Hardball Times: Tommy John

[weams]

Read the Arm, at least the free preview part.

Own it.

[Frobby]

A work colleague of mine has a nephew who pitched A/AA for the Cardinals last summer at age 24, and was slated to return to AA this year. He just found out today that he has torn elbow ligaments and needs TJ surgery. Now he's faced with the tough choice of having the surgery, spending a year in rehab and then hoping he can get his career back on track and eventually make it to the majors, or give up his dream now, forget surgery and get on with the next phase of his life. Healthy, being generous I would have said he had maybe a 25% chance to make the majors by the end of 2017, though not necessarily a good bet to have a long major league career (his fastball hovers around 89-90). Now both his timetable and his odds of success are longer. I feel bad for the young man, but realistically, the prudent move is probably to call it quits.

[weams]

A work colleague of mine has a nephew who pitched A/AA for the Cardinals last summer at age 24, and was slated to return to AA this year. He just found out today that he has torn elbow ligaments and needs TJ surgery. Now he's faced with the tough choice of having the surgery, spending a year in rehab and then hoping he can get his career back on track and eventually make it to the majors, or give up his dream now, forget surgery and get on with the next phase of his life. Healthy, being generous I would have said he had maybe a 25% chance to make the majors by the end of 2017, though not necessarily a good bet to have a long major league career (his fastball hovers around 89-90). Now both his timetable and his odds of success are longer. I feel bad for the young man, but realistically, the prudent move is probably to call it quits.

Wouldn't he need the surgery if he were to remain active but not a professional player?

[Larry18]

A work colleague of mine has a nephew who pitched A/AA for the Cardinals last summer at age 24, and was slated to return to AA this year. He just found out today that he has torn elbow ligaments and needs TJ surgery. Now he's faced with the tough choice of having the surgery, spending a year in rehab and then hoping he can get his career back on track and eventually make it to the majors, or give up his dream now, forget surgery and get on with the next phase of his life. Healthy, being generous I would have said he had maybe a 25% chance to make the majors by the end of 2017, though not necessarily a good bet to have a long major league career (his fastball hovers around 89-90). Now both his timetable and his odds of success are longer. I feel bad for the young man, but realistically, the prudent move is probably to call it quits.

Are the Cardinals going to sent him to Andrews or Kerlan-Jobe or would it be done in house?

[DrungoHazewood]

Kidding me? Get the surgey and shoot for the dream, obviously. He's only 24, he has plenty of time for the next phase. I'm 32 and I have no idea what phase I'm supposed to be in. You do the surgery 100% of the time if you have even a miniscule chance of getting to the big leagues.

Hell, he might even find an extra mile per hour or two post surgery, you never know.

I guess it depends on circumstances. Does he have a good degree, or most of the way there? Or does he just have high school and no real ideas outside of baseball? If the kid has a solid career path once baseball ends maybe a 5% chance at the majors in 2, 3, 4 years isn't a great bet. Some folks don't want to be 32 with absolutely no idea what they want to be when they grow up. But most people would probably keep playing baseball until they found themselves in a Motel 6 in Santa Fe at 34, with a bunch of 22-year-old teammates, making $1200 a month.

[weams]

I guess it is settled. Get the Surgery, Do the rehab, Get the degree.

[Can_of_corn]

Wouldn't he need the surgery if he were to remain active but not a professional player?

If you were as far as long as I am you would know the answer.

(TJ is only needed if you want to throw a baseball (or a javelin)).

[DrungoHazewood]

Lol, thanks. For the record, I have a great life. I'm just saying, "phases of life" is basically BS. The kid is 24, he's gonna be fine. Freaking play ball, dude. Yeah, at a certain point you hang it up. That's not that point for this kid, IMO, albeit without really knowing the guy at all.

I didn't mean any offense, that happens a lot. But if you're looking ahead as an injured 24-year-old ballplayer and thinking "wow, there's a 90-95% chance I'm going to be at age 32 with no savings, no real resume besides baseball player, and no job path maybe I need to go another direction."

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Top <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Marlins?src=hash">#Marlins</a> prospect Tyler Kolek is expected to be out for a year after Tommy John surgery. <a href="https://t.co/WMuVA5Pg9r">https://t.co/WMuVA5Pg9r</a> <a href="https://t.co/b358KwL4xm">pic.twitter.com/b358KwL4xm</a></p>— MiLB.com (@MiLB) <a href="

">April 7, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/Yankees">@Yankees</a> 24-year-old RHP Nick Rumbelow reportedly set to undergo Tommy John surgery: <a href="https://t.co/Y7BqI0h1Ur">https://t.co/Y7BqI0h1Ur</a> <a href="https://t.co/Sg7GH7NNfT">pic.twitter.com/Sg7GH7NNfT</a></p>— YES Network (@YESNetwork) <a href="

">April 11, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ICYMI earlier today, the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Athletics?src=hash">#Athletics</a> announced that Felix Doubront will undergo Tommy John surgery <a href="https://t.co/7PZa0Pzigz">https://t.co/7PZa0Pzigz</a></p>— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) <a href="

">April 12, 2016</a></blockquote>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Marco Gonzales, one of the top pitching prospects for the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash">#STLCards</a>, will undergo Tommy John surgery.</p>— Max Wildstein (@MaxWildstein) <a href="

">April 13, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Frobby]

A work colleague of mine has a nephew who pitched A/AA for the Cardinals last summer at age 24, and was slated to return to AA this year. He just found out today that he has torn elbow ligaments and needs TJ surgery. Now he's faced with the tough choice of having the surgery, spending a year in rehab and then hoping he can get his career back on track and eventually make it to the majors, or give up his dream now, forget surgery and get on with the next phase of his life. Healthy, being generous I would have said he had maybe a 25% chance to make the majors by the end of 2017, though not necessarily a good bet to have a long major league career (his fastball hovers around 89-90). Now both his timetable and his odds of success are longer. I feel bad for the young man, but realistically, the prudent move is probably to call it quits.

Kidding me? Get the surgey and shoot for the dream, obviously. He's only 24, he has plenty of time for the next phase. I'm 32 and I have no idea what phase I'm supposed to be in. You do the surgery 100% of the time if you have even a miniscule chance of getting to the big leagues.

Hell, he might even find an extra mile per hour or two post surgery, you never know.

Are the Cardinals going to sent him to Andrews or Kerlan-Jobe or would it be done in house?

He chose the surgery and it will be done by Dr. Andrews next week. By the way, this is former U. Md. pitcher Jimmy Reed.

[weams]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/robbie-erlin-tommy-john-surgery.html

Robbie Erlin

[weams]

He chose the surgery and it will be done by Dr. Andrews next week. By the way, this is former U. Md. pitcher Jimmy Reed.

Glad to hear. Good luck to him.

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tommy John surgeries are down, and nobody quite knows why: <a href="https://t.co/BGytFO8H1J">https://t.co/BGytFO8H1J</a> <a href="https://t.co/MPmndMM1h3">pic.twitter.com/MPmndMM1h3</a></p>— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) <a href="

">May 11, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RHP Wade Davis has been placed on 15-day D.L. (retro to July 1) with a right forearm strain. RHP <a href="https://twitter.com/BrooksPounders">@BrooksPounders</a> selected. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a></p>— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) <a href="

">July 5, 2016</a></blockquote>

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