why are people so eager to overpay manny machado?

[El Gordo]

For the last four years, Beltre has been Mike Schmidt with the bat.

OK maybe he will be Mike Schmidt with the bat. .282 .334 .478 .812, 27 HR, 93 RBI doesn't seem out side Manny's reach.

[atomic]

I have no problem signing long term contracts, but let the guy prove himself first. There have been plenty of players over the years who look great their first season and then they struggle to adjust or fall off a cliff a couple years down the line. I don't feel safe signing a long term contract until the arbitration years since there are too many question marks. You might save money, but having a guy signed for 16-17 mil a year when hes struggling to stay at a major league level is a huge risk too.

Manny struggled the second half of the season at the plate.

[Redskins Rick]

Manny struggled the second half of the season at the plate.

Big deal, it was his first full MLB season, and he probably wore down, and teams made adjustments.

He will make adjustments. I will be willing to bet, when Manny is healthy he will resemble Manny of the 1st half.

[Frobby]

For the last four years, Beltre has been Mike Schmidt with the bat.

While Beltre has hit well in recent years, if you adjust for context, he is nowhere near Mike Schmidt with the bat. Schmidt had a career OPS+ of 147, a figure Beltre has exceeded one time in his career. Schmidt won the HR title 8 times, the RBI title 4 times, led the league in slugging and OPS five times each, led the league in OPS+ six times. Beltre won one HR title (in 2004) and has never led the league in any of the other categories I mentioned.

That said, I'd be fine with it if Manny was as good a hitter as Beltre has been over his career (114 OPS+), though I'll bet he'll be better.

[cacavolante]

OK maybe he will be Mike Schmidt with the bat. .282 .334 .478 .812, 27 HR, 93 RBI doesn't seem out side Manny's reach.

And to be clear I only meant that Beltre has hit like Schmidt in his early early to mid thirties. If Manny is somehow able to to put together a few seasons like Beltre's most recent ones before becoming a free agent he will probably get the $200 million a few people are talking about. And while he's very young I just think he is a long long way from those numbers.

[atomic]

Big deal, it was his first full MLB season, and he probably wore down, and teams made adjustments.

He will make adjustments. I will be willing to bet, when Manny is healthy he will resemble Manny of the 1st half.

I am just stating facts. Maybe he won't make adjustments. Who knows. You shouldn't pay him before you have to as it provides no benefit to you.

[AlbionHero]

Big deal, it was his first full MLB season, and he probably wore down, and teams made adjustments.

He will make adjustments. I will be willing to bet, when Manny is healthy he will resemble Manny of the 1st half.

You're willing to give him a big guaranteed contract because you THINK he will adjust? For the kinda money people are saying here, you better be 100% sure he has adjusted before giving him that money. He had a .647 OPS in the 2nd half, and thats not worth paying big money to until he can prove that was a fluke.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I am just stating facts. Maybe he won't make adjustments. Who knows. You shouldn't pay him before you have to as it provides no benefit to you.

Except for the fact that once he's proven it for multiple years the whole league will be lining up to pay him A LOT more than what we'd have to pay him now. The idea is that you pay him less now due to the uncertainty factor.

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[cacavolante]

While Beltre has hit well in recent years, if you adjust for context, he is nowhere near Mike Schmidt with the bat. Schmidt had a career OPS+ of 147, a figure Beltre has exceeded one time in his career. Schmidt won the HR title 8 times, the RBI title 4 times, led the league in slugging and OPS five times each, led the league in OPS+ six times. Beltre won one HR title (in 2004) and has never led the league in any of the other categories I mentioned.

That said, I'd be fine with it if Manny was as good a hitter as Beltre has been over his career (114 OPS+), though I'll bet he'll be better.

Right. I wasn't trying to compare their entire careers. I was unclear about that. Also even for those four years he was a bit of a lesser hitter than Schmidt.

[Redskins Rick]

You're willing to give him a big guaranteed contract because you THINK he will adjust? For the kinda money people are saying here, you better be 100% sure he has adjusted before giving him that money. He had a .647 OPS in the 2nd half, and thats not worth paying big money to until he can prove that was a fluke.

Actually, I am a bit more conservative than big money.

I want them to be like the Braves, and take a page out of the Indian playbook.

You sign them to bigger money now, and it saves you from arbitration and the really big money, they could be making.

Is it a risk, yes, but so is crossing the street, and some players like Manny, with a bigger upside than most, it would keep him around longer and probably save some money for the team in the long run.

[El Gordo]

I am just stating facts. Maybe he won't make adjustments. Who knows. You shouldn't pay him before you have to as it provides no benefit to you.

If you wait until you have to, with a player of Manny's potential, you won't be able to afford it. Thats the point. Of course there's a risk involved, but is it greater than the risk of losing him in his prime years? Apparently the risk averse proponents don't value Manny's potential all that much because his glove exceeds his bat at this point in is career.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I am just stating facts. Maybe he won't make adjustments. Who knows. You shouldn't pay him before you have to as it provides no benefit to you.

Aren't you hyper-critical of the os front office for not being major players for FA? Seems like the opposite of the smart way of not the Yankees or dodgers to build a team... Sign high-priced vets at a premium but let your young talent walk.

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[El Gordo]

You're willing to give him a big guaranteed contract because you THINK he will adjust? For the kinda money people are saying here, you better be 100% sure he has adjusted before giving him that money. He had a .647 OPS in the 2nd half, and thats not worth paying big money to until he can prove that was a fluke.

When do you ever KNOW anything in baseball. This is such a tedious argument. It's always based on what you think, never on what you know. The odds are pretty good that Manny will be a 4+WAR player over the next 6-8 years at least. That's about 25 M worth of production per year. To pay him 80-100 M for that time period does not seem to be anything like the risk of paying Pujols, Prince, or even Ellsbury, and CHoo, what they got.

[AlbionHero]

The difference is that if we don't sign him, we'd pay him like 30 million over the next 5 years based on projected arbitration values. So you'd pay him an extra 50-70 million just to have him under control for 2 more years? Thats not a bargain, thats paying him to be a Superstar player.

[Frobby]

The difference is that if we don't sign him, we'd pay him like 30 million over the next 5 years based on projected arbitration values. So you'd pay him an extra 50-70 million just to have him under control for 2 more years? Thats not a bargain, thats paying him to be a Superstar player.

Where are you getting these numbers? You seem to be assuming that someone is arguing for 7 years, $80-100 mm. Where are you getting that from?

Oh, I see, you are getting it from El Gordo's post. I think that post is going overboard in terms of what we would offer Manny now.