunch of guys like Munson and Keller and Mattingly who looked good for a while then were done by 30 or so.

Rivera is actually the career leader in Yanks rWAR for pitchers, at 52. 2nd is Whitey at 50, and third is actually Pettitte at 46. Mike Mussina is 9th on their list at 33, and his career total of 78 is 26 rWAR more than any pitcher compiled in pinstripes. Mussina's Oriole career was about as valuable as Ron Guidry's entire career.

I don't know... I guess I expected them to have a whole team of inner circle HOF Yankees, and they don't look that different than the Orioles (who have four no-doubters who spent most of their careers in Baltimore in half the time and 1/10th the championships).

I've always thought Whitey Ford was a bit overrated, but I'm surprised his WAR total is that low. .690 winning percentage, 133 ERA+ sounds pretty good to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've always thought Whitey Ford was a bit overrated, but I'm surprised his WAR total is that low. .690 winning percentage, 133 ERA+ sounds pretty good to me.

I think part of it was the way Casey used him. Casey never really had a set rotation, mixing and matching starters for different reasons like opponent and to cover doubleheaders. Whitey made his debut in 1950, and his career high in games started through 1960 was 33, with an average of 26. Only at the age of 32 when Casey was gone did Whitey get used like a normal starter in a four-man rotation.

Through his first six full years Whitey made 167 starts. Jeremy Guthrie's first six years he made 182.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've always thought Whitey Ford was a bit overrated, but I'm surprised his WAR total is that low. .690 winning percentage, 133 ERA+ sounds pretty good to me.

This may spark an interesting conversation:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Rk[/th][th]Player[/th][th]IP[/th][th]ERA+[/th][th]WAR[/th][th]From[/th][th]To[/th][th]Age[/th][th]G[/th][th]GS[/th][th]CG[/th][th]SHO[/th][th]GF[/th][th]W[/th][th]L[/th][th]W-L%[/th][th]SV[/th][th]H[/th][th]R[/th][th]ER[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]ERA[/th][th]HR[/th][th]BF[/th][th]IBB[/th][th]HBP[/th][th]BK[/th][th]WP[/th][th]Tm[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]1[/td][td]Curt Schilling[/td][td]3261.0[/td][td]127[/td][td]76.9[/td][td]1988[/td][td]2007[/td][td]21-40[/td][td]569[/td][td]436[/td][td]83[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]216[/td][td]146[/td][td].597[/td][td]22[/td][td]2998[/td][td]1318[/td][td]1253[/td][td]711[/td][td]3116[/td][td]3.46[/td][td]347[/td][td]13284[/td][td]43[/td][td]52[/td][td]8[/td][td]72[/td][td]BAL-HOU-PHI-TOT-ARI-BOS[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]2[/td][td]Kevin Brown[/td][td]3256.1[/td][td]127[/td][td]64.5[/td][td]1986[/td][td]2005[/td][td]21-40[/td][td]486[/td][td]476[/td][td]72[/td][td]17[/td][td]1[/td][td]211[/td][td]144[/td][td].594[/td][td]0[/td][td]3079[/td][td]1357[/td][td]1185[/td][td]901[/td][td]2397[/td][td]3.28[/td][td]208[/td][td]13542[/td][td]42[/td][td]139[/td][td]15[/td][td]108[/td][td]TEX-BAL-FLA-SDP-LAD-NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]3[/td][td]Mordecai Brown[/td][td]3172.1[/td][td]139[/td][td]51.7[/td][td]1903[/td][td]1916[/td][td]26-39[/td][td]481[/td][td]332[/td][td]271[/td][td]55[/td][td]138[/td][td]239[/td][td]130[/td][td].648[/td][td]49[/td][td]2708[/td][td]1044[/td][td]725[/td][td]673[/td][td]1375[/td][td]2.06[/td][td]43[/td][td]12422[/td][td][/td][td]61[/td][td]4[/td][td]61[/td][td]STL-CHC-CIN-TOT-CHI[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]4[/td][td]Whitey Ford[/td][td]3170.1[/td][td]133[/td][td]50.6[/td][td]1950[/td][td]1967[/td][td]21-38[/td][td]498[/td][td]438[/td][td]156[/td][td]45[/td][td]35[/td][td]236[/td][td]106[/td][td].690[/td][td]10[/td][td]2766[/td][td]1107[/td][td]967[/td][td]1086[/td][td]1956[/td][td]2.75[/td][td]228[/td][td]13036[/td][td]44[/td][td]28[/td][td]5[/td][td]75[/td][td]NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]5[/td][td]Stan Coveleski[/td][td]3082.0[/td][td]127[/td][td]60.7[/td][td]1912[/td][td]1928[/td][td]22-38[/td][td]450[/td][td]385[/td][td]224[/td][td]38[/td][td]52[/td][td]215[/td][td]142[/td][td].602[/td][td]21[/td][td]3055[/td][td]1227[/td][td]990[/td][td]802[/td][td]981[/td][td]2.89[/td][td]66[/td][td]12729[/td][td][/td][td]30[/td][td]1[/td][td]35[/td][td]PHA-CLE-WSH-NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]6[/td][td]Hal Newhouser[/td][td]2993.0[/td][td]130[/td][td]55.8[/td][td]1939[/td][td]1955[/td][td]18-34[/td][td]488[/td][td]374[/td][td]212[/td][td]33[/td][td]79[/td][td]207[/td][td]150[/td][td].580[/td][td]26[/td][td]2674[/td][td]1197[/td][td]1016[/td][td]1249[/td][td]1796[/td][td]3.06[/td][td]136[/td][td]12648[/td][td]1[/td][td]19[/td][td]7[/td][td]65[/td][td]DET-CLE[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]7[/td][td]Tommy Bridges[/td][td]2826.1[/td][td]126[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]1930[/td][td]1946[/td][td]23-39[/td][td]424[/td][td]362[/td][td]200[/td][td]33[/td][td]47[/td][td]194[/td][td]138[/td][td].584[/td][td]10[/td][td]2675[/td][td]1321[/td][td]1122[/td][td]1192[/td][td]1674[/td][td]3.57[/td][td]181[/td][td]12165[/td][td][/td][td]35[/td][td]8[/td][td]59[/td][td]DET[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]8[/td][td]Roy Halladay[/td][td]2687.1[/td][td]134[/td][td]63.1[/td][td]1998[/td][td]2012[/td][td]21-35[/td][td]403[/td][td]377[/td][td]66[/td][td]20[/td][td]6[/td][td]199[/td][td]100[/td][td].666[/td][td]1[/td][td]2591[/td][td]1087[/td][td]987[/td][td]556[/td][td]2066[/td][td]3.31[/td][td]224[/td][td]11005[/td][td]27[/td][td]71[/td][td]9[/td][td]52[/td][td]TOR-PHI[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]9[/td][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]2682.1[/td][td]126[/td][td]51.1[/td][td]1999[/td][td]2012[/td][td]23-36[/td][td]406[/td][td]405[/td][td]25[/td][td]13[/td][td]0[/td][td]197[/td][td]104[/td][td].654[/td][td]0[/td][td]2504[/td][td]1111[/td][td]1019[/td][td]810[/td][td]1801[/td][td]3.42[/td][td]210[/td][td]11157[/td][td]77[/td][td]108[/td][td]6[/td][td]76[/td][td]OAK-ATL[/td][/tr]

[/table]

[waroriole]

That's interesting. Ford has an ERA+ 6 points higher than Schilling over basically the same IP, but 26 fewer WAR. I assume that is almost entirely due to K's.

I hate the idea that pitchers can't pitch to weak contact.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hate the idea that pitchers can't pitch to weak contact.

It's not that they can't pitch to weak contact, it's that among the 300-odd pitchers in the majors the ability to pitch to weak contact is not a discriminator. A great BABIP over a career might be 0.010 points ahead of a so-so one. So the ability to pitch to weak contact (above and beyond another MLB pitcher) is far less important than the ability to strike out people without walking them.

The other way to look at Schilling vs. Whitey is that Gil McDougald, Phil Rizzuto, Yogi Berra and Mickey Mantle were a heck of a lot better defensively than the guys behind Schilling. ERA+ does not discriminate between credit for a defense or credit for a pitcher. In context-adjusted FIP- Schilling is 16% better than Ford (74 to 88).

[skanar]

That's interesting. Ford has an ERA+ 6 points higher than Schilling over basically the same IP, but 26 fewer WAR. I assume that is almost entirely due to K's.

I hate the idea that pitchers can't pitch to weak contact.

This is wrong. Fangraphs' pitcher WAR is based only on BB, K, and HR, but BB-ref's WAR is not. They use the pitchers' runs allowed, then adjust for the average defense of the team that pitcher played for in that season.

I think the replacement level may be different in the two eras. ERA+ is adjusted for league average, but perhaps 60s-era replacement was higher relative to 60s-era average ERA than 90s-era replacement was relative to 90s-era average.

Still, the size of the difference is surprising to me, as well.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Edit: Just to drive the point home, Schilling has 32 more fWAR (Fangraphs) than Ford (86 to 54), an even larger difference than the one from BB-ref.

[Frobby]

This may spark an interesting conversation:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Rk[/th][th]Player[/th][th]IP[/th][th]ERA+[/th][th]WAR[/th][th]From[/th][th]To[/th][th]Age[/th][th]G[/th][th]GS[/th][th]CG[/th][th]SHO[/th][th]GF[/th][th]W[/th][th]L[/th][th]W-L%[/th][th]SV[/th][th]H[/th][th]R[/th][th]ER[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]ERA[/th][th]HR[/th][th]BF[/th][th]IBB[/th][th]HBP[/th][th]BK[/th][th]WP[/th][th]Tm[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]1[/td][td]Curt Schilling[/td][td]3261.0[/td][td]127[/td][td]76.9[/td][td]1988[/td][td]2007[/td][td]21-40[/td][td]569[/td][td]436[/td][td]83[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]216[/td][td]146[/td][td].597[/td][td]22[/td][td]2998[/td][td]1318[/td][td]1253[/td][td]711[/td][td]3116[/td][td]3.46[/td][td]347[/td][td]13284[/td][td]43[/td][td]52[/td][td]8[/td][td]72[/td][td]BAL-HOU-PHI-TOT-ARI-BOS[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]2[/td][td]Kevin Brown[/td][td]3256.1[/td][td]127[/td][td]64.5[/td][td]1986[/td][td]2005[/td][td]21-40[/td][td]486[/td][td]476[/td][td]72[/td][td]17[/td][td]1[/td][td]211[/td][td]144[/td][td].594[/td][td]0[/td][td]3079[/td][td]1357[/td][td]1185[/td][td]901[/td][td]2397[/td][td]3.28[/td][td]208[/td][td]13542[/td][td]42[/td][td]139[/td][td]15[/td][td]108[/td][td]TEX-BAL-FLA-SDP-LAD-NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]3[/td][td]Mordecai Brown[/td][td]3172.1[/td][td]139[/td][td]51.7[/td][td]1903[/td][td]1916[/td][td]26-39[/td][td]481[/td][td]332[/td][td]271[/td][td]55[/td][td]138[/td][td]239[/td][td]130[/td][td].648[/td][td]49[/td][td]2708[/td][td]1044[/td][td]725[/td][td]673[/td][td]1375[/td][td]2.06[/td][td]43[/td][td]12422[/td][td][/td][td]61[/td][td]4[/td][td]61[/td][td]STL-CHC-CIN-TOT-CHI[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]4[/td][td]Whitey Ford[/td][td]3170.1[/td][td]133[/td][td]50.6[/td][td]1950[/td][td]1967[/td][td]21-38[/td][td]498[/td][td]438[/td][td]156[/td][td]45[/td][td]35[/td][td]236[/td][td]106[/td][td].690[/td][td]10[/td][td]2766[/td][td]1107[/td][td]967[/td][td]1086[/td][td]1956[/td][td]2.75[/td][td]228[/td][td]13036[/td][td]44[/td][td]28[/td][td]5[/td][td]75[/td][td]NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]5[/td][td]Stan Coveleski[/td][td]3082.0[/td][td]127[/td][td]60.7[/td][td]1912[/td][td]1928[/td][td]22-38[/td][td]450[/td][td]385[/td][td]224[/td][td]38[/td][td]52[/td][td]215[/td][td]142[/td][td].602[/td][td]21[/td][td]3055[/td][td]1227[/td][td]990[/td][td]802[/td][td]981[/td][td]2.89[/td][td]66[/td][td]12729[/td][td][/td][td]30[/td][td]1[/td][td]35[/td][td]PHA-CLE-WSH-NYY[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]6[/td][td]Hal Newhouser[/td][td]2993.0[/td][td]130[/td][td]55.8[/td][td]1939[/td][td]1955[/td][td]18-34[/td][td]488[/td][td]374[/td][td]212[/td][td]33[/td][td]79[/td][td]207[/td][td]150[/td][td].580[/td][td]26[/td][td]2674[/td][td]1197[/td][td]1016[/td][td]1249[/td][td]1796[/td][td]3.06[/td][td]136[/td][td]12648[/td][td]1[/td][td]19[/td][td]7[/td][td]65[/td][td]DET-CLE[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]7[/td][td]Tommy Bridges[/td][td]2826.1[/td][td]126[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]1930[/td][td]1946[/td][td]23-39[/td][td]424[/td][td]362[/td][td]200[/td][td]33[/td][td]47[/td][td]194[/td][td]138[/td][td].584[/td][td]10[/td][td]2675[/td][td]1321[/td][td]1122[/td][td]1192[/td][td]1674[/td][td]3.57[/td][td]181[/td][td]12165[/td][td][/td][td]35[/td][td]8[/td][td]59[/td][td]DET[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]8[/td][td]Roy Halladay[/td][td]2687.1[/td][td]134[/td][td]63.1[/td][td]1998[/td][td]2012[/td][td]21-35[/td][td]403[/td][td]377[/td][td]66[/td][td]20[/td][td]6[/td][td]199[/td][td]100[/td][td].666[/td][td]1[/td][td]2591[/td][td]1087[/td][td]987[/td][td]556[/td][td]2066[/td][td]3.31[/td][td]224[/td][td]11005[/td][td]27[/td][td]71[/td][td]9[/td][td]52[/td][td]TOR-PHI[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]9[/td][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]2682.1[/td][td]126[/td][td]51.1[/td][td]1999[/td][td]2012[/td][td]23-36[/td][td]406[/td][td]405[/td][td]25[/td][td]13[/td][td]0[/td][td]197[/td][td]104[/td][td].654[/td][td]0[/td][td]2504[/td][td]1111[/td][td]1019[/td][td]810[/td][td]1801[/td][td]3.42[/td][td]210[/td][td]11157[/td][td]77[/td][td]108[/td][td]6[/td][td]76[/td][td]OAK-ATL[/td][/tr]

[/table]

How did you pick this particular group of pitchers? Amazing how close Brown and Schilling are in innings, ERA+ and winning percentage, and yet Schilling's WAR is much higher. I assume this is because Brown supposedly had better defenses behind him. It's interesting also because Schilling has a decent shot at the Hall of Fame, whereas Brown is a longshot in my opinion, yet their key stats are close. Goes to show what a bloody sock can do for you.

[skanar]

How did you pick this particular group of pitchers? Amazing how close Brown and Schilling are in innings, ERA+ and winning percentage, and yet Schilling's WAR is much higher. I assume this is because Brown supposedly had better defenses behind him. It's interesting also because Schilling has a decent shot at the Hall of Fame, whereas Brown is a longshot in my opinion, yet their key stats are close. Goes to show what a bloody sock can do for you.

Kevin Brown is quite unlikely to make the Hall, but there are a number of sabermetric types who have suggested in a quiet way that he deserves consideration. IMO, he's much more worthy of it than Jack Morris.

Oddly, the O's signed him to a 1 year deal in '95. It worked out, he pitched well, but it would have been great to have him on the playoff teams in '96 and '97 - he had a 1.89 ERA in '96! A 4 year deal would have been great. One of the few times in recent O's history we can go back and wish we'd committed more time/money to a player.

[Moose Milligan]

This. This, this, this. THIS times a billion: http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2013/03/you-made-me-do-it.html