Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey - What Would it Take?

[ArtVanDelay]

You wouldn't trade Gausman for Springer? That's just crazy talk.

I'll take the possible TOR starter over the guy who will strike out 200times a year and play poor defense.

[El Gordo]

Pitching Pitching Pitching. Think TB. Don't trade any of it.

[33rdst]

Pitching Pitching Pitching. Think TB. Don't trade any of it.

This. The orioles have worked for years to get to this point. They are on the cusp of establishing a pipeline to the majors for their minor league pitching talent. Why dismantle it now for a couple of wins when your already a playoff contender?

[Tx Oriole]

With the Tampa Bay Rays supposedly shopping Will Myers it got me thinking. The overwhelming sentiment in most of the Hangout posts seems to be that Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, and Hunter Harvey all untouchable. So I ask you this; what/who would it take to pry one of them away? Would you part with Gausman for a 24 year stud prospect who is under control through 2019?

That's a tough question for me. Not sure I would want them to. Prospect is not

proven. Good question but hard.

[DrungoHazewood]

Recent article on the value of a prospect in dollars here. I think it is largely in agreement with my prior back-of-the-napkin estimates I'd done in other threads on Bundy's value. Basically, a top 10 pitching prospect can be expected (on average) to produce $40M in surplus value while under team control. And an 11-50 ranked pitcher is about $20M. And a 50-100 is maybe $10M. So... if our guys are healthy and still ranked about where they have been you can expect to get in the neighborhood of $80M in surplus value out of the three, maybe broken down to $40M for Gausman, $25M for Bundy, $15M for Harvey. And you can juggle those names around. depending on your own valuations maybe you think it's Bundy 40, Harvey 25, Gausman 15... or maybe something like $30M/25/25. In any case, you need to get back that kind of value to trade them.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'd be willing to trade one for somebody with team control for a while, who looks like at the very least he will be a 1.5 WAR to 2 WAR player going forward, with the potential to be more. Somebody like Nick Franklin who the Rays acquired. A Jarred Cosart type. Dallas Keuchel before he blew up this past year and would cost even more.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Yes. Still have a chance to re-sign him, and I really don't think Bundy will become much of anything as a Major League starter.

Why would you want this team to pay Upton market value?

[AdamK]

Recent article on the value of a prospect in dollars here. I think it is largely in agreement with my prior back-of-the-napkin estimates I'd done in other threads on Bundy's value. Basically, a top 10 pitching prospect can be expected (on average) to produce $40M in surplus value while under team control. And an 11-50 ranked pitcher is about $20M. And a 50-100 is maybe $10M. So... if our guys are healthy and still ranked about where they have been you can expect to get in the neighborhood of $80M in surplus value out of the three, maybe broken down to $40M for Gausman, $25M for Bundy, $15M for Harvey. And you can juggle those names around. depending on your own valuations maybe you think it's Bundy 40, Harvey 25, Gausman 15... or maybe something like $30M/25/25. In any case, you need to get back that kind of value to trade them.

Let's make this a sticky.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Because he's good and deserves it. He's just entering his prime years.

What % of the O's payroll do you have his prime years salary accounting for? Based on our current payroll ballpark estimates?

[malkusm]

No, but I would for an AL Rookie of the year who I would have control of for a long time.

The ROY thing overvalues Myers. David Lough had more WAR as a rookie in Myers' class than Myers did.

[ArtVanDelay]

Because he's good and deserves it. He's just entering his prime years.

I'd sign him to something like 5/75 but nothing more. Obviously he wouldn't accept but that's basically what he's worth. He's terrible defensively. Someone will give him 20-25 million a year and it will be a terrible deal.

[TXOriole]

Just out of curiosity...how many players have to earn 20+ a year before they stop being called terrible deals and start being referred to as the cost of doing business with top talent in MLB?

[DrungoHazewood]

The ROY thing overvalues Myers. David Lough had more WAR as a rookie in Myers' class than Myers did.

Sort of. Myers and Lough both logged 2.4 fWAR. But Myers was three years younger and hadn't repeated AAA three times. Myers was also a top-50 prospect by numerous sources in multiple years.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just out of curiosity...how many players have to earn 20+ a year before they stop being called terrible deals and start being referred to as the cost of doing business with top talent in MLB?

When they start breaking even or providing surplus value compared to other free agents? At what point do MLB teams just refuse to hand out contracts that they know are going to be millstones before the ink is dry? It's not "the cost of doing business with top talent" when there are other options, other ways to acquire enough talent to win.

[Can_of_corn]

Just out of curiosity...how many players have to earn 20+ a year before they stop being called terrible deals and start being referred to as the cost of doing business with top talent in MLB?

It depends on the player and what constitutes "top talent". Kershaw signed for 7/215 and folks didn't say much, Trout signed for 6/144 and folks called it a bargain. If the O's sign Flaherty to a 10/200 contract folks will call it a terrible deal.