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PECOTA hates us

Frobby

By Frobby
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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Thats just it, I don't get how their projections have FOUR players tanking, seemingly, out of nowhere.

Jones is projected to hit right about at his career OPS. Hardy is just a tick off his last two seasons. Manny and Davis seem low, I would certainly hope they do better than that. I hope Manny breaks out, but he did have a disappointing 2nd half with the bat. I hope Davis holds most of his gains, but he also backslid in the 2nd half.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I wonder if Buck ever attended a BP convention? Sorry I think a Star Trek convention would be less boring.

You do realize (of course you don't, or you don't care, or you're just being obstinate) that BP ballpark events typically have guest speakers from the home team's front office like the GM or assistant GM or similar? If they have an event at OPACY it's likely that Duquette or Buck or someone else from the team shows up to talk and take questions.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Nah, he was too busy managin' ballteams and winnin'. Thinkin' and book-learnin' are sucker's games.
You really think Buck is a poor manager. You really think he doesn't understand what the BP geeks have to offer, and uses what he finds applicable? He just doesn't make it a religion because he actually plays the game and has to deal with all the messy intangibles and static of human behavior.
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SilentJames Hangout Veteran Council

SilentJames

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Jones is projected to hit right about at his career OPS. Hardy is just a tick off his last two seasons. Manny and Davis seem low, I would certainly hope they do better than that. I hope Manny breaks out, but he did have a disappointing 2nd half with the bat. I hope Davis holds most of his gains, but he also backslid in the 2nd half.

But Jones has been trending up each year. If that prediction comes true it would be his worst season since 2010. it might be his career average, but it does not take into account his current trajectory. So yes, it would be a shocking turn if he put up those numbers when compared to his last three years.

His career average in Baltimore is .788. His average over the last three years is .795

I'm not saying its impossible. I'm just explaining why I think it would be a shocking turn around given the last couple of years.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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But Jones has been trending up each year. If that prediction comes true it would be his worst season since 2010. it might be his career average, but it does not take into account his current trajectory. So yes, it would be a shocking turn if he put up those numbers when compared to his last three years.

His career average in Baltimore is .788. His average over the last three years is .795

I'm not saying its impossible. I'm just explaining why I think it would be a shocking turn around given the last couple of years.

He just went backwards from 2012 to 2013. I don't think it is in any way a preposterous projection.

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SilentJames Hangout Veteran Council

SilentJames

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He just went backwards from 2012 to 2013. I don't think it is in any way a preposterous projection.

That drop was largely due to his OBP, for that type of drop Jones would have to put up his worst offensive year in four years. Could he drop, sure. But I don't see him going back to 2010.

The difference between 2012 and 2013

H - same

2B 5 fewer in 13

3B 2 fewer in 13

HR 1 more in 13

TB 5 fewer

SO 10 more in 13

AB 5 more in 13

I just don't buy a 13 point drop off his carer average in Baltimore, nor a 20 point drop-off over the last three years.

But hey it could happen I suppose.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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That drop was largely due to his OBP, for that type of drop Jones would have to put up his worst offensive year in four years. Could he drop, sure. But I don't see him going back to 2010.

The difference between 2012 and 2013

H - same

2B 5 fewer in 13

3B 2 fewer in 13

HR 1 more in 13

TB 5 fewer

SO 10 more in 13

AB 5 more in 13

I just don't buy a 13 point drop off his carer average in Baltimore, nor a 20 point drop-off over the last three years.

But hey it could happen I suppose.

Lower BA, lower OBP, lower SLG, lower BB%, higher K%

OPS dropped from .839 to .811. wOBA from .361 to .350. wRC+ from 126 to 118.

It's not insignificant, he was a better offensive player in 2012.

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SilentJames Hangout Veteran Council

SilentJames

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Lower BA, lower OBP, lower SLG, lower BB%, higher K%

OPS dropped from .839 to .811. wOBA from .361 to .350. wRC+ from 126 to 118.

It's not insignificant, he was a better offensive player in 2012.

Yeah I got all of that. And that would explain that drop.

But for him to go back to the numbers he was putting up four years ago, in an injury year, that would be rather big.

His XBH% last year was 10%, it was 10.6% in 2012. in 2010 it was 7.9%. For Jones to go back to a stat line/ ratios that look like 2010's would be a rather shocking turn around. his HR/FB ratio would have to drop like 5%. His LD% would have to go down like 4%.

I'm not saying he won't decline, hell he could put up a .800 OPS, maybe even a .790. If he were to do that people would be chirping about his impending decline. But a .775 would be pretty much a disaster.

His drop in OPS last year is attributed to a terrible OBP. But to get to a 775 it means he is not hitting the ball like he has been for the last three years, that would be rather shocking.

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Ripken Hangout Veteran Council

Ripken

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While I'm still bullish on CD, I agree with the overall/general negative trends/projections. This team couldn't score at all in the second half and has struggled to score at all w/o the HR. If not for Davis/Machado hitting like Ruth/Gehrig in the first half this team finishes under .500 in 2013. As of now, on the verge of spring training, the team is worse. The FO isn't trying to contend and everyone knows it.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Just for S's&G's, here are the official ElGordo projections. He freely admits he is pulling them out of his butt. Let's see who is farther off at the end of the year.

Davis .801 OPS .885 OPS

Flaherty .686 .710

Weeks .687 .650

Hardy .692 .730

Machado .721 .760

Lough .668 .720

Jones .775 .800

Markakis .738 .760

Wieters .729 .750

Reimold .735 .780 if he plays at all

Urrutia .731 .760

Young .721 .770

Team OPS: .722. .749

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Just for S's&G's, here are the official ElGordo projections. He freely admits he is pulling them out of his butt. Let's see who is farther off at the end of the year.

Davis .801 OPS .885 OPS

Flaherty .686 .710

Weeks .687 .650

Hardy .692 .730

Machado .721 .760

Lough .668 .720

Jones .775 .800

Markakis .738 .760

Wieters .729 .750

Reimold .735 .780 if he plays at all

Urrutia .731 .760

Young .721 .770

Team OPS: .722. .749

Give me Pearce and Clevenger and I'll plug you in to my model.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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You really think Buck is a poor manager. You really think he doesn't understand what the BP geeks have to offer, and uses what he finds applicable? He just doesn't make it a religion because he actually plays the game and has to deal with all the messy intangibles and static of human behavior.

I can't even begin to account for all of the misunderstandings in this post.

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