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Chris Davis did not know the Orioles had Offered an Extension?


birdcrazy

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Red Sox will. Napoli vs Davis. No contest.

Not a chance. No one is handing out that contract to Davis.

In 2010 Bautista put up this line:

.260/.378/.617, 54 HR

and then got this deal:

5 years/$65M, plus $14MM club option

2011: $8MM

2012:$14MM

2013:$14MM

2014:$14MM

2015:$14MM

2016:$14MM club option ($1M buyout)

Most organizations thought the Jays were a little crazy to put THAT much money on the table for one elite season.

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Davis OPS last year was 1.004. I don't think he projects to do that again next year. But I think he has shown the ability to do it again something in the next 5 years. Is he a 900 OPS guy? Well, some where around there. Maybe a little higher or lower over a 8 year contract. He has now figured out how to do in the majors what he did in the minors. He seem solidly built so injuries are not a great concern. He is a good guy with good values. The kind of guy that the O's should want to build around. Most of the time there is something glaring that shows a red flag about signing a guy long term. Wieters has his offensive issues. Fielder has his weight. Cabrera is not the best defensive player. Adam has his lack of OBP. I don't see that with Davis. He is pretty darn solid now he has been giving the opportunity to show his ability.

I don't think there is any doubt that Davis has power to spare. I do think he'll hit 40 homers several times over the course of a 7-8 year contract. But I'm just not sure about his BA and OBP. His .370 OBP from last year looks good, but really it was .440 through June 2 and .333 the rest of the way. A guy with a .333 OBP and 40 HR is still a very good player, but I don't put that in the $20 mm/yr category for a 1B.

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Not a chance. No one is handing out that contract to Davis.

In 2010 Bautista put up this line:

.260/.378/.617, 54 HR

and then got this deal:

5 years/$65M, plus $14MM club option

2011: $8MM

2012:$14MM

2013:$14MM

2014:$14MM

2015:$14MM

2016:$14MM club option ($1M buyout)

Most organizations thought the Jays were a little crazy to put THAT much money on the table for one elite season.

Agreed. There has been some salary inflation since 2010 that has to be taken into account, but it still doesn't get you to $20 mm.

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Not a chance. No one is handing out that contract to Davis.

In 2010 Bautista put up this line:

.260/.378/.617, 54 HR

and then got this deal:

5 years/$65M, plus $14MM club option

2011: $8MM

2012:$14MM

2013:$14MM

2014:$14MM

2015:$14MM

2016:$14MM club option ($1M buyout)

Most organizations thought the Jays were a little crazy to put THAT much money on the table for one elite season.

Thank you for the dose of sanity.

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I agree. There is risk either way. If you sign him now you get him for less and take the risk that he's only an .800-.850 OPS guy and you are overpaying him. You wait, he OPS's .900+ again and his price goes up. . I do not believe either Davis or Wieters will be signed. One will be traded next offseason and they will let the other walk after 2015. Actually, they might let both walk as free agents and just take their best over the next 2 years. I will be pleasantly surprised if they can extend Davis. Pleasantly shocked.

Cano did it for ten years. There is no way that Davis can play himself into a Cano contract. No. Way.

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Maybe not 10 years, but if he repeats last year, I can see him getting over 20M per year.

You are so right. Exactly correct. Not this.

If you wait until he proves he could do it year after year he will get 23-25m per year. Cano just got 24m/yr.
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If you wait until he proves he could do it year after year he will get 23-25m per year. Cano just got 24m/yr.

Proves he can do what year after year? Cano has been worth 45.2 rWAR in his career, he's had six seasons of 4.5 rWAR or better, he's a five-time all star, and has finished in the top 6 in the all-star balloting four years in a row. Chris Davis has been worth 7.6 rWAR in his career, and has had exactly one season where he exceeded 1.6 rWAR. Yes, if you wait a year to sign him and he puts up another .900+ OPS season, his price tag goes up. That is always a risk you take. But if you sign him now, the deal has to reflect the risk that Davis won't be a .900+ OPS guy going forward.

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Not a chance. No one is handing out that contract to Davis.

In 2010 Bautista put up this line:

.260/.378/.617, 54 HR

and then got this deal:

5 years/$65M, plus $14MM club option

2011: $8MM

2012:$14MM

2013:$14MM

2014:$14MM

2015:$14MM

2016:$14MM club option ($1M buyout)

Most organizations thought the Jays were a little crazy to put THAT much money on the table for one elite season.

That was before the baseball teams got 750M in additional TV money. Things are changing. 240M for Cano??? 153M for Ellsbury. 130 for Choo.

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Proves he can do what year after year? Cano has been worth 45.2 rWAR in his career, he's had six seasons of 4.5 rWAR or better, he's a five-time all star, and has finished in the top 6 in the all-star balloting four years in a row. Chris Davis has been worth 7.6 rWAR in his career, and has had exactly one season where he exceeded 1.6 rWAR. Yes, if you wait a year to sign him and he puts up another .900+ OPS season, his price tag goes up. That is always a risk you take. But if you sign him now, the deal has to reflect the risk that Davis won't be a .900+ OPS guy going forward.

If the O's don't sign Davis by July ---- they don't sign him. He will be a FA and they will not get him. That is just the facts of life in Major League Baseball.

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It only takes one team to go crazy. We've seen it time and again. Jayson Werth?

Jayson Werth, at age 31, got a 7/126 contract. Someone is going to tell me there is no way Davis gets 7/140 if he has another 2 big years?

What do you consider another two big years? I think if he had two more years of .900+ OPS, he'd get a contract like that.

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It only takes one team to go crazy. We've seen it time and again. Jayson Werth?

Jayson Werth, at age 31, got a 7/126 contract. Someone is going to tell me there is no way Davis gets 7/140 if he has another 2 big years?

Well, the question was what would Davis get now...

In any event, the Nationals were attempting to change their perception in the marketplace, and everyone thought that contract was crazy. Sure, if there is another team looking to make a similar statement, or a desperate GM on the chopping block throwing a hail mary, they could roll the dice on Davis for a crazy deal. But it shouldn't be the expectation, which is what the earlier posts were indicating. Essentially, "If Davis were a free agent he would definitely get crazy money."

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What do you consider another two big years? I think if he had two more years of .900+ OPS, he'd get a contract like that.

If Davis had been a FA this off season he would have got at least 7/140. Who do you think the Rangers would rather have Choo or Davis? The Fielder trade would have never happened. Davis does not have the regression risk that Fielder has with that weight.

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