why are people so eager to overpay manny machado?

[AlbionHero]

Where are you getting these numbers? You seem to be assuming that someone is arguing for 7 years, $80-100 mm. Where are you getting that from?

Not in this topic specifically, but 7 years/80 mil or 8 years/100 mil have been normal numbers I've been seeing people throw around.

[Can_of_corn]

Where are you getting these numbers? You seem to be assuming that someone is arguing for 7 years, $80-100 mm. Where are you getting that from?

Oh, I see, you are getting it from El Gordo's post. I think that post is going overboard in terms of what we would offer Manny now.

Mitch Williams suggested 10/250.

[El Gordo]

The difference is that if we don't sign him, we'd pay him like 30 million over the next 5 years based on projected arbitration values. So you'd pay him an extra 50-70 million just to have him under control for 2 more years? Thats not a bargain, thats paying him to be a Superstar player.

So your point of view is that the odds are, Manny's bat will be what it was the second half of last season, and his defense will begin to decline before he is a FA, because Drungo says so, so he won't be worth 20 M per in his age 26 -34 years? I don't get this. Lets say we were to sign him before this season to 8/100M. He should be worth at least 4 WAR per year during that time(I know you don't think so, but you are in a minority) That would mean you are paying him 12M per to produce at a 24 M per rate. Too risky huh?

[AlbionHero]

So your point of view is that the odds are, Manny's bat will be what it was the second half of last season, and his defense will begin to decline before he is a FA, because Drungo says so, so he won't be worth 20 M per in his age 26 -34 years? I don't get this. Lets say we were to sign him before this season to 8/100M. He should be worth at least 4 WAR per year during that time(I know you don't think so, but you are in a minority) That would mean you are paying him 12M per to produce at a 24 M per rate. Too risky huh?

I have no doubt he'll be around 4 WAR per season, and in normal circumstances, 12M/year would be fine to pay him... if it was a normal free agent contract. But its not, he's going to be paid a lot less than that for the same production, so why give him far more? Like I said earlier, dangling a carrot infront of him instead of giving him lots of guaranteed money will drive him to become better, so theres no reason to give him long term security already. We can pay him like 20 million or so over the next 4 years, and then worry about giving him an extension. If he's out of our price range at that point, oh well. We'll take the final year in arbitration or try to move him for a bunch of prospects. Even if we signed him now, theres very little chance he'd stick around past 28/29 anyway, so we'd just get a few extra seasons while paying him significantly more money per year then he'd get on the open market to begin with.

The best way to build a team IMO is to build up hometown guys and then trade them for tons of prospects when they are close to free agency. I'd rather do that then give a giant contract to a guy whos main value is based around defense, since thats one of the first things that drop off.

[El Gordo]

Where are you getting these numbers? You seem to be assuming that someone is arguing for 7 years, $80-100 mm. Where are you getting that from?

Oh, I see, you are getting it from El Gordo's post. I think that post is going overboard in terms of what we would offer Manny now.

I'm just talking about projecting his value. I wouldn't offer him anything this season( I would have given him a bit more of a raise to sweeten things for later). I want to see how he recovers from his injury and adjusts to the way he was pitched the second half of 2013. If he does then I would offer him 8/100 M. Which he will most likely turn down. He probably wouldn't go beyond 6 years as Stotle was saying. So maybe we could settle for 6/80M.

[cacavolante]

If you wait until you have to, with a player of Manny's potential, you won't be able to afford it. Thats the point. Of course there's a risk involved, but is it greater than the risk of losing him in his prime years? Apparently the risk averse proponents don't value Manny's potential all that much because his glove exceeds his bat at this point in is career.

I actually want to sign Manny to an extension. Even if we have seen his offensive ceiling (which is doubtful), provided he stays healthy his defensive value will almost certainly make him worth whatever contract he gets through his twenties. But unless he takes a major step forward at the plate I just don't seem him getting huge arbitration numbers. I'm hoping we could use this to our advantage. Maybe it wont work. The braves seem to have moved the market for these extensions in a more favorable direction for the players and the time for getting a bargain may be over. If we have to pay a little more to lock up his prime years like Atlanta did with Freddie Freeman then maybe we do that. But he is still far away from free agency, has injury concerns (no matter how big one believes them to be) and there are reasonable doubts about whether he can ever approach being an elite hitter. Only six players in mlb history have ever received $200 million contracts. This is almost certain to change with Trout and Harper, and while I love Manny and age will be on his side its hard for me to see him reaching that figure. If we can sign him for 10 $100 I guess I can live with that but as Stotle pointed out such a deal would probably have to include an opt out, and 8 $80 doesn't seem like any kind of discount to me at all.

[cacavolante]

I'm just talking about projecting his value. I wouldn't offer him anything this season( I would have given him a bit more of a raise to sweeten things for later). I want to see how he recovers from his injury and adjusts to the way he was pitched the second half of 2013. If he does then I would offer him 8/100 M. Which he will most likely turn down. He probably wouldn't go beyond 6 years as Stotle was saying. So maybe we could settle for 6/80M.

But if you offer 6 $80 after this season aren't you paying a huge amount for just 2 FA years.

[AlbionHero]

But if you offer 6 $80 after this season aren't you paying a huge amount for just 2 FA years.

Yeah, assuming he would get about 30 mil or so in his Arbitration years, thats 50 million for 2 FA years... even on the open market, he would never get 25 million a year unless he turns into an elite hitter. Thats far too much money to give him just to lock him up for an extra 2 years.

[atomic]

Except for the fact that once he's proven it for multiple years the whole league will be lining up to pay him A LOT more than what we'd have to pay him now. The idea is that you pay him less now due to the uncertainty factor.

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He has five years left with the O's whether he likes it or not. I would wait two more years before offering him an extension. That would pay him well for last three years with the club and add 3 or 4 years into his free agency. That is if he is healthy and performs well the next two seasons.

Next season he plays for 540k or something.

[BohKnowsBmore]

He has five years left with the O's whether he likes it or not. I would wait two more years before offering him an extension. That would pay him well for last three years with the club and add 3 or 4 years into his free agency. That is if he is healthy and performs well the next two seasons.

Next season he plays for 540k or something.

That's a fair position to take, I just believe the price will increase significantly at that point.

[gpolee]

True, this is why Brooks' best years with the glove were ages 30-32 because all players adhere as slavishly to this rule as you do.

You da man, Gordo!

[El Gordo]

But if you offer 6 $80 after this season aren't you paying a huge amount for just 2 FA years.

Yes but if you don't, you wont have him at allonce he is FA. So you would prefer to pay him 30 M through arbitration and then him walk for a pick? Yeah that's the safe bet.

[calmunderfire]

I agree with you OP. Manny Machado is an Oriole until 2018. That's another 5 entire years.

Let's watch and evaluate, but more importantly not worry about his contract extension.

[cacavolante]

Yes but if you don't, you wont have him at allonce he is FA. So you would prefer to pay him 30 M through arbitration and then him walk for a pick? Yeah that's the safe bet.

I don't recall ever saying anything about letting him walk and taking the pick. But if the only other option is 6 $80 and he has not shown massive improvement as a hitter by this time next year (which is when you said you'd offer this deal), I would definitely consider it.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, assuming he would get about 30 mil or so in his Arbitration years, thats 50 million for 2 FA years... even on the open market, he would never get 25 million a year unless he turns into an elite hitter. Thats far too much money to give him just to lock him up for an extra 2 years.

But you are compensating him for the four years you are getting 100M worth of production for 30 M. That's an incentive to give you the extra 2 years.