Connolly: Orioles Focused on Adding SP, Not CL

[Hallas]

Do I think he's a 2 win player over a full season solely based on defense? No. That's crazy talk.

He's (or at least was last season) a more-or-less league average offensive player, without considering the positional adjustment. He obviously gets a pretty large ding on offense if you consider his future position with the O's (LF). but his 2013 is not being propped up entirely on his defense. I'd argue that Machado's 2013 was propped up more by defense than Lough's.

For what it's worth, Steamer thinks he's going to be terrible next year, and Oliver thinks he'll be more or less a league-average player.

[Hallas]

I think he is a good defender -- potential 60 grade. I think the valuation of defense is highly skewed due to sample size.

When you say '60' defender, do you consider position? or is that a position-agnostic rating (at least in terms of the 3 outfield positions?)

If he's a 60 defender agnostic of outfield position, and he plays LF, then he will likely save a lot more runs than average, since most plus-defenders play CF.

[Number5]

I think he is a good defender -- potential 60 grade. I think the valuation of defense is highly skewed due to sample size.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[El Gordo]

I wonder if the interest in a veteran C could be linked to a possible Wieters trade. Arb. figures due soon......:scratchchinhmm:

[Ommaculate]

They can't do much worse then Johnson did last year, while at 1/4th the cost

I think Buck overused Johnson. I don't even want to think about what problems overusing Hunter is going to cause. Get ready for whiplash.

[Larry18]

I think he is a good defender -- potential 60 grade. I think the valuation of defense is highly skewed due to sample size.

Baseball Prospectus gave him a negative FRAA. So there is some disagreement about his defense within the analytics community

[Jon]

There, I fixed the title:

Connolly: Orioles Focused on Adding Mediocre SP, Not CL

[Art Wing]

There, I fixed the title:

Connolly: Orioles Focused on Adding Mediocre SP Who Will Work for Food, Not CL

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[Ommaculate]

There, I fixed the title:

Connolly: Orioles Focused on Adding Mediocre SP, Not CL

We don't even know if Hunter can pitch multiple days in a row and they are ready to make him closer?

[Jon]

Connolly: Orioles Focused on Adding Mediocre SP Who Will Work for Food, Not CL

[video=youtube;A8MO7fkZc5o]

[Jon]

We don't even know if Hunter can pitch multiple days in a row and they are ready to make him closer?

Just a guess, but I'm thinking DD is doing a little media negotiating to get guys like Rodney to lower their asking price and/or letting them know that these FA closers need the O's more than the O's need them.

The O's seem to only sign a guy if it comes at their price and on their terms. That is, unless it's for a hometown guy.

[fansince71]

They can't do much worse then Johnson did last year, while at 1/4th the cost

Fast forward six months when our BP leads the league in blown saves and ERA then perhaps all the JJ haters will admit he was worth that ten million.

[Stotle]

He's (or at least was last season) a more-or-less league average offensive player, without considering the positional adjustment. He obviously gets a pretty large ding on offense if you consider his future position with the O's (LF). but his 2013 is not being propped up entirely on his defense. I'd argue that Machado's 2013 was propped up more by defense than Lough's.

For what it's worth, Steamer thinks he's going to be terrible next year, and Oliver thinks he'll be more or less a league-average player.

*Appeal to authority warning*

I think it says something that 1) the organization that has seen him play day in and day out did not consider him an asset of any real significance, and 2) a team that is paying a fair amount of attention to valuation of defense did not have interest in him when were essentially naming their package in the Shields deal.

*Back to more reasoned discussion*

He'll have some value on the bases. He'll play a good defensive left field. He'll probably post closer to a .260/.300/.400 triple slash with little to no power. That makes him an undesirable candidate as an everyday corner outfielder to me if I'm putting together a team I'd like to seriously compete for a pennant.

I think he's a nice 4th or 5th outfielder.

[luismatos4prez]

an undesirable candidate as an everyday corner outfielder to me if I'm putting together a team I'd like to seriously compete for a pennant.

I think he's a nice 4th or 5th outfielder.

There's a quite a bit of middle ground between those two things. I agree with the first, but disagree with the second. I group him with Nate McLouth, Michael Brantley, David Murphy, and quite a few other good players in my "fine starter" category. 1-2 WAR type players, which is exactly what I expect Lough to put up this year.

Some elite teams might have 3 better outfielders than those guys. That doesn't make them 4th/5th outfielders.

[Stotle]

There's a quite a bit of middle ground between those two things. I agree with the first, but disagree with the second. I group him with Nate McLouth, Michael Brantley, David Murphy, and quite a few other good players in my "fine starter" category. 1-2 WAR type players, which is exactly what I expect Lough to put up this year.

Some elite teams might have 3 better outfielders than those guys. That doesn't make them 4th/5th outfielders.

If you want to call him a second division starter...maybe I can co-sign. But he's not a starting LF on a playoff team.