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Average payroll + below average farm system = trouble


Frobby

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Yep, I agree, and that's why I have reservations about that deal. But I'm hoping Norris shows us more in 2014.
At least Norris is a #5. Last season we didn't have one for much of it. We had a #2 in Tillman, two #3's in Gonzo and Chen, and a bunch of 6's and 7's.
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I agree with Frobby's initial post and I'd guess so do most of our more strategic thinkers.

I also basically agree with Gordo and I'm guessing that isn't a widespread belief. I think we HAVE to trade Wieters, JJ, and Davis. The rationale for the first two is fairly obvious, but my rationale for Davis is murkier.

Davis is probably going to be a good player for probably a long tie, but I don't think his true value is as high as his trade value at the moment. I believe he will settle into a 35-40 HR 1B who gets on base at a pretty good clip and he'll likely be an All Star more times than not. However, I believe he also has a chance to be a borderline starter at 1B. Right now, he could be traded for a ransom because he is such a "sexy" name. I love the guy, but I'd trade him for multiple prospects at the upper levels of the minors right now.

I personally believe we should trade these three guys, use the money we free up to prop up the ML team for a few years and take the ransom we get for these players to set ourselves up for the future. I think we'll regret it if we don't.

If you're going to go that far, why stop there? Trade Jones because his bat would otherwise be wasted in the supporting cast that would be left in the line-up.

Having said that...

Keep Davis and Jones. Hardy is in a walk year, so you're not going to get as much in return if you're looking for prospects to rebuild a farm system. Fare thee well, Matt.

Blowing up the offense, just one year removed from a playoff season, is going to be a tough PR sell.

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Trade Davis to SF for Belt and some SP prospect., Trade Wieters to ATL for Bethancourt and Wood. Trade JJ to DET for Porcello. Use the money saved to get a LF bat like Beltran/Granderson/Cruz, and a FA CL. You've added some SP to the farm system got a good young defensive C and a middle order SP. May not make the playoffs but still a competitive team.

C Bethancourt

1B Belt

2B Flaherty/Dejesus

3B Manny

SS JJ

LF Granderson/Beltran/Cruz/etc.

CF Jones

RF Nick

DH Valencia/Urrutia

SP

Tillman

Chen

Gonzo

Porcello

Norris

Bench

Clevenger

Dejesus

Urrutia/Valencia

4th OF

RP

Gausman

Stinson

Patton

Matusz

O'Day

Hunter

FA CL

If not exactly this something like it. Try to keep the ML club competitive while beefing up the Farm.

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The only year i can think of in recent times when BA ranked our farm system as above average was after the 2008 season. At that point we had Wieters (MiL POY), Matusz (who hadn't pitched yet but had been the no. 4 draft pick), Tillman, Arrieta (Carolina League pitcher of the year), Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken, Reimold, Britton and some others. All but Arrieta and Britton graduated in 2009, the 2009 draft was a bust, and we've never been considered above average since then so far as I can recall.

I do like some of the players we drafted in 2013, though I'm not that impressed with the 2012 class (only 3 of whom are in the OH top 20) and we obviously weakened our system by trading Delmonico, Hader, Hoes and our extra pick.

Wow. I went back and checked the rankings, and we have been as bad as you say:

BA ranked us:

2010: 8th (Goodness it looked so bright...read the write up)

2011: 21st

2012: 21st

2013: 28th (although this isn't the annual rankings, but a rough cut...still dysmal)

John Sickels ranked us (his are pre-season):

2010: No rankings

2011: 26th (Extrapolated from Average Monetary Value of Prospects [2])

2012: 19th

2013: 18th

Keith Law ranked us (pre-season rankings):

2010: 6th

2011: 24th

2012: 17th

2013: 13th

The only notable difference is 2013, where Law was very high on us. However his rankings are pre-season, and injuries to prospects like Schoop and Bundy clearly hurt us here.

Articles:

[1]: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/translating-farm-system-rankings-into-wins/

[2]: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/1/7/1921427/john-sickels-farm-system-rankings

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I hadn't remembered that we were so highly regarded after the 2010 season. Who'd we have in our system then besides Manny and Britton?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2010/269739.html

"Josh Bell has the power and arm strength to be a star at the hot corner"

Matusz with rookie status. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Hobgood, Erbe all highly regarded. This was at the start of the 2010 season in April.

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I can see not wanting to give up the pick.

I don't see why teams are not taking the money hit and spending every penny they can.

Many do. It depends on what there is to sign. Boston lined up around an extra $1.5 MM for kids they thought could be expensive, and a bunch of them signed at or below slot. At that point, there weren't remaining drafted players to spend the money on.

TEX and CHN both took the nuclear penalty on the international front this year -- both lose the ability to sign anyone over $350K next year, with additional limitations and taxes. They cleaned up on the top talent this year, though.

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http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2010/269739.html

"Josh Bell has the power and arm strength to be a star at the hot corner"

Matusz with rookie status. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Hobgood, Erbe all highly regarded. This was at the start of the 2010 season in April.

Thanks for the clarification on timing. This really goes to show how far off the experts can be, and how little payoff we got from Matusz, Britton and Arrieta all of whom at one time looked like they could be no. 2-3 starters at the big league level. In all three cases, I have to wonder if poor coaching and development at the big league level has gotten in their way. All three looked pretty good when they first arrived from the minors, but stagnated or regressed after their arrival.

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Many do. It depends on what there is to sign. Boston lined up around an extra $1.5 MM for kids they thought could be expensive, and a bunch of them signed at or below slot. At that point, there weren't remaining drafted players to spend the money on.

TEX and CHN both took the nuclear penalty on the international front this year -- both lose the ability to sign anyone over $350K next year, with additional limitations and taxes. They cleaned up on the top talent this year, though.

I wasn't speaking of the International market since honestly, I didn't check up on what other teams were doing beyond reading about individual signings.

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I've been posting for a long, long time about the importance of our farm system. The farm is impacted by drafting and developing. The Os have had average to below average to poor drafting for most of the last 15 years or more and we've had well-below player development during much of that time. I believe AM started to improve the development side, but it appears DD has made great strides here. Another aspect of player acquisition the Os have been awful at is international talent - this appears to be changing in a big way over the past four years.

I think we are in better shape going forward in terms of organization, scouting, development that has existed in a long, long time and DD has played a major role in that.

I do cringe when I see posters say how important the farm system is to them but that it is okay for our GM to move a top 40 draft pick as one-third of the package for a pitcher like Norris - historically a pitcher around or below ERA+ of 100. Or that it is okay to trade away or trade down international draft slots. For an organization like ours, these are assets to be cherished not traded, and if they are traded they should be part of a package for a well above average player.

The main issue I have with Frobby's posts here is that Tampa has the depth that it has replacements and can afford to move a Garza or a Shields. What is so critical about having a replacement? We should trade Shields to receive Myers 100 out of 100 times regardless of whether there is a replacement. This organization has lost for so long that I am okay with more losing as long as the pieces are being accumulated for a sustainably well above average team. We are currently far from that status, but with decent hauls for Wieters, both JJs, and Chris Davis, that we might sacrifice some of 2014 and maybe 2015 to be in exceptional shape in 2016.

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Sorry for the delay in response.

I look at Jones differently than Davis, Wieters, and Davis because they aren't in nearly the same boat contractually. Jones has a defined contract through 2018. I'd argue his contract is a very good deal for both sides as he makes 13, 13, 16, 16, and 17 million the next five years which is good value for what he is likely to provide.

I'd keep Hardy because I think he is likely to provide more value this year than his salary (7M), I think he is likely to sign a reasonable extension if we want him to stay, and he is unlikely to bring significant value in a trade.

I don't remotely consider Tillman to be in the same boat (Weam's point). He is under team control for four more seasons and will be very cheap for the next two at least. If he pitches very well this season, I'd start looking to extend him at a reasonable number to buy out a year or two of FA.

I'm not advocating trading any of those three players to save money. I'm advocating trading them because it appears that none of them will sign what I'd call a win-win contract at this point so we need to trade them before their value becomes a draft pick or less to us.

If Davis would go something like

10M, 14M, 17M, 17M, 18M, 18M for the next five/six

If Wieters would go something like

10M, 13M, 15M, 15M, 16M, 16M for the next five/six

If JJ would go something like

8M, 8M, 8M for the next three

I'd probably sign them all just like we did with Adam. The payroll could handle these guys as the foundation costs along with Adam. I don't see any of them doing that so we simply MUST do better than letting them play here 1-2 more years and then lose them for a single draft pick each.

My plan isn't to gut the team. It is to add value for our future via trade of them, sign free agents as hired guns for the next couple years with the money they would have been making, provide similar ML production in 2014 & 2015 to what they would have supplied, and come out of 2015 with a lot more than 3 draft picks for them. I think this is the obvious path forward IF they won't sign extensions. We can't let them play out the string. It just doesn't make sense to me.

I wont debate that this makes sense in a long term view. For any of this to work for me, a team that can win more games than it loses needs to be put on the field in the meantime. So a couple two year over pay free agents would need to be signed.

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Sorry for the delay in response.

I look at Jones differently than Davis, Wieters, and Davis because they aren't in nearly the same boat contractually. Jones has a defined contract through 2018. I'd argue his contract is a very good deal for both sides as he makes 13, 13, 16, 16, and 17 million the next five years which is good value for what he is likely to provide.

I'd keep Hardy because I think he is likely to provide more value this year than his salary (7M), I think he is likely to sign a reasonable extension if we want him to stay, and he is unlikely to bring significant value in a trade.

I don't remotely consider Tillman to be in the same boat (Weam's point). He is under team control for four more seasons and will be very cheap for the next two at least. If he pitches very well this season, I'd start looking to extend him at a reasonable number to buy out a year or two of FA.

I'm not advocating trading any of those three players to save money. I'm advocating trading them because it appears that none of them will sign what I'd call a win-win contract at this point so we need to trade them before their value becomes a draft pick or less to us.

If Davis would go something like

10M, 14M, 17M, 17M, 18M, 18M for the next five/six

If Wieters would go something like

10M, 13M, 15M, 15M, 16M, 16M for the next five/six

If JJ would go something like

8M, 8M, 8M for the next three

I'd probably sign them all just like we did with Adam. The payroll could handle these guys as the foundation costs along with Adam. I don't see any of them doing that so we simply MUST do better than letting them play here 1-2 more years and then lose them for a single draft pick each.

My plan isn't to gut the team. It is to add value for our future via trade of them, sign free agents as hired guns for the next couple years with the money they would have been making, provide similar ML production in 2014 & 2015 to what they would have supplied, and come out of 2015 with a lot more than 3 draft picks for them. I think this is the obvious path forward IF they won't sign extensions. We can't let them play out the string. It just doesn't make sense to me.

This.:agree:
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Sorry for the delay in response.

I look at Jones differently than Davis, Wieters, and Davis because they aren't in nearly the same boat contractually. Jones has a defined contract through 2018. I'd argue his contract is a very good deal for both sides as he makes 13, 13, 16, 16, and 17 million the next five years which is good value for what he is likely to provide.

I'd keep Hardy because I think he is likely to provide more value this year than his salary (7M), I think he is likely to sign a reasonable extension if we want him to stay, and he is unlikely to bring significant value in a trade.

I don't remotely consider Tillman to be in the same boat (Weam's point). He is under team control for four more seasons and will be very cheap for the next two at least. If he pitches very well this season, I'd start looking to extend him at a reasonable number to buy out a year or two of FA.

I'm not advocating trading any of those three players to save money. I'm advocating trading them because it appears that none of them will sign what I'd call a win-win contract at this point so we need to trade them before their value becomes a draft pick or less to us.

If Davis would go something like

10M, 14M, 17M, 17M, 18M, 18M for the next five/six

If Wieters would go something like

10M, 13M, 15M, 15M, 16M, 16M for the next five/six

If JJ would go something like

8M, 8M, 8M for the next three

I'd probably sign them all just like we did with Adam. The payroll could handle these guys as the foundation costs along with Adam. I don't see any of them doing that so we simply MUST do better than letting them play here 1-2 more years and then lose them for a single draft pick each.

My plan isn't to gut the team. It is to add value for our future via trade of them, sign free agents as hired guns for the next couple years with the money they would have been making, provide similar ML production in 2014 & 2015 to what they would have supplied, and come out of 2015 with a lot more than 3 draft picks for them. I think this is the obvious path forward IF they won't sign extensions. We can't let them play out the string. It just doesn't make sense to me.

By year 3 you have about 60 percent of our likely payroll allocated to only 4 players. I don't think I would want that. I definitely want no part of that Wieters deal. If our payroll is truly going to stay in 100 million dollar range then I don't see how we can keep them all.

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By year 3 you have about 60 percent of our likely payroll allocated to only 4 players. I don't think I would want that. I definitely want no part of that Wieters deal. If our payroll is truly going to stay in 100 million dollar range then I don't see how we can keep them all.

It really has to go up over the next five years. At least as long as the TV deal bubble continues.

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