Tommy Hunter AGAIN!

[CA-ORIOLE]

Looking at PitchFx, batting averages against his pitch types:

4 seamer: .391 (thrown 104 times, 9 hits in 27 plate appearances)

2 seamer: .600 (thrown 30 times, 3 hits in 5 plate appearances)

Cutter: .375 (thrown 28 times, 3 hits in 8 plate appearances)

The only pitch not getting clobbered is his curveball. He's thrown it 58 times, and there's been only 1 hit in 14 plate appearances.

FWIW, last year his fastball was very good (hitters only hit 206 off of it), but what's concerning about this year versus last year? Hunter hasn't thrown a single slider. Not one. He threw a slider 107 times last year..33 plate appearances and only 4 hits.

Tally together his cutter, 2 seamer, and 4 seamer, and he's thrown 162 fastballs and 58 curveballs. This isn't including tonight (I don't think). So, 3 out of 4 times he's throwing a fastball. Hitters are sitting on it. He needs to mix things up more.

I don't believe Tommy really has a slider. His slider is his cutter. At times, he took enough off of it and/or had enough movement on it in previous years (i.e last year) that it fooled pitch fx into thinking it was a slider, and it was basically a defacto slider. But, you bring up a good point (and I agree) that he's not using that pitch this year like he did last year, and he clearly isn't having the same success against RHB's that he enjoyed last year.

There appears to be a pretty clear strategy to have him focus more on the curveball as his breaking pitch. For example, this year he has 27% curveballs against RHB's as compared to only 15% last year. Its a tough balance, because on the one hand, his curveball has been much sharper with more depth and consistency this year. On the other hand, there's not the same deception he had mixing in the cuttter (i.e defacto slider) and fastball that he had last year

The issues with LHB's is quite a bit different imo. There clearly seems to be a strategy to pitch more to the outside corner and reduce the "damage" from last year. Also, less cutters in. I think Norris is doing basically the same thing, sequencing a lot of 4 seamers and 2 seamers off the outside corner. Seems to be limiting the HR's for Tommy but a lot of hard hit balls the other way.

[birdcrazy]

His cutter is where he gets killed. When he hangs it, it is basically a 91 mph fastball up in the zone. It is made worse because his 4 seam already has bats speed up. Maybe I am being na?ve, but one would think that if you did nothing but throw 95-99 fastballs in the bottom half of the zone, you would get 3 outs before giving up one or two runs most of the time.

[VeveJones007]

His performance so far has been troubling, but I believe he will bounce back. Luckily, he hasn't cost the O's a game yet.

[BobbyWoontz]

It's an amazing stat...no 1-2-3 innings, but also 11/12 saves converted, and no losses.

Actually, Hunter has had a 1-2-3 inning this year, and it was the 9th inning in a non-save situation, but it didn't last long, as he gave up a double in the 10th of a 3-2 O's win on April 26th versus Kansas City.

[mdbdotcom]

Maybe he should just pitch from the stretch.

[Ruzious]

While people whine that he's not doing well, he has more saves and fewer blown saves than Greg Kimbrel - who is the best in the business.

[Frobby]

While people whine that he's not doing well, he has more saves and fewer blown saves than Greg Kimbrel - who is the best in the business.

I don't think anyone is whining about the end results so far. We just don't think he'll continue to get end results like that if he continues to allow so many baserunners, especially allowing the leadoff hitter to get on almost half the time. Opposing batters have an .863 OPS against him -- that can't continue if Hunter wants to continue having good outcomes.

[Can_of_corn]

While people whine that he's not doing well, he has more saves and fewer blown saves than Greg Kimbrel - who is the best in the business.

But, saves are stupid.

(also Kimbrel has been hurt)

[PA724_Oriole]

Ppl need to understand this is his first year as a closer when he was never a closer before.

Its different pitching in the ninth with a small lead. Guys go up in the ninth looking to get on base anyway they can. It's alot tougher to get guys out in the ninth.

So what if he gives up a base runner or a run. That's why you can get a save while being up three runs because if it.was only one.or two runs which earned you a save, even the great closers would only manage 30 a year.

Hunter is geting the job done and he is still learning. I doubt anyone.on this roster would be successful than Hunter has been so far.

[The Wedge]

He'll actually have to start blowing a few saves before I really get up in arms. I'm more of a results person. I hate the nailbiting sometimes, but its the results I care about, really.

Something's gotta give with him and putting men on base. Walks and strikeouts seem to be in line and seems to have good command over all his pitches. I think it goes the other way and some of those hit balls stop falling in and he goes through a dominate stretch (assuming he isn't overused).

DOMINANT!

[weams]

He'll actually have to start blowing a few saves before I really get up in arms. I'm more of a results person. I hate the nailbiting sometimes, but its the results I care about, really.

I agree. He has been positively Flat. Breezy.

[Can_of_corn]

Ppl need to understand this is his first year as a closer when he was never a closer before.

Its different pitching in the ninth with a small lead. Guys go up in the ninth looking to get on base anyway they can. It's alot tougher to get guys out in the ninth.

So what if he gives up a base runner or a run. That's why you can get a save while being up three runs because if it.was only one.or two runs which earned you a save, even the great closers would only manage 30 a year.

Hunter is geting the job done and he is still learning. I doubt anyone.on this roster would be successful than Hunter has been so far.

What a load of nonsense.

Every season guys assume the closer role. Last year the four teams in the LCS were all using different closers then who they started the year with.

Guys are always trying to get on base however they can. You think they come up to bat in the eight down by a run and half ass it? However much stress the closer is under the batters are under the same stress.

The save rule was just one guy's opinion. I have not read any accounts of a great deal of thought going into the stat.

What difference does it make if 30 saves instead of 50 is the arbitrary designation of a great season?

Of course no one would be more successful then Hunter, he has lucksacked his way into a 91% save rate. Even though Britton is pitching much better then Hunter it is pretty unlikely that he would have accumulated more saves.

[Frobby]

Ppl need to understand this is his first year as a closer when he was never a closer before.

Its different pitching in the ninth with a small lead. Guys go up in the ninth looking to get on base anyway they can. It's alot tougher to get guys out in the ninth.

So what if he gives up a base runner or a run. That's why you can get a save while being up three runs because if it.was only one.or two runs which earned you a save, even the great closers would only manage 30 a year.

Hunter is geting the job done and he is still learning. I doubt anyone.on this roster would be successful than Hunter has been so far.

There's no truth to the proposition that hitters are tougher in the ninth. Last hitter, hitters in the AL hit .235/.305/.360 in the 9th, the worst of any inning of the game. Granted, a lot of those at bats were against the other team's closer. But I reject the idea that the hitters are tougher in the 9th. About the only difference is that a pitcher may see more pinch hitters then.

I just don't think Hunter is that good a pitcher. I think either Britton or O'Day would be a better closer. But I don't care that much, because allowing runs in the 7th or 8th can lose a game just as easily as allowing runs in the 9th.

[weams]

What a load of nonsense.

Every season guys assume the closer role. Last year the four teams in the LCS were all using different closers then who they started the year with.

Guys are always trying to get on base however they can. You think they come up to bat in the eight down by a run and half ass it? However much stress the closer is under the batters are under the same stress.

The save rule was just one guy's opinion. I have not read any accounts of a great deal of thought going into the stat.

What difference does it make if 30 saves instead of 50 is the arbitrary designation of a great season?

Of course no one would be more successful then Hunter, he has lucksacked his way into a 91% save rate. Even though Britton is pitching much better then Hunter it is pretty unlikely that he would have accumulated more saves.

A very thoughtful post. Thank you for being the voice.

[The Wedge]

Speaking of "results person," I feel if Buck had said THAT instead of the whole caring about the win rule line, I wonder if people would give him less guff about going with a traditional closer role? He sends out the person he expects will get the result he wants. Like, you know, 99% of managers.