MLBTRADERUMORS Oriole Arbitration Notes

[wildcard]

The thing with Roberts coming back is which Roberts are we getting from last year. The guy that was going balls to the wall in the first TB series and then the last month of the season. Or the guy that seemed like he was just playing not to get hurt once he came back from injury. I'm not faulting him for that. But if he can come back and actually be a threat on the bases and except that he can only play 4-5 times a week then I'm all for bringing him back on a 1 year deal.

The Roberts that made his living with speed is gone. The Roberts that is left uses his head.

[24fps]

The Roberts that made his living with speed is gone. The Roberts that is left uses his head.

Unintentional?

[weams]

I guess you're trying to make a point. Not sure what it is exactly. Are you saying Hardy had less value on the open market coming off of that year? What does the fact that two non descript relievers were traded for him, have to do with anything? He would have had an opportunity to do better than 3/21 on the open market. He gave up that opportunity because he was happy in Baltimore and signed for a reasonable contract. What do you think Jim Johnson would get on the open market if he were a FA this year? If he has another year like 2013 in 2014, what do you think he'll get?

The point I was trying to make was that Hardy had a team friendly contract because he was not a top asset previous to us obtaining him. And the security of that friendly deal was of value to him.

[weams]

What do you think Jim Johnson would get on the open market if he were a FA this year? If he has another year like 2013 in 2014, what do you think he'll get?

If Johnson saves 50 more games? He will get a four year, 48 million dollar contract. From a non sabr team.

[Il BuonO]

The point I was trying to make was that Hardy had a team friendly contract because he was not a top asset previous to us obtaining him. And the security of that friendly deal was of value to him.

Exactly right. Johnson has more leverage than did Hardy because his save totals inflate his overall value.

[Il BuonO]

The point I was trying to make was that Hardy had a team friendly contract because he was not a top asset previous to us obtaining him. And the security of that friendly deal was of value to him.

"....previous to us obtaining him." That is, prior to the deal being done.

I disagree, at least partially. Hardy was having a career year at SS and heading into FA. He had a ton of leverage if he wanted to use it. He didn't. You don't think there were teams out there that would have offered him better than 3/21 on the open market. Weems makes a point that Hardy didn't have much value when the O's picked him up. True, he was coming off of a couple of injury plagued down years.

The last statement is the only one that matters. He was traded for a couple of afterthoughts. Not one team would have given him 3/$21 before he started playing for us. Now, he could have parlayed that into FA, but he decided he liked what was going on in Baltimore and wanted to be a part of it.

The leverage didn't exist before hand.

[weams]

Exactly right. Johnson has more leverage than did Hardy because his save totals inflate his overall value.

Yes. May I hire you as an interpreter?

[weams]

I disagree, at least partially. Hardy was having a career year at SS and heading into FA. He had a ton of leverage if he wanted to use it. He didn't. You don't think there were teams out there that would have offered him better than 3/21 on the open market. Weems makes a point that Hardy didn't have much value when the O's picked him up. True, he was coming off of a couple of injury plagued down years. I'm not sure that would have hurt him that much after the year he had in 2011. Johnson still has one year remaining before FA. He can take a 1 year 8-10M contract, depending on a few factors. Or he can take a 3/21 or 3/24 and not take the risk that 1) he has a career threatening arm injury or 2) has a bad year. Factor in the fact, they he and Buck probably have a very good relationship and he's spend his whole career in Baltimore and I tend to doubt that Johnson wants to go to arbitration and then hit FA MORE than he'd like to sign a 3 year contract with the O's.

As far as Johnson getting a 4/48 contract with another big save season. Sure, that's Paplebon money but there has to be someone wanting to give him that money. There are very few teams paying big money to closers these days. Most have learned their lessons.

Tigers, Angels, Texas, Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees would all be players for him at that level coming off of 150 saves in three years.

[weams]

I disagree, at least partially. Hardy was having a career year at SS and heading into FA. He had a ton of leverage if he wanted to use it. He didn't. You don't think there were teams out there that would have offered him better than 3/21 on the open market. Weems makes a point that Hardy didn't have much value when the O's picked him up. True, he was coming off of a couple of injury plagued down years. I'm not sure that would have hurt him that much after the year he had in 2011. Johnson still has one year remaining before FA. He can take a 1 year 8-10M contract, depending on a few factors. Or he can take a 3/21 or 3/24 and not take the risk that 1) he has a career threatening arm injury or 2) has a bad year. Factor in the fact, they he and Buck probably have a very good relationship and he's spend his whole career in Baltimore and I tend to doubt that Johnson wants to go to arbitration and then hit FA MORE than he'd like to sign a 3 year contract with the O's.

As far as Johnson getting a 4/48 contract with another big save season. Sure, that's Paplebon money but there has to be someone wanting to give him that money. There are very few teams paying big money to closers these days. Most have learned their lessons.

Hardy would have been traded if he had not agreed to the extension. He was in the middle of rebuilding his career at a place where he was comfortable. It was certainly not a given that he would have two healthy years. He would have been traded if he had not agreed to that extension. I think the security was a big part of his deal. I think Johnson, maybe not so much.

[MurphDogg]

I hate the whole arbitration process.

As opposed to what, paying them the minimum? In an open market they would make muhlch more.

[NJ BIRD FAN]

As opposed to what, paying them the minimum? In an open market they would make muhlch more.

There are irresponsible owners, that pay more then they should. Why should other owners be subject to others pay scales? I think owners would be better off giving free agency a year earlier and eliminating arbitration. I knew the day it was introduced, that it would be the major culprit in rising salaries, not free agency. I have serious doubts, in fact, I'd be willing to bet that JJ would not get on the open market (per year) how much he will get in arbitration.

[Il BuonO]

There are irresponsible owners, that pay more then they should. Why should other owners be subject to others pay scales? I think owners would be better off giving free agency a year earlier and eliminating arbitration. I knew the day it was introduced, that it would be the major culprit in rising salaries, not free agency. I have serious doubts, in fact, I'd be willing to bet that JJ would not get on the open market (per year) how much he will get in arbitration.

That can be taken care of by non tendering him. I guess they thought otherwise.

[Frobby]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-baltimore-orioles.html

Excerpt:

• Jim Johnson (5.165): $10.8MM
• Chris Davis (4.061): $10MM
• Matt Wieters (4.129): $7.9MM
• Bud Norris (4.068): $5MM
• Tommy Hunter (4.066): $3.1MM
• Brian Matusz (3.156): $2.1MM
• Nolan Reimold (4.004): $1.2MM
• Troy Patton (3.150): $1.2MM
• Steve Pearce (4.116): $1.1MM
• Chris Dickerson (3.133): $700K
• Dan Johnson (3.168): Contract includes $800K club option for 2014. If declined, MLBTR's projected arbitration salary is equal to the league minimum $500K.

I would just about stake my reputation on the fact that Jim Johnson will not get $10.8 mm in arbitration or in a settlement. I don't know where MLB Trade Rumors came up with that estimate, but I'm not buying it.

[wildcard]

I would just about stake my reputation on the fact that Jim Johnson will not get $10.8 mm in arbitration or in a settlement. I don't know where MLB Trade Rumors came up with that estimate, but I'm not buying it.

Stake your reputation..............? OK, I can get in a lot of trouble here. I better stop before I start.

[weams]

I would just about stake my reputation on the fact that Jim Johnson will not get $10.8 mm in arbitration or in a settlement. I don't know where MLB Trade Rumors came up with that estimate, but I'm not buying it.

If Jim goes for 10.8, and the Orioles offer 8.7, I think Atty Smouse can handle that. If the disparity is greater than that and there is no settlement 48 hours before, Jim gets the Guthrie.