PECOTA hates us

[El Gordo]

Actually these numbers are upgrade over what we had last year at C, RF, and DH. So unless Davis Jones Hardy and Manny tank like they predict we should be better with the bat next year.

Markakis .738

Wieters .729

Reimold .735

Urrutia .731

Young .721

[Three Run Homer]

PECOTA says that there is a 55% chance he exceeds his projection.

If the underlying probability distribution is symmetric, then there should be a 50% chance he exceeds his projection and a 50% chance he underperforms. So 55% doesn't seem like that high a number.

[25 Nuggets]

Your mission Chris Davis, should you choose to accept it: stay healthy this year.

[Larry18]

If the underlying probability distribution is symmetric, then there should be a 50% chance he exceeds his projection and a 50% chance he underperforms. So 55% doesn't seem like that high a number.

PECOTA doesn't work that way. If your interested in the workings of PECOTA, I'd suggest going to one of the Baseball Prospectus events. I believe they're having one in Baltimore this year.

[El Gordo]

PECOTA doesn't work that way. If your interested in the workings of PECOTA, I'd suggest going to one of the Baseball Prospectus events. I believe they're having one in Baltimore this year.

My God I don't think I can imagine anything more dismal.I'd rather attend a stamp collecting convention.

[DrungoHazewood]

In what world could you possibly project Davis at 26 homers?

Well... that is one fewer major league homer than he hit in his age 23, 24, and 25 seasons combined.

[mdbdotcom]

My God I don't think I can imagine anything more dismal.I'd rather attend a stamp collecting convention.

Hey, you can't lick a stamp collecting convention.

[isestrex]

As I said in a thread in response to another prediction site, I can understand poor records and really bad pitching projections. But I just don't get all the poor offensive projections at all. Jones hasn't had an OPS that low in 4 years. Hardy has had an OPS <.700 once in the last 4 years. Crush hitting homers in the 30's is low... hitting homers in the 20's is laughable.

It really makes me doubt the integrity of systems like these if they ignore trends and patterns and instead assign a player's "worst case scenario" in multiple circumstances. Why would I care to trust a system like that?

[DrungoHazewood]

My God I don't think I can imagine anything more dismal.I'd rather attend a stamp collecting convention.

C'mon. The offseason hasn't been so bad that it's made talking to a bunch of guys who love baseball in an Orioles setting dismal.

[El Gordo]

C'mon. The offseason hasn't been so bad that it's made talking to a bunch of guys who love baseball in an Orioles setting dismal.

I would find them at a BP convention? I'd be talking to a bunch of guys who love math and practice it on baseball....and I hate math. More like talking to a bunch of pathologist about their autopsies., .

[DrungoHazewood]

As I said in a thread in response to another prediction site, I can understand poor records and really bad pitching projections. But I just don't get all the poor offensive projections at all. Jones hasn't had an OPS that low in 4 years. Hardy has had an OPS <.700 once in the last 4 years. Crush hitting homers in the 30's is low... hitting homers in the 20's is laughable.

It really makes me doubt the integrity of systems like these if they ignore trends and patterns and instead assign a player's "worst case scenario" in multiple circumstances. Why would I care to trust a system like that?

Why would you think these are all worst-case scenarios? What do other projection systems say? Why would Davis hitting 26 homers be so outlandish? Two years ago he hit 5, the year before 1, the year before 21. From July 1st through the end of last year he hit .238 with an .867 OPS. Hitting homers in the 30s is low? I suppose... but he's hit 34 or more homers in a season exactly once in his MLB career. Look at some other folks who suddenly burst in with 50+ homer seasons: Luis Gonzalez followed his up with 28. George Foster dropped to 40, then never hit more than 30 in any other season. Cecil Fielder hit 44 the next year. Andruw Jones dropped to 41 then 26 then 3, and then never hit 20 again. David Ortiz followed up 54 with 35 then 23.

The last two years combined JJ Hardy had about a .700 OPS. He's a year older and PECOTA is projecting a .692. Why would you project anything else? Adam Jones is a 28-year-old with a .781 career OPS. Maybe .775 is a tad low, but there's no logical reason to think it's crazy low.

Maybe instead of complaining about a projection system we'd do better to continue to express our displeasure about the failure of the organization to bring in better talent.

[Larry18]

I would find them at a BP convention? I'd be talking to a bunch of guys who love math and practice it on baseball....and I hate math. More like talking to a bunch of pathologist about their autopsies., .

And yet you're commenting in a nerd thread. Maybe it wouldn't be as bad as you think.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would find them at a BP convention? I'd be talking to a bunch of guys who love math and practice it on baseball....and I hate math. More like talking to a bunch of pathologist about their autopsies., .

What are you talking about? A BP ballpark event is where you get together with a bunch of guys who live and breathe baseball and talk about the Orioles. But I guess that doesn't square with your stereotype of guys in propeller beanies sitting in their mom's basement "watching" baseball through SQL scripts and databases.

[SilentJames]

Actually these numbers are upgrade over what we had last year at C, RF, and DH. So unless Davis Jones Hardy and Manny tank like they predict we should be better with the bat next year.

Markakis .738

Wieters .729

Reimold .735

Urrutia .731

Young .721

Thats just it, I don't get how their projections have FOUR players tanking, seemingly, out of nowhere.

[El Gordo]

What are you talking about? A BP ballpark event is where you get together with a bunch of guys who live and breathe baseball and talk about the Orioles. But I guess that doesn't square with your stereotype of guys in propeller beanies sitting in their mom's basement "watching" baseball through SQL scripts and databases.

I wonder if Buck ever attended a BP convention? Sorry I think a Star Trek convention would be less boring.