Biggio, Smoltz, Martinez, Johnson - HOF

[25 Nuggets]

What do they do? They turn. Yep, the very same people that were completely on their knees for these guys are all of a sudden judge, jury and executioner. I would absolutely love to know the breakdown of these writers who gave Bonds and Sosa MVP votes, who gave Clemens Cy Young votes, who did all they could to add to the legacy of these players....and then not vote for them for the HoF because, well, they weren't exactly clean.

It's human behavior, sadly. People like to think they aren't capable of being Pontius Pilates but most of us are when the chips are down. That said I blame the Major League executives even more than the writers, and also that to blast the entire BBWAA is painting with too broad a stroke.

Also I thought we weren't cursing on this board.

[DrungoHazewood]

Wagner might not get the 5% to stay on the ballot.

Rivera is a lock due to the 42 saves and 141 IP in the postseason.

Rivera is a lock due to the fact he's the best modern reliever, hands-down. His career value is roughly double that of Hoffman or Wagner. Amid all the PED stuff and the expansion timebomb and everything else there's not a whole lot of focus on relievers, but I still have a really hard time giving support to a candidate with 20 or 25 fWAR. Yes, leverage is great and all that, but outside of Rivera there aren't any modern relievers you can even squint and fudge into the Jim Rice value tier. At some point the Hall should come to some kind of consensus, before they let in a bunch of guys who're (arguably) among the worst selections in Cooperstown. No exaggeration, Nick Markakis has about the same career fWAR as Hoffman and Wagner. In Wagner's entire career he faced 3600 batters, which is about half the number of PAs of a short-career guy like Kirby Puckett (and he has defense on top of that). Maybe a lot of people don't believe the fWAR part, but I'd like to hear a convincing counter-argument.

[weams]

Will they again they blow the minds of the MLB Network analysts and pick another 4 in 2016, and if so, who will be elected? Two of the four would be Jr. Griffey and Piazza. The all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman should get a lot of support considering Dennis Eckersley was a first ballot selection in 2004. Schilling and Mussina won't make that big of a leap. Trammel and McGwire will drop off the ballot. Raines will be in his next to last year of eligibility so there may be a push to get him elected. Bagwell, 21st all time in career OPS, should already be in the Hall, but he's stuck in the 50s.

My guess is they go with only two or three (Hoffman) next year kicking the can down the road for the rest in 2017 with Pudge Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero the real first-time standouts. Mussina and Schilling will be in the 4th and 5th years respectively that year. 2018 will include Larry Wayne "Chipper" Jones and Jim Thome.

Raines can't make it these next two years. He'll have to hope for a committee miracle. Not enough of the writers from during the cocaine trials are dead and it is too much ground to make up in two votes.

[Frobby]

Wagner might not get the 5% to stay on the ballot.

Rivera is a lock due to the 42 saves and 141 IP in the postseason.

I don't want a lot of relievers in the Hall. They're mostly failed starters who found another niche. Rivera's an exception but I'm in no hurry to see guys like Hoffman in the HoF.

[weams]

Also I thought we weren't cursing on this board.

I missed it if they were there. We don't use obscenities here. There are family folk and children present.

[Frobby]

These are the same writers that were bloviating at length and completely on their knees for the exploits of McGwire, Bonds, Sosa and Clemens in the 90's and early 00's. This is the same group of two faced idiots that were dishing out MVP votes for these players and talking about how great they were and how lucky we were to be seeing them. "Hey little Johnny! When you're watching Bonds, this is like watching Babe Ruth!" "Hey Timmy, watching a Roger Clemens start is like watching Walter Johnson!"

And there was money to be made, everyone at that time had their hands in the pot. MLB, the teams, the writers, everyone. EVERYONE profited off that entire era either from a direct financial perspective or gaining notoriety for their coverage of McGwire/Sosa, Bonds or Clemens. And everyone turned a blind eye to the issue, the money was flying in! Home runs were leaving the park at an astonishing rate! Baseball had made an awesome recovery from the '94 strike and was THRIVING. I'm firmly convinced that EVERYONE knew that PED's were going on and that everyone was having such a good time that no one wanted to blow a whistle. Why should have anyone wanted to ruin that great '98 chase? Remember how that one reporter who asked what that bottle was in McGwires locker got absolutely CRUCIFIED?

I was doing some research to test the idea that the homer-happy days had a material impact on fan interest, and what I found supports you. These are median attendance figures:

1993 2.416 mm (pre-strike)

1996 1.976 mm (post-strike)

1997 2.089 mm

1998 2.445 mm (McGwire/Sosa HR race)

1999 2.446 mm

2000 2.577 mm

2001 2.625 mm

2002 2.352 mm

2003 2.251 mm

2004 2.330 mm

2005 2.525 mm

2006 2.481 mm

2007 2.684 mm

2008 2.509 mm

2009 2.374 mm

2010 2.461 mm

2011 2.353 mm

2012 2.371 mm

2013 2.531 mm

2014 2.442 mm

Did everyone know what was going on, and to what extent? I don't know. I suspected Sosa more than McGwire, because he had never been that much of a HR hitting and suddenly started popping out 60+ a season, whereas McGwire had always shown a lot of power when he was healthy. But I can't say I had anything more than suspicions at the time, not a strong belief that it was happening.

[TonySoprano]

I don't want a lot of relievers in the Hall. They're mostly failed starters who found another niche. Rivera's an exception but I'm in no hurry to see guys like Hoffman in the HoF.

That is the definition of Eckersley, who went first ballot. Do you consider him a HOF'er?

[Frobby]

That is the definition of Eckersley, who went first ballot. Do you consider him a HOF'er?

I wouldn't call Eckersley a failed starter. He was 149-130 with a 3.71 ERA as a starter before he converted to the bullpen. Let's just say he wasn't getting into the HoF as a starting pitcher. However, I think the combo of 149 wins as a starter (2 all-star appearances, 2 years getting Cy Young votes and a 20-win season), when added to his 390 saves (388 at age 32 or older) probably is sufficient reason to put him in. Honestly, though, it isn't a no-brainer for me.

Thinking about this, I looked at a couple of other relievers, Bruce Sutter (300 saves, in the HoF) and Lee Smith (478 saves, not in the HoF). Comparing the three, and thinking about current relievers, really reminded me how the reliever roles have changed through the years. Sutter (1976-88) averaged 1.57 innings per appearance, and his save rate was only 75%. Smith (1980-97) averaged 1.23 IP/G and saved 82%. Eckersley (1988-98 as a full time closer) averaged 1.05 IP/G and saved 85% -- pretty much the save rate that had Oriole fans ready to lynch Jim Johnson in 2013.

[DrungoHazewood]

That is the definition of Eckersley, who went first ballot. Do you consider him a HOF'er?

When I think of failed starter turned reliever I think of someone who moved to the pen in the minors or after a brief stint in the majors. Eckersley was a very good starter for more than a decade. He had about 75% of his career innings as a starter, and (at least by fWAR) about 2/3rds of his career value as a starter.

He's a weird case. I don't think many people thought of him as a HOFer as a starter, and he only had 6-7 really good years out of the pen. Peak as a reliever was pretty high, peak as a starter was not that high (max fWAR of 4.9).

But when you add it all up he has fairly impressive career value. And maybe he gets extra credit for being LaRussa's first one-inning, save-only guy. Or not.

I think he's a unique case, and a gray area. But he's in, so it's kind of moot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Eckersley (1988-98 as a full time closer) averaged 1.05 IP/G and saved 85% -- pretty much the save rate that had Oriole fans ready to lynch Jim Johnson in 2013.

Eck really only had six years as a top shelf closer, out of 12 years as a reliever. From 1993-98 his ERA was over 3.90 four times in six seasons.

[Can_of_corn]

Raines can't make it these next two years. He'll have to hope for a committee miracle. Not enough of the writers from during the cocaine trials are dead and it is too much ground to make up in two votes.

Why do you keep pushing the cocaine narrative?

Honestly I don't think it is a big factor in not voting for him.

Rickey Henderson is the reason folks are not voting for Raines.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why do you keep pushing the cocaine narrative?

Honestly I don't think it is a big factor in not voting for him.

Rickey Henderson is the reason folks are not voting for Raines.

I think it has to be a combination of things. I thought the old crusty writers would love a guy who hit .300+ with 70 steals and wasn't one of those gosh darned one-dimensional sluggers. Except that there are probably a clique of old guys who love one-dimensional sluggers and think walks and runs have nothing on homers and RBIs. Playing through his peak in Montreal can't have helped. The Rickey comp, which almost everyone would fail, probably shaves some votes. And he might lose a few votes to the folks who didn't pay any attention until he got to NY at 37 as a part-timer.

[TonySoprano]

I hear guys like Rosenthal complaining about needing the Hall to push back to 12 votes on a ballot. Well, guess what? Biggio and Piazza were on the ballot in 2013 and the BBWAA elected.......no one, even with 15 per ballot. If those two are HOF'ers in 2015 and maybe 2016 why not back then? One Philadelphia writer boycotted the process. Like the expression goes, point a finger and you have 4 pointed back at you. The writers need to accept some of the blame for the supposed dilemma they claim to be in.

[Can_of_corn]

I hear guys like Rosenthal complaining about needing the Hall to push back to 12 votes on a ballot. Well, guess what? Biggio and Piazza were on the ballot in 2013 and the BBWAA elected.......no one, even with 15 per ballot. If those two are HOF'ers in 2015 and maybe 2016 why not back then? One Philadelphia writer boycotted the process. Like the expression goes, point a finger and you have 4 pointed back at you. The writers need to accept some of the blame for the supposed dilemma they claim to be in.

I think by putting seven in over the last two years the backlog should be cleared up in the next couple of ballots. Only one sure thing next season so there is no reason they can't put in a couple guys that have been waiting. By the 2018 ballot things should be cleared up to a large extent.

[srock]

I can never let Mussina of the hook for signing with the yankees.

But Glavine and Smoltz going into the HOF on the 1st ballot while Mussina gets 25% of the vote underlines the problems with the BBWAA election system. Not that they aren't viable HOF'ers, but there is no baseball argument as to why they are superior to Mussina. Maybe the writes wildly overweight post season appearances and performance? Or the mass of NY writers just don't like Mussina and blame him for the lack of WS rings during his tenure. They surely couldn't blame stupid jeter, so lets lay it all on the former Oriole.

FUBAR.