why are people so eager to overpay manny machado?

[awannabegeek]

Wouldn't that represent an outlier as opposed to some evidence to lead you to believe that Manny will improve at that age? Manny now even is due for some regression, even at his age i would be inclined to believe that last year was an outlier that I wouldn't expect him to improve upon, especially in his thirties.

Hmmph...that's interesting, I just looked up Brooks' numbers for those years...hmmph...interesting. With that said, when projecting future value, it is a better idea to follow the expecting aging curve than to have an expectation of an outlier/exception to the rule.

[El Gordo]

Wouldn't that represent an outlier as opposed to some evidence to lead you to believe that Manny will improve at that age? Manny now even is due for some regression, even at his age i would be inclined to believe that last year was an outlier that I wouldn't expect him to improve upon, especially in his thirties.

I wouldn't regard it as an outlier. As I said elsewhere I find it hard to believe he can't improve his play simply by learning the league and positioning. That's how Cal and Brooks improved. Mark Belanger, one of the best defensive players ever, had a great first full season at 24 with 27 RS. But his best season was at 31 with 35 RS, and his best 6 years were between ages 29 and 34. Manny 's year was an outlier only if you think he is little better than an average player. I don't see that in him. Maybe you do.

[El Gordo]

Hmmph...that's interesting, I just looked up Brooks' numbers for those years...hmmph...interesting. With that said, when projecting future value, it is a better idea to follow the expecting aging curve than to have an expectation of an outlier/exception to the rule.

Maybe if you never watched Brooks play. I did, and as good as he was, Manny's skill set is better. It remains to be seen what he does with it, but the potential to be better for years to come is there.

[awannabegeek]

I wouldn't regard it as an outlier. As I said elsewhere I find it hard to believe he can't improve his play simply by learning the league and positioning. That's how Cal and Brooks improved. Mark Belanger, one of the best defensive players ever, had a great first full season at 24 with 27 RS. But his best season was at 31 with 35 RS, and his best 6 years were between ages 29 and 34. Manny 's year was an outlier only if you think he is little better than an average player. I don't see that in him. Maybe you do.

Well in regards to Brooks, I didn't actually look up the numbers until you responded to my post...and was surprised

With that said, in general, you want to project using rules, not using exceptions to rules. I wouldn't expect Machado to put up his best defensive years as a 30 year old, I expect we are getting his peak defensive years over the next 5-6 years.

[awannabegeek]

Maybe if you never watched Brooks play. I did, and as good as he was, Manny's skill set is better. It remains to be seen what he does with it, but the potential to be better for years to come is there.

I'm too young to have watched Brooks play...so all I have is anecdotal accounts of his D(and some highlights)

[El Gordo]

Well in regards to Brooks, I didn't actually look up the numbers until you responded to my post...and was surprised

With that said, in general, you want to project using rules, not using exceptions to rules. I wouldn't expect Machado to put up his best defensive years as a 30 year old, I expect we are getting his peak defensive years over the next 5-6 years.

Maybe though I doubt it, but if we do, then one of those next 5-6 years will be the most RS in a season by any player at any position, ever. And that will be worth a few extra WAR and a few more $$$.

[El Gordo]

Well in regards to Brooks, I didn't actually look up the numbers until you responded to my post...and was surprised

With that said, in general, you want to project using rules, not using exceptions to rules. I wouldn't expect Machado to put up his best defensive years as a 30 year old, I expect we are getting his peak defensive years over the next 5-6 years.

I think most projections use a combination of comparable players as well as the aggregate tendencies of players in general. The only comp close to Manny IMO is Brooks. What I have noticed with elite players is that their exceptional physical skills tend to peak a little later than average, and their technical skills come to a peak a bit later than that. This tends to result in a longer plateau, followed by a second peak in the mid 30's, before decline. Unless you are Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds.

[Bradysburns]

Because he's awesome?

[OFFNY]

.

The Orioles have a good thing going for the first time in a loooooooong time ....... 2 straight winning seasons, 1 playoff birth, and a team that looks very likely to make it 3 straight (winning seasons) in 2014. But the 14 straight losing seasons that we sustained isn't that far in the past, so the thought of going back there makes a lot of us anxious, and eager to do whatever it takes to avoid it.

So, considering all of that ........ it's understandable why some Oriole fans want to lock up (and risk overpaying) not only Machado, but also Davis and/or Hardy and/or Wieters, etc. to make sure that they are here along with Adam Jones (already locked up through the 2018 season) for a long time to come. We've got a good thing going, and we're anxious about making sure that it stays that way ........ and one way to ease the anxiety and give Oriole fans a sense of security and confidence is to lock up young stars/young potential stars to multiple year contracts.

Fortunately, I believe that our G.M. and our manager both have cooler heads than do we Oriole fans, and will make decisions that are well thought out, as opposed to ones that are made to ease immediate anxiety. I think that what happened with Grant Balfour these past 5 weeks is a good example of the front office (and Bucky, presuming that he has some input in all of the major moves) weathering the temporary storm, and making a prudent decision, not an anxiety-filled, fan-appeasing one.

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't regard it as an outlier. As I said elsewhere I find it hard to believe he can't improve his play simply by learning the league and positioning. That's how Cal and Brooks improved. Mark Belanger, one of the best defensive players ever, had a great first full season at 24 with 27 RS. But his best season was at 31 with 35 RS, and his best 6 years were between ages 29 and 34. Manny 's year was an outlier only if you think he is little better than an average player. I don't see that in him. Maybe you do.

Manny had a season equal to (or at least very close to) the best seasons of all time. While I would love for him to establish a new level of defense heretofore unseen, I doubt that's the likely case.

My gut says his defense will be similar to the hitting of players like Williams and Kaline and A-Rod, players who had astounding seasons at young ages and continued to be excellent. But didn't significantly progress in value much beyond those astounding early peaks.

[MurphDogg]

Manny had a season equal to (or at least very close to) the best seasons of all time. While I would love for him to establish a new level of defense heretofore unseen, I doubt that's the likely case.

My gut says his defense will be similar to the hitting of players like Williams and Kaline and A-Rod, players who had astounding seasons at young ages and continued to be excellent. But didn't significantly progress in value much beyond those astounding early peaks.

Yep, do people also think Trout will significantly improve on his last two seasons?

[DrungoHazewood]

Yep, do people also think Trout will significantly improve on his last two seasons?

Right. Possible but unlikely. You never count on someone becoming the best player ever. Trout could hold serve on everything else and also hit 55 homers. Or hit .370. Or have a +30 season in center. But then he'd be as good or better than Ruth in a much harder league. Uncharted territory.