Disappointed in attendance?

[TonySoprano]

They didn't have another team 40 miles away then.

Attendance in 2004 was 2.744M, down almost 1M fans from 1997, and this was with no team 40 miles away. Baltimore proved in 2012 that it is very capable of filling up its ballpark if the fans see a winning team.

[scOtt]

I had a discussion on Twitter last night about attendance with Dan Connolly (and others who chimed in), who called our attendance last night (26kish) vs the team in front of us "embarrassing" when compared to that of the Phillies-Rockies game in Philly, which drew 34k. It's unlike Dan to throw out barbs like that, and really unlike him fail to point out that overall, our attendance is up by 15%. I said you really can't compare us to the Phillies' situation at all, given the fact that the Philadelphia metro area is about 3 times the size of Baltimore's, and that it took years of winning, including two World Series appearances and one win, to build that kind of attendance there. It will take more than a couple of years of bad baseball to completely deteriorate their number of season ticket holders, much like it did here. For many years, the Phillies' season would sell out before Opening Day. Dan said he gets that, but that it's not a lot to expect 30K for games against a rival. I said a 15% overall jump is pretty good, and I'm not sure you can reasonably expect more than that year over year. If that was a weekend series, I think we're looking at 35K per game easily.

Anyway, I was disappointed that Dan went there, because I ordinarily really like his coverage. I'll chalk it up to a momentary lapse in judgement.

I can't NOT...

[video=youtube;f1GJF9ocdj4]

[barnanimal]

28,323 last night

[DrungoHazewood]

They didn't have another team 40 miles away then.

Attendance in 2004 was 2.744M, down almost 1M fans from 1997, and this was with no team 40 miles away. Baltimore proved in 2012 that it is very capable of filling up its ballpark if the fans see a winning team.

The 1990s were as much about the OPACY honeymoon as winning. The stadium was a phenomenon, really the first of its kind after generations of teams playing bad multi-purpose stadiums. People packed the place even when the O's were having down years.

By 2000 or so that had started wear off, and will never come back. To me it's obvious that there's a combination of factors. The losing was the biggest, but the end of the OPACY honeymoon was also big, and the Nats sucked away a substantial number of season tickets paid for by Washington money. The O's will really have to go on a sustained winning streak to even approach the attendance of the 1990s.

[hallmt18]

They didn't have another team 40 miles away then.

Not to mention a 5-year-old ballpark that was still a very popular destination in and of itself (not just for baseball people).

[TonySoprano]

The 1990s were as much about the OPACY honeymoon as winning. The stadium was a phenomenon, really the first of its kind after generations of teams playing bad multi-purpose stadiums. People packed the place even when the O's were having down years.

By 2000 or so that had started wear off, and will never come back. To me it's obvious that there's a combination of factors. The losing was the biggest, but the end of the OPACY honeymoon was also big, and the Nats sucked away a substantial number of season tickets paid for by Washington money. The O's will really have to go on a sustained winning streak to even approach the attendance of the 1990s.

As I've noted before, the Orioles had a much larger drop in attendance in the first post_Cal Ripken season (2002, - 412,402) then they had in the first year of the Nationals (2005, -119,278). We all agree that the losing streak was the largest culprit, with the Nats, Ravens, and Cal Ripken as other factors.

Not everyone can afford both an Orioles and Ravens season ticket package, and the sustained success of the latter has had an effect on Orioles sales. I think the Orioles recognized this, and it's only the past couple years where the Orioles decided to embrace the Ravens success.

Now, as to the losing streak. Here are the days when we lost game #82 clinching a losing record, and also the last days the team was at .500 for the year. In 10 of the last 12 years of the streak, a losing season was clinched with half of a month or more to go in the season (in 2010 and 2011 it was before Labor Day Monday). Only three times in those fourteen years the team was .500 or above after Memorial Day.

YR	82L	0.5001998	Sep-25	Sep-211999	Oct-01	Apr-072000	Sep-16	May-092001	Sep-03	May-272002	Sep-14	Aug-232003	Sep-15	May-182004	Oct-01	Jun-012005	Sep-22	Aug-172006	Sep-12	May-022007	Sep-11	May-312008	Sep-13	Jul-092009	Sep-08	Apr-232010	Aug-24	N/A2011	Sep-03	May-26

September means the kids are back in school, and the Ravens season has started. Those are two convenient excuses to forget about the Orioles in past years. In September 2011, there were 11 home games with an average of 21,960. Contrast that to 2012, when the team had 14 home games (including a doubleheader) averaging 32,673 per (14) game or 35,186 per (13) gate. Even using the lower number, that still represents an increase of 48.7% per game over 2011. Six games in September 2012 alone drew over 40,000

Let's not make excuses for a team 40 miles away. Baltimore can fill the ballpark if they are given a winning team.

[Redskins Rick]

I hate to be a dead horse, but, dangnabit.

The economy compared to 96-97 SUCKS, it has rebounded a bit since 2008, but clearly, its not to where it was.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's not make excuses for a team 40 miles away. Baltimore can fill the ballpark if they are given a winning team.

I think that's true, but let's also not pretend that having a MLB team blocks away from K street didn't have a significant impact on the O's season ticket base and cashflow.

[TonySoprano]

I think that's true, but let's also not pretend that having a MLB team blocks away from K street didn't have a significant impact on the O's season ticket base and cashflow.

I don't think it is the most significant, and it is also something that can be overcome. If I were to rank the reasons, the losing streak and the economy far outweigh "K street," particularly the former, and the "thrill is gone" novelty factor is in the mix as well.

They still do dumb things today that deter attendance, one example being the premium games. For those fans who can not afford to buy a season ticket package, the markup on the premium games is significant. Tickets are still cheaper than in Boston or New York, so the out-of-town fans aren't put off by the "premium" prices. But hey, for Pete's sake, who cares about that ? Several years ago, Angelos noted the visitors were "not a bunch of rowdies... a compliment to the game of baseball."

[Frobby]

As I've noted before, the Orioles had a much larger drop in attendance in the first post_Cal Ripken season (2002, - 412,402) then they had in the first year of the Nationals (2005, -119,278). We all agree that the losing streak was the largest culprit, with the Nats, Ravens, and Cal Ripken as other factors. September means the kids are back in school, and the Ravens season has started. Those are two convenient excuses to forget about the Orioles in past years. In September 2011, there were 11 home games with an average of 21,960. Contrast that to 2012, when the team had 14 home games (including a doubleheader) averaging 32,673 per (14) game or 35,186 per (13) gate. Even using the lower number, that still represents an increase of 48.7% per game over 2011. Six games in September 2012 alone drew over 40,000.

* * *

Let's not make excuses for a team 40 miles away. Baltimore can fill the ballpark if they are given a winning team.

Among the "other factors" was Raffygate. Attendance dropped 471,000 from 2005 to 2006, the single biggest attendance drop the Orioles have ever had from one full season to the next. I think the fact that several players were enmeshed in that, plus the way the team got the fans excited the first few months of the year and then fell off the face of the earth, really alienated a lot of fans.

I don't agree that the presence of the Nats is an "excuse." It's a reason that the O's attendance isn't already back to pre-2006 levels now that the team has been competitive for two straight years. But it's plainly not the only reason, because the Nats were in DC in 2005 and the O's drew 2.62 mm, which is 100-200,000 more than they'll draw this year.

As I've said before, I don't think the Ravens have much to do with this at all. They've been in Baltimore since the mid-1990's, and have been filling their stadium the entire time, so to the extent a fan can't afford both and has to choose, the same number of people had that problem 10+ years ago as have that problem now.

[TonySoprano]

I don't view attendance as a zero-sum game, i.e. the Nationals gain means a similar loss for the Orioles. Both parks drew 4.5M people last season. In my opinion, the reason the Orioles aren't selling out every night is it will take a lot more than two years to rebuild a fan base that was alienated long before the Nationals arrived. As I've said before, the team forty miles away in SE D.C. wouldn't be the first thing I'd identify.

Baltimore's problem is not unique. The Red Sox attendance is still down 9.2% this year because of the train wreck that was 2012. New York spent over $1B on a new ballpark and, in only its fifth season, attendance is down 14% from their peak year in 2010. MLB didn't drop a new team in either of their laps and they're showing noticeable decreases.

[Frobby]

I don't view attendance as a zero-sum game, i.e. the Nationals gain means a similar loss for the Orioles. Both parks drew 4.5M people last season. In my opinion, the reason the Orioles aren't selling out every night is it will take a lot more than two years to rebuild a fan base that was alienated long before the Nationals arrived. As I've said before, the team forty miles away in SE D.C. wouldn't be the first thing I'd identify.

Baltimore's problem is not unique. The Red Sox attendance is still down 9.2% this year because of the train wreck that was 2012. New York spent over $1B on a new ballpark and, in only its fifth season, attendance is down 14% from their peak year in 2010. MLB didn't drop a new team in either of their laps and they're showing noticeable decreases.

I agree with everything you say in this post. It's a proven fact that the O's and Nats can have either big increases or decreases in the same season so it's clearly not a zero sum game. The main thing is you dont make up for 14 years of losing in two seasons.

[Slappy]

As I've noted before, the Orioles had a much larger drop in attendance in the first post_Cal Ripken season (2002, - 412,402) then they had in the first year of the Nationals (2005, -119,278). We all agree that the losing streak was the largest culprit, with the Nats, Ravens, and Cal Ripken as other factors.

Not everyone can afford both an Orioles and Ravens season ticket package, and the sustained success of the latter has had an effect on Orioles sales. I think the Orioles recognized this, and it's only the past couple years where the Orioles decided to embrace the Ravens success.

Now, as to the losing streak. Here are the days when we lost game #82 clinching a losing record, and also the last days the team was at .500 for the year. In 10 of the last 12 years of the streak, a losing season was clinched with half of a month or more to go in the season (in 2010 and 2011 it was before Labor Day Monday). Only three times in those fourteen years the team was .500 or above after Memorial Day.

YR	82L	0.5001998	Sep-25	Sep-211999	Oct-01	Apr-072000	Sep-16	May-092001	Sep-03	May-272002	Sep-14	Aug-232003	Sep-15	May-182004	Oct-01	Jun-012005	Sep-22	Aug-172006	Sep-12	May-022007	Sep-11	May-312008	Sep-13	Jul-092009	Sep-08	Apr-232010	Aug-24	N/A2011	Sep-03	May-26

September means the kids are back in school, and the Ravens season has started. Those are two convenient excuses to forget about the Orioles in past years. In September 2011, there were 11 home games with an average of 21,960. Contrast that to 2012, when the team had 14 home games (including a doubleheader) averaging 32,673 per (14) game or 35,186 per (13) gate. Even using the lower number, that still represents an increase of 48.7% per game over 2011. Six games in September 2012 alone drew over 40,000

Let's not make excuses for a team 40 miles away. Baltimore can fill the ballpark if they are given a winning team.

Yes, but not every night. That's the main point.

[TonySoprano]

Yes, but not every night. That's the main point.

How many teams sell out every game? The team that comes the closest this year is the Giants. Only four teams draw 90% or more of their capacity, and Washington is 10th at 80.2%. Two possibly playoff bound teams, Oakland and Atlanta, draw a similar percentage to the Orioles. If the main point is Baltimore should be selling out nearly every night this year, in only its second winning season in a row, then that is a highly unrealistic expectation for all the reasons noted in several posts above.

[Frobby]

The Orioles have drawn 70,000+ in the first two games of the Oakland series and are now more than 311,000 ahead of 2012 through an equal number of home dates. The Lead over 2012 will shrink significantly in the next four games , which last year were a four game series with the Yankees that drew over 172,000 fans. We probably won't get back to +311,000 or more until the final two games of the year (barring rainouts, we have two more dates at the end of the season than we had last year).