Sherzer or Lester idea

[Mayor McCheese]

You really think DD will just dump Jimenez?

They are shopping him now which may mean they really want Gonzo in the rotation not Jinenez heading into 2015. If we are upgrading at starting pitching there would be no need for a $13MM mop-up guy.

Theres only 2 ways to get rid/dump Jimenez:

1) Eat some salary

2) Take on another bad contract.

I see option 1 happening over option 2.

[weams]

You really think DD will just dump Jimenez?

I know he won't.

[weams]

They are shopping him now which may mean they really want Gonzo in the rotation not Jinenez heading into 2015. If we are upgrading at starting pitching there would be no need for a $13MM mop-up guy.

Theres only 2 ways to get rid/dump Jimenez:

1) Eat some salary

2) Take on another bad contract.

I see option 1 happening over option 2.

They have shopped Gonzalez. And Norris, and Ubaldo. They have not shopped Gausman, though they know what he brings back. No action on Chen or Tillman. So what would be so bad about selling one of the the three for the best return and finding a number six guy off the pile?

[clapdiddy]

So we should sign an ace for 6 yrs / 120 million dollars and hope:

a. That we make the playoffs

b. That he pitches like the 2014 Bumgarner

c. That he doesn't pitch like the 1/2 dozen aces who pitched poorly as their teams were eliminated in the wildcard or ALDS series.

Sure that's a plan

That's not what I'm saying. You made a point that an ace doesn't necessarily mean a championship. I made a point that WITHOUT their ace, San Francisco probably is not a World Champion.

I think this team could afford an ace. I think that ace will help get them to the playoffs. After that, the playoffs are a crapshoot.

[webbrick2010]

That's not what I'm saying. You made a point that an ace doesn't necessarily mean a championship. I made a point that WITHOUT their ace, San Francisco probably is not a World Champion.

I think this team could afford an ace. I think that ace will help get them to the playoffs. After that, the playoffs are a crapshoot.

It's convenient to your argument to call Bumgarner their ace when in fact their ace was:

Matt Cain : 20.833 Million

Tim Lincecum : 17.000 Million

Tim Hudson : 11.000 Million

Ryan Vogelson : 5.000 Million

and then Bumgarner at 3.950 million

Bumgarner was their ace after the fact

It would be like after Gausman carries the O's to the 2015 World Series that he was our ace, when he only rose to that title after the season.

[VeveJones007]

They have shopped Gonzalez. And Norris, and Ubaldo. They have not shopped Gausman, though they know what he brings back. No action on Chen or Tillman. So what would be so bad about selling one of the the three for the best return and finding a number six guy off the pile?

This was my conclusion when I looked at the payroll situation. I expect Norris to be traded so that they can allocate that money toward the OF.

[weams]

This is not a correct sentence either.

You are absolutely correct. I just feel when you advocate for someone, you should know who they are.

[VeveJones007]

You are absolutely correct. I just feel when you advocate for someone, you should know who they are.

And trade Weiters to get some extra cash to sign Szcherczezrrr!

[tntoriole]

That's not my definition of an ace. What is your definition of an ace? Because almost all the World Series teams in the past 25 years have had one. The Orioles last year did not have one. And no, not every team has an ace. Every team has a #1 starter, but a true ace should be something else entirely.

For me, and ace is a dominant pitcher who is going to take the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs, and in Game 1 of every postseason series as long as their days of rest work out for it. "Dominant" is the key word for purposes of the discussion we're having. To use metrics the casual fan is familiar with, an ace is a pitcher that pitches to a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.15 WHIP, and who pitches 175-200+ innings in the regular season. An ace tends to have a strikeout rate of at least 7.5 per 9 innings. Although the more dominant a pitcher is in ERA and WHIP, the less necessary it is for them to have a high K-rate. Aces tend to make the All-Star team in the year that they are considered to be a true ace.

Either way, if Scherzer and Lester are the kind of pitchers you consider to be aces (Shields is not an ace), then almost every World Series-winning team over the past 25 years has had one. I don't consider Chris Tillman to be a true ace, and I don't think he will ever be one. Gausman has the potential to be an ace in the future.

This thread is about Scherzer and Lester, but you claimed that a team doesn't need an ace to win a World Series. While I agree it's possible to win one without an ace, I believe you need one if you want to have a much better shot.

So would you mind defining what you consider to be an ace so that we can have a clearer discussion? If you don't want to, no worries. But you will have failed in convincing me that the Orioles don't need to acquire one, or that they don't need Gausman or Bundy turn into one. Unless you have a very strange definition of an ace, you will find that about 20 out of the past 25 World Series champions have had one. I just think you're overlooking or misremembering the pitching staffs on those teams.

A Cy Young award is a rough measure in defining an ace. Short of looking in detail at all the staffs over the last twenty five years and how they might or might not fit a convoluted definition of ace, but in the last twenty years (since 1995) World Series champions in only two of those years have had a pitcher who won the Cy Young that season on their staff. Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks and Greg Maddux with the 1995 Braves. So, another way of saying it is that 18 of the last 20 World Series champions have NOT had the Cy Young Award winner on their team. I continue to believe that while most all World Series champions will have good pitching with multiple good pitchers (or they would not have won the pennant) but that teams do not need a prototypical ace to win the championship. And I certainly do not believe that it is necessary for the Orioles to sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester to win the World Series in 2015.

[weams]

A Cy Young award is a rough measure in defining an ace. Short of looking in detail at all the staffs over the last twenty five years and how they might or might not fit a convoluted definition of ace. In the last twenty years (since 1995) World Series champions in only two of those years have had a Cy Young Award winner on their staff. Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks and Greg Maddux with the 1995 Braves. So, another way of saying it is that 18 of the last 20 World Series champions have NOT had the Cy Young Award winner on their team. I continue to believe that while most all World Series champions will have good pitching with multiple good pitchers (or they would not have won the pennant) but that teams do not need a prototypical ace to win the championship. And I certainly do not believe that it is necessary for the Orioles to sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester to win the World Series in 2015.

Top Ten strikeouts, Innings pitched, Era.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/order/false

[El Gordo]

200 IP. 200 K's per.

[tntoriole]

Top Ten strikeouts, Innings pitched, Era.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/order/false

And KC had number 10 in that list with Ventura and San Francisco's Baumgarner was 14th. So where does the ace definition apply? I think to win a pennant (from pitching standpoint) you need five starting pitchers who contribute at a good level, a good bullpen, an excellent closer. And then, once you are in the playoffs, one or more of those starters are particularly hot at that point in time. (see Clayton Kershaw- lights out all year, but not during the playoff weeks).

[Tryptamine]

So we should sign an ace for 6 yrs / 120 million dollars and hope:

a. That we make the playoffs

b. That he pitches like the 2014 Bumgarner

c. That he doesn't pitch like the 1/2 dozen aces who pitched poorly as their teams were eliminated in the wildcard or ALDS series.

Sure that's a plan

I'd be willing to bet Lester lands a deal much closer to 6/150 if not slightly exceeding it.

[Brooks The Great]

A Cy Young award is a rough measure in defining an ace. Short of looking in detail at all the staffs over the last twenty five years and how they might or might not fit a convoluted definition of ace, but in the last twenty years (since 1995) World Series champions in only two of those years have had a pitcher who won the Cy Young that season on their staff. Randy Johnson with the 2001 Diamondbacks and Greg Maddux with the 1995 Braves. So, another way of saying it is that 18 of the last 20 World Series champions have NOT had the Cy Young Award winner on their team. I continue to believe that while most all World Series champions will have good pitching with multiple good pitchers (or they would not have won the pennant) but that teams do not need a prototypical ace to win the championship. And I certainly do not believe that it is necessary for the Orioles to sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester to win the World Series in 2015.

No wonder we disagree on the definition of an ace. Your definition of an ace is ridiculous.

So you only think there are two aces in the entirety of major league baseball every year? Ok.

Not worth it to debate this with you. We'll agree to disagree. Thanks anyway for your replies.

[Brooks The Great]

There are many ways to skin a cat in a SSS.

Would I like to have an ace? Yes.

Would I like to have a shutdown 7-9 like the Royals had this year? Yes.

Would I like to have guys play over their head in a SSS relative to their career and regular season? Yes.

Let's just focus on regularly getting to the playoffs and wait for the dice to come up 7 or 11. Giving a single player $150M+ would inhibit that possibility for the Orioles. If the O's get an ace, it will be because they developed him (or traded expendable assets for a short-term option like they tried with Lester).

I don't disagree with that. Our best chance to have an ace is for Gausman and/or Bundy to develop into one.

But as you alluded to, I wouldn't be opposed to trading for an established ace (who's preferably not too much older than 30). I know that's easier said than done, but it's possible if someone like Bundy or Harvey is included in a trade package (and I know there are several posters who would be opposed to trading them for almost any older pitcher with a sizable contract).

I was merely making a point that most championship teams have at least one ace on them, in addition to other good starters. The Orioles did not have an ace last season, and it hurt them. But it's also true that if Tillman and Norris had pitched a little bit better, which they were certainly capable of, we could have advanced. Gonzalez and Chen both pitched well, as they had during a majority of the regular season.

I just think Gausman becoming one, or adding another ace from outside the organization - however that may be - would increase our chances of advancing to the World Series and winning it. Again, much easier said than done.