Hardy confused from lack of extension talk

[El Gordo]

There are so many factors to consider with Hardy. What teams other than the MFY are desperate for a SS? I can't think of too many. Maybe BOS if they want to move Bogaerts back to third. Also how attractive will he be with a QO pick hanging around his neck? I think DD is playing hard ball with JJ and they will settle on some kind of extension. Maybe 3/40 with an option for four. Replacing Hardy will be almost impossible and will cost a lot in trade. Not a wise option IMO.

[waroriole]

It could work out. I just think it's a risk not worth taking.

Then who plays SS?

[mdbdotcom]

Then who plays SS?

Machado... Asdrubal Cabrera... Ivan De Jesus Jr... someone we trade for

Lots of possibilities to find someone they won't be paying $13 million or more to at age 36. It would be a shame to repeat "the Roberts mistake" with Hardy.

[Babkins]

If we don't extend Hardy, then I really hope he gets to win a World Series with us this year. He's been a huge part of this club's turnaround.

[mdbdotcom]

If we don't extend Hardy, then I really hope he gets to win a World Series with us this year. He's been a huge part of this club's turnaround.

I agree whole-Hardy-ly. He's been great for the O's and I wish him all the best. If he would be willing to move to 3B, I'd be more inclined to re-sign him.

[waroriole]

Good question. We could move Machado to SS and find a 3B or we can find someone to play SS. I think Flaherty could handle it defensively from what I've seen. It's unlikely that you'll replace Hardy with someone as good as Hardy. Getting a good glove guy on the cheap. Pedro Florimon? Not necessarily him but someone like that. Use the dollars saved on Hardy to fortify other spots. I would have to see who might be available through trade as well. Alexei Ramirez is signed through 2015 with a team option for 2016. Not too much risk there but you have go give up something and he's 33 himself.

They seem set on Manny staying at 3B, but who knows. I guess when it comes down to it, I'd rather give Hardy 4/45ish than try to plug the hole with mediocrity on the cheap, even if it means spending a little more elsewhere.

I'm also not interested in bringing back Wieters or Davis, so that could be a good place for savings.

Aren't the MFY supposed to have Drew take over for Jeter next year? Hopefully, that eliminates the FA competition.

[Bahama O's Fan]

What's the SS market? I think NY goes for Hanley. What's left for JJ? If we move Manny to SS, what's available in the 3B market?

[Frobby]

I agree Hardy can get about 4/$52 mm on the open market. I'd pay him, if we can sign him for about that. I figure we get more than $13 mm in value the first two years, about that much in year 3, and somewhat less in year 4. Per fangraphs, Hardy already has been worth $14.4 mm this year, with 25% of the season still to be played. He's been worth $63 mm in the 3.7 seasons we've had him. If I overpay him a little in the end, I can live with it.

[mdbdotcom]

Hardy's value is in his glove at SS. What's the point of re-signing him to play 3B?

I feel pretty confident that Hardy at 3B and Manny at SS would be a good left-side for three or four years. But for me, the key signing this off-season will be signing Manny to an extension. If it doesn't happen this year, he likely will be gone after his age 6 season. If he'd rather play SS, I'd move him to SS. And if he'd rather stay at 3B, I'd keep him there. Manny is the key, not Hardy.

[SteveO]

I think the reason there has not been extension discussions is pretty obvious. Look at what happened with Cruz, Morales and others who extended qualifying offers last offseason and look at the numbers offensively that JJ has put up and there is your answer.

DD most likely looks at JJ having an off year with the bat and is calculating that by extending him an QO, it will significantly decrease his value on the open market and perhaps allow the Orioles to make a pitch like 3/30 to 3/33ish and have it be attractive. Try to sign him now he likely wants a minimum of 4 yrs, more likely 5 years. Either that or JJ signs the QO and gets a higher rate while the O's are only committed to one year.

Its a gamble but with Machado on board regardless of what happens with JJ its a gamble that he can afford to take and should take. DD is not in the lets make JJ happy business, he is in the lets get the best talent at the best price business and it makes sense to use the QO and the leverage it provides to his advantage.

[Ridgway22]

If JJ won't back off four years......

This offseason, Qualifying offer to JJ, he'll turn it down.

Trade Switch Hitting Lesser Deity Matt Wieters to Colorado for the injury risk shortstop currently known as Troy Tulowitzki.

This of course makes the assumption Caleb Joseph can handle dish duty full time, and Angelos doesn't choke on Tulo's remaining contract.

It also assumes MW is enough for Colorado.

Personally, I love JJ and never take his steady, gold glove defense for granted. But four years is a heck of a commitment, and his range, hands, bat, and lack of speed are not going to trend favorably.

Just my humble opinion, and I will now apply flame retardant material to my body.

[isestrex]

If JJ won't back off four years......

This offseason, Qualifying offer to JJ, he'll turn it down.

Trade Switch Hitting Lesser Deity Matt Wieters to Colorado for the injury risk shortstop currently known as Troy Tulowitzki.

This of course makes the assumption Caleb Joseph can handle dish duty full time, and Angelos doesn't choke on Tulo's remaining contract.

It also assumes MW is enough for Colorado.

Personally, I love JJ and never take his steady, gold glove defense for granted. But four years is a heck of a commitment, and his range, hands, bat, and lack of speed are not going to trend favorably.

Just my humble opinion, and I will now apply flame retardant material to my body.

I like the idea but Wieters isn't enough for Tulo. They will want Harvey and D. Alvarez in addition to Wieters and then hang up when Dan chuckles no in starting to negotiate.

[Il BuonO]

I agree Hardy can get about 4/$52 mm on the open market. I'd pay him, if we can sign him for about that. I figure we get more than $13 mm in value the first two years, about that much in year 3, and somewhat less in year 4. Per fangraphs, Hardy already has been worth $14.4 mm this year, with 25% of the season still to be played. He's been worth $63 mm in the 3.7 seasons we've had him. If I overpay him a little in the end, I can live with it.

I wouldn't have agreed with you at the start of the season or even a month or two into it when his HR power seemed to be affected by his back injury. And that would be my concern going forward, his injury history.

However, on the positive side he's currently leading the team in doubles. So, while the back injury may have slowed his ability to turn on a pitch like he normally would have in years past he has found away to contribute nonetheless. And his defense is still producing 2.5 dWAR.

I'd be more comfortable with three years and an option than four, giving him the QO if he declines. Any thoughts of JJ moving in the future should be with idea he moves to 2B not to 3B. Remember he's had shoulder problems, too, and if we're going to sign him long term you want him preserved.

Schoop can handle 3B if he gets the reps. He was thrown into position so didn't look good there, but he has a stronger arm than JJ and could make the move if Manny was moved to SS.

All this dismisses the idea that they'll just offer him the QO and if he declines and leaves they move Flaherty to SS who has shown he can field the position well enough. This should not be dismissed as an idea the Orioles would consider. We are not that far removed from picking up players like Lew Ford when we needed depth. Flaherty could be rationalized as a light hitting, slick fielding SS by DD if JJ walks. We won't overpay for Hardy just like we didn't for Jim Johnson.

[SteveO]

There are a lot of options. The least favorable one for the long term success of this team IMO is handing him a 4 year deal for more than 40 million. If the O's can bring him back on a 3 year deal and limit their liability than I am all for it, if not then you move on and find a SS or 3B who is a good fielder and do a little something with the bat. There are more than a couple of those guys around who can be had as FA or via trade without giving up KG, Bundy, Cisco etc.

The O's would be nuts to not let a guy who is having a down year test the market. Give him a QO and if he turns it down see what the market will bear, if someone overpays then so be it. DD did not get to be a good GM by being overly sentimental about guys, he got to be a good GM by wisely spending the resources he has.

[OriolesMagic83]

O's fans confused by lack of power from Hardy. I'm not sure what kind of extension Hardy thinks a singles hitting SS should get. I would be hard pressed to pay him over $10 mill/year.