Walks Are Not as Good as Hits

[CA-ORIOLE]

OK, here's one: Who do like better, Chris Johnson or Jason Kipnis?

Johnson: .321/.358/.457

Kipnis: .284/.366/.452

wOBA says: Johnson .354, Kipnis .357. OBP rules, baby!

That's a good one.

[brianod]

Hate to get serious on an amusing thread but the truth of the matter is that hits are obviously better then walks. However, the ability to take a walk instead of swinging at a pitchers pitch (low and outside slider in the dirt Adam) dramatically effects your ability to get hits. The single most important determinant in a hitters ability to get hits is that hitters ability to get a good pitch to hit. This isn't debatable, this is fact proven by hitters averages on counts. I don't have the stats, but if you look at the average for hitters on the various counts, it is glaring.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Hate to get serious on an amusing thread but the truth of the matter is that hits are obviously better then walks. However, the ability to take a walk instead of swinging at a pitchers pitch (low and outside slider in the dirt Adam) dramatically effects your ability to get hits. The single most important determinant in a hitters ability to get hits is that hitters ability to get a good pitch to hit. This isn't debatable, this is fact proven by hitters averages on counts. I don't have the stats, but if you look at the average for hitters on the various counts, it is glaring.

We'll put you down for hits.

[Frobby]

That's a good one.

It is a good one, isn't it? And it illustrates two points: (1) OBP is a more relevant offensive number than BA, and (2) extra base hits are a lot more valuable than singles. Johnson had a slightly higher SLG, but a much lower ISO. A guy who walks a lot and has a lot of extra base hits contributes more than a guy who walks less and whose SLG is largely driven by singles.

[TakebackOPACY]

Almost every single person in SABR-nirvana overvalues OBP (disclosure; i'm a Bill James head from the 80's Abstracts).

I'm sure it's not intentional, but this is a insult. Being interested in sabermetrics is not the same thing as jumping on the obp bandwagon because Bill James thought it was undervalued in the '70's and '80's. Noone who actually has an interest in sabermetrics settles into overvaluing anything. That is, if a formula overvalues one variable, it gets challenged.

The original Bill James Runs Created stat over-valued obp and slugging %. Part of the reason for that is that it was overly simple. Part of the reason is that it was based on the limited readily accessible data of it's time. Part of the reason is that it was just flawed; but it was a start. If you're interested, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created .

NOTE: A statistic, in itself, is not flawed. It always tells us what it tells us. I say here that the most basic RC (runs created) statistics are flawed because they don't tell us what we'd like it to tell us. Oh, by the way, if you read the link and think about why RC overrates obp and slg%, you'll realize that it's likely that for some players in some contexts, the most basic RC stats underrate obp and/or slg%.

Tell me one person - besdies me - whom you would accuse of overvaluing batting average. Like voter fraud, it's statistically insignificant. But it is fraudulent to promote the idea that equal OBP with lower BA results in more runs. Please. someone tell me the percentage of RBIs resulting from wallks as opposed to RBIs resulting from hits. And tell me the percentage of Runs scored resulting from walks versus percentage of Runs scored resulting from hits. I'll guess 1% vs. 97% for both.

Less than a year ago, Bo Porter said he thinks batting average is the most overrated statistic in baseball.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2013/05/25/astros-report-porter-embracing-advanced-numbers-game/ I'd word that differently and say he thinks there are still people in baseball who use batting average to try to determine something that batting average doesn't determine.

No sabermetrician would "promote the idea that equal obp with lower ba results in more runs" overall. You certainly could possibly have one player who gets to 1st on a lot of singles and gets caught stealing a lot. And another player who walks a lot and runs the bases well. And all other things equal, player A could be off-setting the increased value of a single over a walk. But whatever.

Frobby's example is outstanding, and shows where batting average can be deceptive. In my opinion, though, the real point of that example is that you have to look deeper than the surface stat line to determine what's really going on. wOBA does a pretty good job at putting it all together. But if you just added wOBA to the statline, like Frobby does in post #106, you can't help but say, "Why is that?" So Frobby dug a little deeper to try to find an explanation, briefly given in post #110.

[Moose Milligan]

I agree with the OP, I hate it when our guys get on base.

[OrangeJerseys]

More walks please.

[weams]

OK, here's one: Who do like better, Chris Johnson or Jason Kipnis?

Johnson: .321/.358/.457

Kipnis: .284/.366/.452

wOBA says: Johnson .354, Kipnis .357. OBP rules, baby!

And second is more valuable than third as well. Me, I'll take either of them.

[fearthenoodle]

I don't think anyone has ever argued that a walk is better than a hit. Not seriously, anyway.

Walks and hits are both better than outs, though. So give me the guy with more combined hits and walks, or put another way- the guy with the ability to get on base at a better rate.

[Number5]

I don't think anyone has ever argued that a walk is better than a hit. Not seriously, anyway.

Walks and hits are both better than outs, though. So give me the guy with more combined hits and walks, or put another way- the guy with the ability to get on base at a better rate.

[video=youtube;Bnvvn0xrV24]

[weams]

[video=youtube;Bnvvn0xrV24]

I think that is ultimately a very good thing.

[gpolee]

But what about a productive out??????

Sac Bunt > Sac fly > Hits > Walks > Outs

A valid point, especially considering how some are comparing walks to outs, which I never intended...and can't understand some got confused into making the out:walk comparison.

[gpolee]

OK, here's one: Who do like better, Chris Johnson or Jason Kipnis?

Johnson: .321/.358/.457

Kipnis: .284/.366/.452

wOBA says: Johnson .354, Kipnis .357. OBP rules, baby!

I'll take the second baseman with 30 steals every year.

[gpolee]

Please, some stat-head tell me...with all counting stats being equal besides BB/IBP, how many more runs will a team score over the course of a season with 9 players whose OBP is 5 points higher than another nine players? 1/2 of a run scored?

[gpolee]

OK, here's one: Who do like better, Chris Johnson or Jason Kipnis?

Johnson: .321/.358/.457

Kipnis: .284/.366/.452

wOBA says: Johnson .354, Kipnis .357. OBP rules, baby!

Kipnis, with the lower OBP, wins, according to wOBA. OBP just got dethroned.