TT: Buck needs to make a decision on Brian Roberts

[waroriole]

That would be why I said not a lot of data.

I find eyes + limited info > eyes.

When you're using a formula to determine who is a better player (when they have complete opposite skill sets), and the answer is going to show minimal difference, I think people are going to see what they want to see.....on both sides of the issue.

[Old#5fan]

The problem I have is we pretty much know what we get with Roberts. He is a known quantity. Flaherty on the other hand is Jekyl-Hyde. Which is the real RF? The one who couldn't hit his weight and was demoted to the minors early on this season or the one who suddenly got hot after rejoining the club?

Plus, nobody has mentioned this, but isn't Roberts the longest tenured Oriole? Doesn't anyone think that counts for anything? Tony said would we sign him as a free agent based on his numbers, and of course the answer is no, but shouldn't we give a guy with his long time sucess with the Orioles during the lean times a chance to share in a playoff run at the end of his career?

[Tony-OH]

You offer a hypothetical in response to a reality? And i really don't think its all that complicated. The facts are, Roberts was already a member of the team, he had a track record of being a very good player, and its clear that at this point, Showalter believes he can and will get better and help the team.

I'm not among the "trust Buck" group. Like you I think some of his decisions have sucked. And if I was the manager, Flaherty would have stayed at 2B after Roberts came back....or at least until he stopped hitting again.

Then why in God's name are you arguing with me about this situation?

I agree that Showalter apparently thinks Roberts is his best option, but I think that has way more to do with who Brian Roberts is then whether Buck truly think he's the best second baseman this team has on a daily basis. Maybe I'm wrong and Buck is just ignoring all the evidence, afterall, this is a guy who leaves Chen in to face the tying run in the 8th inning at 106+ pitches with a rested bullpen multiple times, so that is honestly believable.

[Can_of_corn]

When you're using a formula to determine who is a better player (when they have complete opposite skill sets), and the answer is going to show minimal difference, I think people are going to see what they want to see.....on both sides of the issue.

BB Ref has Casilla up by 1.3 WAR, pretty substantial amount considering the amount of playing time both have accrued. (Fangraphs has them .7 apart)

[TradeAngelos]

I'm just sitting back with my feet kicked up reading all Tony's posts as the Brian Roberts fans grasp for straws, knowing full well they have nothing to argue with.

[Can_of_corn]

Then why in God's name are you arguing with me about this situation?

I agree that Showalter apparently thinks Roberts is his best option, but I think that has way more to do with who Brian Roberts is then whether Buck truly think he's the best second baseman this team has on a daily basis. Maybe I'm wrong and Buck is just ignoring all the evidence, afterall, this is a guy who leaves Chen in to face the tying run in the 8th inning at 106+ pitches with a rested bullpen multiple times, so that is honestly believable.

And batted Hardy #2 for a full season.

[Tony-OH]

Your stats on Flaherty being good since May 9th were wrong and misleading. It's been shown. Your claim that Roberts is a .575-.600 OPS hitter when he's currently at .640 is kind of humurous. But it's you with your wrong facts telling other people to just "move on" or "you are thinking with your hearts instead of your brains". I agree with you on some level about Flaherty but your arguments in this thread have been overly aggressive and sometimes just plain wrong.

The stats are not misleading because they show what he's done over that time. He may not have been setting the world on fire before his hot streak, but he was battling and getting better which was highlighted by his hot streaks. I honestly don't think Flaherty is really all that great overall, but I think he's a much better defensive player and gives much more opportunity to an upside offensively than Roberts does. Plus, I think Roberts could have some value as a pinch hitter.

Besides that, please show me where I told someone to "move on." I don't remember saying that at all. The reason why I think Roberts is a .575-.600 guy is because that's the OPS he's put up since 2011. Does he look better than the guy we saw last year, certainly, but he's not a .700 OPS guy. How about I go with .600-.650 OPS guy. Does that make you feel better? I'd be willing to bet when it's all said and done that his OPS will fall in this range. When added to his sub par range, that is not the guy I want out there everyday.

[Tony-OH]

BB Ref has Casilla up by 1.3 WAR, pretty substantial amount considering the amount of playing time both have accrued. (Fangraphs has them .7 apart)

Yep, this discussion should certainly be Casilla/Flaherty vs Roberts because to me, that platoon was working out pretty well.

[waroriole]

The fact that people are getting neg repped in this discussion is not good. Roberts is a divisive guy on here, we all recognize that. So let's have a heated discussion without neg repping. That's ridiculous.

He really is. I don't get it, but there are a lot of people who just really don't like him. This was the case before he got injured too.

[webbrick2010]

Really, neg-rep Tony?

Brian Roberts is having good at-bats, seeing a decent amount of pitches and has a seemingly unsustainably low BABIP. To say that someone is who they are and capping there potential at below their current statistics is silly.

Nobody thinks Brian Roberts is worth $10,000,000 a year but it is not a foregone conclusion that he is a worse option than Flaherty or Casilla.

He will sustain it. It is a product of a washed up player with diminished bat speed that is hitting alot of lazy fly balls that used to be line drives in the gaps

Stick a fork in BRob he is way past done

[Can_of_corn]

He really is. I don't get it, but there are a lot of people who just really don't like him. This was the case before he got injured too.

There are people who don't think he gives the team the best chance to win.

[Tony-OH]

The fact that people are getting neg repped in this discussion is not good. Roberts is a divisive guy on here, we all recognize that. So let's have a heated discussion without neg repping. That's ridiculous.

How do you know people are getting neg repped? Did you? I only hit one poster and that was the one who made a comment about me using my brain when I think the amount of analysis that I've put into this thread didn't deserve that snide comment. I'm fine with everyone else's comments in here even if I disagree with some of them.

[MurphDogg]

I can be a lot more condescending but I don't know how that comment is condescending at all. Lots of fans think with their hearts.

It is base level argumentum ad hominem, which makes it condescending. Use facts to counter your opponents arguments, don't make assumptions as to how they arrived at them. Hence my response, which you neg-repped as "jerkish". Getting upset with me for pointing out flaws in your logic while making a nod to your tactics accusing other people of failing to use their brains is hypocritical.

[weams]

The problem I have is we pretty much know what we get with Roberts. He is a known quantity. Flaherty on the other hand is Jekyl-Hyde. Which is the real RF? The one who couldn't hit his weight and was demoted to the minors early on this season or the one who suddenly got hot after rejoining the club?

Plus, nobody has mentioned this, but isn't Roberts the longest tenured Oriole? Doesn't anyone think that counts for anything? Tony said would we sign him as a free agent based on his numbers, and of course the answer is no, but shouldn't we give a guy with his long time sucess with the Orioles during the lean times a chance to share in a playoff run at the end of his career?

I used to be sentimental. The post season again last year cured me of that.

[Tony-OH]

So your putting all of Flaherty's wait in his last 10 games in June, and ignoring his overall stats, but you are ignoring what Roberts has done over the last month (.640 OPS) and using his overall numbers during an injury plagued 2011-current? Is that consistent?

Ok, I said that.

By the way, if you want to cut up some numbers, Brian Roberts hit .343/.385/.457/.842 over an 11 games stretch. Outside of that he hit .222/.256/.333/.590 the 11 games before that and .077/.077/.077/.154 in the four games since. So honestly, Brian Roberts has had one good week and a half in the last three years!