Batting third, and playing RF - Francisco Peguero

[wildcard]

I'd rather see Alvarez over Peguero, Dickerson, Hoes or anyone else we want to talk about now. Lough is a Backup OF'er. YYoung is a BA driven, no defense, playing OF. Is that even his position? Give me Alvarez all day.

Alvarez has something to prove at AAA before he makes a jump to the majors IMO. I hope he does well.

[PaulFolk]

Because if he is an OBP guy he can help the team in that way. Measuring speed guys on OPS is not a good way to assess their value. Say Peguero could produce a 350 OBP.

Peguero has a lifetime OBP of .337 in the minors, including .320 at Triple-A, in a hitter friendly league. You're suggesting that he could come to the majors and suddenly get on base at a rate he's never approached in the minors? And put up an OBP that would currently rank second highest on the team behind Chris Davis?

If you're going to dream about things that will never happen, why not wish for a date with Scarlett Johansson? You're really restricting yourself with this Peguero thing.

[wildcard]

Peguero has a lifetime OBP of .337 in the minors, including .320 at Triple-A, in a hitter friendly league. You're suggesting that he could come to the majors and suddenly get on base at a rate he's never approached in the minors? And put up an OBP that would currently rank second highest on the team behind Chris Davis?

If you're going to dream about things that will never happen, why not wish for a date with Scarlett Johansson? You're really restricting yourself with this Peguero thing.

Never say never unless its true.

Some Peguero stats.

2009 A Ball, 359 OBP, 252 PA

2010 A+ Ball, 358 OBP, 538 PA

2013 AAA Ball, 354 OBP, 288 PA

2014 AAA Ball, 349 OBP, 43 PA

I am no close to be sold on Peguero. But I think he is worth following. If Lough was hitting like he is supposed to hit there is no issue. But Peguero is 9 days from the end of a rehab period where a decision needs to be made. We will see.

Oh and I will take my wife over Scarlett Johansson any day of the week.

[Ohfan67]

The Orioles need to look outside the organization for a LF. There are no good internal options IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Never say never unless its true.

Some Peguero stats.

2009 A Ball, 359 OBP, 252 PA

2010 A+ Ball, 358 OBP, 538 PA

2013 AAA Ball, 354 OBP, 288 PA

2014 AAA Ball, 349 OBP, 43 PA

The separation between his minor league average and OBP is microscopic - he's hit .306 but has a .337 OBP. That's driven by a ridiculously low walk rate of 23 per 600 PAs. Against minor league pitching he literally has less control of the strike zone than Adam Jones does in the majors. For Peguero to have a good OBP in the majors he will have to hit over .300, which he hasn't done in 764 PAs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Last year his OBP was 6th on the Fresno Grizzles (among players with over 100 PAs), and in 2012 he was Fresno's 14th-best hitter at getting on base.

If he were to ever have a .350+ OBP in the majors it would be either a monumental player development lighting strike, or a brief, out-of-nowhere David Newhan-like BABIP spike. Or... he goes 2-for-5 in an brief fill-in role.

If I were going to totally roll the dice on an OBP project at Norfolk it would have to be Jemile Weeks, who had almost 80% of Peguero's professional career walk total while at Sacramento last season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there anything that gives you hope that Lough will turn things around this year?

I think the issue at hand here is that people (including myself) are clamoring for different options not because we think they're better than Lough career wise...but they're better than Lough this year.

More importantly, I'd imagine, is that OPS is not a great stat to use to evaluate light hitting players whose value is mostly wrapped up in speed/defense and often-times batting average. Think: Rajai Davis.

Yes, his minor league record and last year's MLB performance. I've never been high on him, in fact I was probably one of the more critical voices towards him this offseason. But I still think he can OPS .650-.700 with plus defense and baserunning, which has value as a platoon or reserve player (especially if you can get Cruz out of LF).

[Aglets]

If I were going to totally roll the dice on an OBP project at Norfolk it would have to be Jemile Weeks, who had almost 80% of Peguero's professional career walk total while at Sacramento last season.

/looks up Weeks's stat line for this year:

.288/.448/.413 at AAA

Yea that'll play. I think I'd put Schoop on the bus tomorrow at this point to give Weeks a shot.

[DrungoHazewood]

/looks up Weeks's stat line for this year:

.288/.448/.413 at AAA

Yea that'll play. I think I'd put Schoop on the bus tomorrow at this point to give Weeks a shot.

That may not be a bad idea, but just know that Week's OBP is likely going to be much closer to his MLB number (.319) than his AAA line (.394). When you have a AAA ISO of .100 that's pretty dependent on triples you're going to see big declines in your walk rate.

The OBP bump from Schoop to Weeks would be nice, but I also think Weeks is a pretty poor fielder.

[wildcard]

The separation between his minor league average and OBP is microscopic - he's hit .306 but has a .337 OBP. That's driven by a ridiculously low walk rate of 23 per 600 PAs. Against minor league pitching he literally has less control of the strike zone than Adam Jones does in the majors. For Peguero to have a good OBP in the majors he will have to hit over .300, which he hasn't done in 764 PAs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Last year his OBP was 6th on the Fresno Grizzles (among players with over 100 PAs), and in 2012 he was Fresno's 14th-best hitter at getting on base.

If he were to ever have a .350+ OBP in the majors it would be either a monumental player development lighting strike, or a brief, out-of-nowhere David Newhan-like BABIP spike. Or... he goes 2-for-5 in an brief fill-in role.

If I were going to totally roll the dice on an OBP project at Norfolk it would have to be Jemile Weeks, who had almost 80% of Peguero's professional career walk total while at Sacramento last season.

Peguero had a concussion from being hit in the head with a pitch last year.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/peguero-overcomes-concussions-reach-big-leagues

[LookitsPuck]

Yes, his minor league record and last year's MLB performance. I've never been high on him, in fact I was probably one of the more critical voices towards him this offseason. But I still think he can OPS .650-.700 with plus defense and baserunning, which has value as a platoon or reserve player (especially if you can get Cruz out of LF).

What *this year* is giving you optimism for Lough to turn things around? I don't see much (if anything) to make me hopeful.

[LookitsPuck]

Some problems I see that make me pretty pessimistic about David Lough going forward this year:

LD: 13.8%, FB: 51.7%

That is pretty alarming.

ISO: .051

BABIP: .219

Those numbers don't bode well, either.

His K rate is also high this year (17.2%).

None of those are particularly good at all for him. A lot of popups, very low line drives, no power, missing a lot of pitches.

[Tx Oriole]

The Orioles need to look outside the organization for a LF. There are no good internal options IMO.

Who would you suggest? You have any ideas?

[Aglets]

That may not be a bad idea, but just know that Week's OBP is likely going to be much closer to his MLB number (.319) than his AAA line (.394). When you have a AAA ISO of .100 that's pretty dependent on triples you're going to see big declines in your walk rate.

The OBP bump from Schoop to Weeks would be nice, but I also think Weeks is a pretty poor fielder.

Back of the envelope calculations......commence!

According to baseball reference, Weeks's defense at 2B over the course of the season will cost a team something like 9 runs over a replacement fielder.

For Schoop, admittedly the sample size is much smaller, but it puts that number at +2 above a replacement fielder. So that's an 11 run swing.

I'd like to think that Week's OBP skills could make more than an 11 run difference over the course of a season, but I guess it's not as clear cut a choice as I first thought.

[DrungoHazewood]

What *this year* is giving you optimism for Lough to turn things around? I don't see much (if anything) to make me hopeful.

I just don't put much of any weight to a couple months and less than 100 PAs.

[LookitsPuck]

I just don't put much of any weight to a couple months and <100 PAs.

Okay, I can somewhat respect that. But at what point is going w/ Lough too long considering he's out of options and there are alternatives in the minors?