Walks Are Not as Good as Hits

[CA-ORIOLE]

Whether it's clear or whether it's creamy, it's certainly dreamy.

There you go, a half-whit.

[weams]

Can we all agree on the below?

Hits > Walks > Outs

Well, not in the hypothetical situation that every batter that a pitcher faced would walk. And that that pitcher would not be permitted to be be removed until he recorded at least three outs. And it was still the first inning and 87 men had been to the plate. At that point, I feel strongly that the following 27 outs would be significantly more important than anything.

Unless you feel it would be better to only allow 15 outs to occur. And a snakenado. As the home team.

[isestrex]

I know everyone is in love with OBP and the Orioles could benefit from getting on base more. Point is, if you have players with similar OBP and one hits 50 points higher while taking fewer walks, your team is going to be much more dynamic and score a lot more runs by playing the guy who puts the ball in play. All things being equal contractually, etc., Kendrys Morales vs. Justin Smoak is not even a close comparison of value to a team's offense. No team needs Smoak standing on first just so the eighth hitter steps up to get his swings when it could have Kendrys driving in runs from first with a long single or doubling home two runs. There is an inherent flaw with overvaluing OBP and undervaluing BA.

This is where you lost me. I agree that a hit is more valuable than a walk... even the biggest OBP guys will tell you that. But what the numbers consistently show year after year is that OBP is a very faithful litmus of a player's plate discipline and ability to be productive in other ways. If someone is consistently drawing walks but not getting hits, most coaches and stat crunchers will tell you that he's seeing the ball great but luck is just weighing him down during this small sample. Eventually the walking player will start to get hits to match his expected production. However, if a slumping player is not getting walks, that's a big red flag.

Obviously anyone out there could overvalue any stat (including OBP) but I don't see that happening in many cases. However, we have had a few players here that threaten that OBP wisdom in Jones and Reynolds. Jones' OBP is relatively low but is still hugely productive whereas Reynolds' OBP was always much more impressive than his batting average. These players are some of the few exceptions in baseball, but in general a players' OBP is generally a good determinant of hitting talent.

[VeveJones007]

This is where you lost me. I agree that a hit is more valuable than a walk... even the biggest OBP guys will tell you that. But what the numbers consistently show year after year is that OBP is a very faithful litmus of a player's plate discipline and ability to be productive in other ways. If someone is consistently drawing walks but not getting hits, most coaches and stat crunchers will tell you that he's seeing the ball great but luck is just weighing him down during this small sample. Eventually the walking player will start to get hits to match his expected production. However, if a slumping player is not getting walks, that's a big red flag.

Obviously anyone out there could overvalue any stat (including OBP) but I don't see that happening in many cases. However, we have had a few players here that threaten that OBP wisdom in Jones and Reynolds. Jones' OBP is relatively low but is still hugely productive whereas Reynolds' OBP was always much more impressive than his batting average. These players are some of the few exceptions in baseball, but in general a players' OBP is generally a good determinant of hitting talent.

Let's just stop looking at AVG and OBP and use wOBA.

[OFFNY]

.

If the Orioles finish the 2014 season in the top-5 in the league in BOTH hits AND walks, I think that they (walks and hits) could have a very harmonious relationship with each other. :hearts:

I doubt hits and walks will ever get along. If they did, what kind of offspring would they yield?

Balks.

The opposing pitchers would be driven crazy with all of the combined hits and walks that they would be giving up, they would starting balking uncontrollably.

[NJ BIRD FAN]

If they had done their job and taken their walks they wouldn't be in that situation. The team with the most walks scores usually the most runs.

This isn't even remotely true. TB led the league in walks and were 11th in runs. The list goes on and on.

[25 Nuggets]

Even in advanced statistics the value of a single is slightly better than that of a walk.

Just as a quick example there is RPA or Run Production Average, conveniently available by Google search: Link

Linear weights

Walk/HBP/reach on error = .165 runs

Single = .29 runs

Double = .41 runs

Triple = .70 runs

Home Run = 1.44 runs

In this case a single is substantially better than a walk. But I don't know how many systems use RPA other than Mike Gimbel's software.

[gpolee]

There's also a flaw in overvaluing BA and undervaluing OBP. Or ignoring whether the BA is accompanied by a high or low SLG. That's why most of us look at stats like OPS or (even better) wOBA to more properly balance the various components.

Almost every single person in SABR-nirvana overvalues OBP (disclosure; i'm a Bill James head from the 80's Abstracts). Tell me one person - besdies me - whom you would accuse of overvaluing batting average. Like voter fraud, it's statistically insignificant. But it is fraudulent to promote the idea that equal OBP with lower BA results in more runs. Please. someone tell me the percentage of RBIs resulting from wallks as opposed to RBIs resulting from hits. And tell me the percentage of Runs scored resulting from walks versus percentage of Runs scored resulting from hits. I'll guess 1% vs. 97% for both.

[gpolee]

Well, not in the hypothetical situation that every batter that a pitcher faced would walk. And that that pitcher would not be permitted to be be removed until he recorded at least three outs. And it was still the first inning and 87 men had been to the plate. At that point, I feel strongly that the following 27 outs would be significantly more important than anything.

Unless you feel it would be better to only allow 15 outs to occur. And a snakenado. As the home team.

Your hypothetical is equally as valid as a Snakenado or Sharknado hitting Baltimore. Come on back to reality, my friend.

[El Gordo]

This isn't even remotely true. TB led the league in walks and were 11th in runs. The list goes on and on.

You take one exception to the rule and claim the rule isn't remotely true? Why not use a slightly larger SS. I said usually scores the most runs. Did you read that part. That's another way of saying there's a strong correlation between most BB's and most R. Do you really disagree with that?

[gpolee]

This is where you lost me. I agree that a hit is more valuable than a walk... even the biggest OBP guys will tell you that. But what the numbers consistently show year after year is that OBP is a very faithful litmus of a player's plate discipline and ability to be productive in other ways. If someone is consistently drawing walks but not getting hits, most coaches and stat crunchers will tell you that he's seeing the ball great but luck is just weighing him down during this small sample. Eventually the walking player will start to get hits to match his expected production. However, if a slumping player is not getting walks, that's a big red flag.

Obviously anyone out there could overvalue any stat (including OBP) but I don't see that happening in many cases. However, we have had a few players here that threaten that OBP wisdom in Jones and Reynolds. Jones' OBP is relatively low but is still hugely productive whereas Reynolds' OBP was always much more impressive than his batting average. These players are some of the few exceptions in baseball, but in general a players' OBP is generally a good determinant of hitting talent.

"Eventually" DOES NOT COUNT. Don't change the guidelines to fit your belief system.

[gpolee]

This is where you lost me. I agree that a hit is more valuable than a walk... even the biggest OBP guys will tell you that. But what the numbers consistently show year after year is that OBP is a very faithful litmus of a player's plate discipline and ability to be productive in other ways. If someone is consistently drawing walks but not getting hits, most coaches and stat crunchers will tell you that he's seeing the ball great but luck is just weighing him down during this small sample. Eventually the walking player will start to get hits to match his expected production. However, if a slumping player is not getting walks, that's a big red flag.

Obviously anyone out there could overvalue any stat (including OBP) but I don't see that happening in many cases. However, we have had a few players here that threaten that OBP wisdom in Jones and Reynolds. Jones' OBP is relatively low but is still hugely productive whereas Reynolds' OBP was always much more impressive than his batting average. These players are some of the few exceptions in baseball, but in general a players' OBP is generally a good determinant of hitting talent

OBP sure is. So is BA - though nobody is allowed to say it anymore. If you take walks and hit poorly - see Smoak and Ike Davis - your value in scoring truns for your team is substantially lower than is Adam Jones' value. Or Kendrys/Nelson Cruz's value. And when you are choosing 10 points of OBP as being more valuable that 50 points of batting average...it's wholly unrealistic you'll score more runs with the miniscule bump in OBP.

[CA-ORIOLE]

OBP sure is. So is BA - though nobody is allowed to say it anymore. If you take walks and hit poorly - see Smoak and Ike Davis - your value in scoring truns for your team is substantially lower than is Adam Jones' value. Or Kendrys/Nelson Cruz's value. And when you are choosing 10 points of OBP as being more valuable that 50 points of batting average...it's wholly unrealistic you'll score more runs with the miniscule bump in OBP.

Like Frobby, and others have said, look at woba/weighted averages instead of laying out weak arguments. It was funny for awhile but has gotten old.

[weams]

Like Frobby, and others have said, look at woba/weighted averages instead of laying out weak arguments. It was funny for awhile but has gotten old.

I will say this...if you are on base 40% of the time, you'll score a heck of a lot of runs.

[Frobby]

OK, here's one: Who do like better, Chris Johnson or Jason Kipnis?

Johnson: .321/.358/.457

Kipnis: .284/.366/.452

wOBA says: Johnson .354, Kipnis .357. OBP rules, baby!