Jump to content

MLBTRADERUMORS Oriole Arbitration Notes


Redskins Rick

Recommended Posts

Does that $92m assume McLouth and Feldman re-sign? Why is another poster getting $86m?

My $92M does not assume McLouth or Feldman. It does however assume Reimolds, D.Johnson, Dickerson and Pearce (all of which possible non-tender candidates).

The salary figures for the already under contract players I used was based on Cot's as posted on Baseball Prospective. For the players not under contract nor arbitration eligible, I used $600K which is likely slightly high as I would prefer to assume the Orioles have less to spend and thus be pleasantly surprised when/if they exceed my expectations.

Perhaps those two things account for the difference?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 65
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Not that anyone will be happy with it, but I smell a 3/21 deal before the season starts.

That's light.

I think it would cost more then that, he made 6.5 this year. 3/25 might get it done.

(This is assuming JJ's motivation is monetary in nature and he doesn't want to sign a team friendly deal)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

J.J. Hardy made 5.85M before the 2011 season, had a career year, and signed a 3/21 contact. You could call that team friendly. We don't know what he would have gotten on the open market. Johnson wants to stay. The O's want him to stay but at the right price. 3/21 is a fair deal for Johnson and gives him security heading into a FA year. That's my guess. I don't see the O's going higher than that. I hope not.

Hardy did sign a team friendly deal. He was tired of being jerked around like he was with the Brewers and Twins and wanted to stay in Baltimore long term. He even had a gentleman's agreement with AM to not trade him before his limited no trade clause went into effect.

Johnson made 6.5 last year and put up another 50 save season. I don't see him accepting 7 million annually.

He doesn't need security, he can afford to gamble on free agency if the O's want to lowball him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2014 O?s Estimated Salary Projections

Existing contracts and MLBTR Arbitration Projections

1) 15m Markakis ?RF

2) 13m Jones ? CF

3) 10.8m J Johnson Closer/RP1

4) 10m Davis ? 1B

5) 7.9m Wieters ? C

6) SP1

7) 7.5m Hardy - SS

8) LF

9) 5m Norris ? SP2

10) 4.072m Chen ? SP3

11) 3.2m O'Day ? RP2

12) 3.1m Hunter ? RP3

13) OF

14) 2.1m Matusz ? RP4

15) 1.2m Patton ? RP5

16) 1.1m Pearce ? DH/RH RF

17) SHARE 2B

18) .52m Tillman ? SP4

19) .52m Valencia ? RH DH

20) .51m Gonzalez ? SP5

21) .5m Machado ? 3B

22) .5m Flaherty ? SHARE 2B

23) .5m Clevenger/Snyder/Teagarden ? BU C

24) .5m Stinson ? RP6

25) .5m S Johnson or McFarland? RP7

SubTotal 86.822m

FA signing

7.5m Feldman

5m McLouth

1m Roberts

SubTotal 100.322m

Possible FA

3m Rajai Davis

Total 103.322

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm glad that you know him so well. He's had arm problems in the past. 3/21 is security for any relief pitcher. I'm not saying he will sign it but I could certainly see it. You suggest an 8/25 contact and say 7/21 is lowballing him. You're talking 1.33M per year. We'll see. How was Hardy jerked around by Milwaukee?

After this season's contract he will have enough in the bank that I feel he can afford to take some risks rather then settling. You are the one that knows him so well that he will agree to a below market deal.

As for Hardy, the Brewers sent him down to the minors when he had some injury related struggles, setting his service clock back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just suggested that Johnson will/could sign for 3/21. I don't see the O's going higher than that but I could be wrong. I don't know anything about Johnson's bank accounts or how bad he wants to stay in Baltimore or how much he might want to get the best contract possible. I also don't know J.J. Hardy and how poorly he felt about getting jerked around by anyone. He signed a team friendly deal at the time coming off of a career season in his FA year. We can assume we know what his reasons were but he did it just the same. I would not be surprised to see Johnson do the same whether it be for slightly different reasons. Of course, Hardy signed his knowing he'd be a FA in a matter of months. Johnson has to wait a whole year before he becomes one, so he has more risk than Hardy did at the time.

Hardy had an injury plagued career. Hardy had just been traded for two fringe relievers who never made the majors in any significant way. Jim Johnson just saved 100 games. And has been relatively healthy as a major leaguer.

Nothing about emotion, feelings, or personal information there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess you're trying to make a point. Not sure what it is exactly. Are you saying Hardy had less value on the open market coming off of that year? What does the fact that two non descript relievers were traded for him, have to do with anything? He would have had an opportunity to do better than 3/21 on the open market. He gave up that opportunity because he was happy in Baltimore and signed for a reasonable contract. What do you think Jim Johnson would get on the open market if he were a FA this year? If he has another year like 2013 in 2014, what do you think he'll get?

I find it hard to imagine JJ would get much more then 3/21 from any other team. I just don't see it. He is a closer coming off a bad year that does not K a lot of hitters. Good piece, but I don't think he is an elite closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a good pitcher. But his price now exceeds his value. Time to move on.

FA RPs who are about as good as Jim Johnson and probably less expensive:

Joaquin Benoit

Casey Janssen

Matt Belisle

Edward Mujica

My arbitration moves:

1. Tender Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, and Matusz

2. Trade Jim Johnson or non-tender if no one is biting

3. Non-tender and offer spring invites to Pearce, Johnson, and Dickerson

4. Minor league deal for Reimold.

5. Dump Patton. Or trade him if someone wants him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wildcard,

I doubt Robets would sign for 1M. I'm guessing 3M for him to come back as a starter. No sense signing him at all if he isn't pegged to start or at least platoon. 1M is kind of an insult, IMO. I doubt the O's go as high as 5M for Mclouth as well. And Feldman could be had at 7.5M but it's doubtful he's available on just a one year contract which makes it very iffy that the O's sign him at all.

I think everything you said here is possible. There are a lot of moving parts right now. I think DD and Buck will have a talk with Roberts and tell him he would not come back as the starting 2B. He would share the position with Flaherty. Performance will determine who gets more playing time. The O's are open with Roberts that Schoop is in their future but he starts 2014 at AAA and has to earn his promotion. Flaherty has options and it will depend on how Flaherty and Roberts are performing at the time of Schoop's promotion as to how room is made. If Roberts do not want to return under those conditions, the O's and Roberts will part friends. Casilla and Ellis are out of the market and can replace him. I see a low salary for Roberts or whoever takes what is basically a backup position to Flaherty at 2B.

I think the O's will go 5m for McLouth. They need a leadoff hitter. I can even see them going 2/10 though they would try to go cheaper. The O's really don't have a better leadoff hitter. The O's may be watching what Tampa does with DeJesus.

The market will determine Feldman's price. I have seen 2/17. It will play out. Fact is the O's need a veteran starter whether it is Feldman, Vargas or someone else. Gausman is not ready as a major league starter to begin the season. The O's shouldn't want to make the same mistake they made last year betting on Arrieta, Matusz or Steve Johnson to step up to the starting position. It cost them dearly. They need 5 experienced starters with Gausman, McFarland, Stinson, Britton, Steve Johnson and more at AAA and in the pen in case injuries strike.

The good thing is at 103M estimated with 25M in additional team revenue from the national TV contract, they have the room to be flexible if needed.

I still think the biggest off season decisions is what to do with Davis and Wieters. The choice is to push hard and get long term contracts or take one year contracts and watch their trade value decrease as the move toward one year left of O's control and Boras advising his clients to not sign long term the closer they get to FA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing with Roberts coming back is which Roberts are we getting from last year. The guy that was going balls to the wall in the first TB series and then the last month of the season. Or the guy that seemed like he was just playing not to get hurt once he came back from injury. I'm not faulting him for that. But if he can come back and actually be a threat on the bases and except that he can only play 4-5 times a week then I'm all for bringing him back on a 1 year deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Thanks for the detailed explanation of all of the issues.  Sounds like a mess.
    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...