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Walks Are Not as Good as Hits

gpolee

By gpolee
in Orioles Talk

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webbrick2010 Hangout Veteran Council

webbrick2010

Posted
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Over the course of the long season walks will be more valuable than singles:

1. Drives up the opponents pitch count allowing you to get to weaker members of the pitching staff who will give up a higher % of hits and walks. (The Red Sox way)

2. Players who have high walk % are less likely to suffer from deep slumps where there OBP plummets to near zero for days to weeks

3. Singles are converted to outs by good defensive teams, so a player whose OBP is driven by .avg will perform worse against great defensive teams or in pitcher friendly parks.

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TakebackOPACY All-Star

TakebackOPACY

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The Red Sox weren't first in batting average in MLB last year, but they were first in runs scored by a lot. I wonder what they were doing so well?

It's obvious. They lead the AL by a large margin in hit by pitches. And they lead the majors in both stolen base % and catcher interference calls against opponents.

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TakebackOPACY All-Star

TakebackOPACY

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On a more serious note, here's a table that shows the linear weights for each occurence each year, reproduced from this article:

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2013/08/08/fogging-the-measure-linear-weights-via-base-runs/

The first column after the year is for a single (.449 in '12). The fifth column after the year is for a walk (.316 in '12).

2012	.449	.715	.967	1.363	.316	.332	.193	.172	-.233	.161	-.067	-.228	-.103	.057	.135	-.4182011	.450	.715	.967	1.363	.316	.332	.194	.172	-.233	.159	-.069	-.228	-.104	.056	.133	-.4192010	.455	.730	.992	1.377	.316	.333	.189	.179	-.242	.163	-.070	-.233	-.106	.059	.140	-.4342009	.461	.734	.994	1.374	.324	.341	.198	.177	-.240	.172	-.074	-.246	-.110	.054	.134	-.4352008	.464	.744	1.009	1.382	.324	.341	.195	.181	-.245	.173	-.074	-.247	-.111	.057	.139	-.4432007	.471	.752	1.020	1.385	.329	.346	.199	.183	-.247	.178	-.076	-.254	-.113	.056	.139	-.4482006	.470	.746	1.009	1.379	.331	.347	.203	.180	-.243	.181	-.076	-.257	-.113	.054	.135	-.4422005	.461	.734	.992	1.373	.324	.341	.198	.177	-.239	.171	-.073	-.245	-.109	.055	.135	-.4332004	.466	.742	1.004	1.378	.327	.344	.200	.179	-.242	.179	-.075	-.254	-.111	.055	.136	-.4392003	.466	.745	1.010	1.382	.325	.342	.196	.181	-.245	.176	-.074	-.249	-.110	.058	.139	-.4422002	.462	.740	1.003	1.380	.322	.339	.193	.180	-.244	.172	-.073	-.244	-.109	.058	.139	-.440

So a walk historically has been worth slightly more than 2/3 of a single.

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