The O's will lead all of baseball in home runs this year

[Can_of_corn]

It's not beneficial. Its so 2009.

You know where I stand on the topic.

Now if there was evidence that elevated pitch counts intensified the TTTOP that would be another story.

[Frobby]

I agree, RPG is the most important stat. What happened to the boom or bust offense in 2012 and 2014 playoffs? You all are acting as though plate discipline and the ability to manufacture runs is a bad thing. Unfortunately, the Orioles are particularly strong at either which is why they had several games with 0 or 1 run.

I did a few analyses the last couple of years that showed that the O's were no more prone than the average team to be subject to "bust" games; in fact, they were less so. I won't repeat it all here, but here is a sampling as to 2014:

- O's got shut out 11 times; league average was 11.1

- O's scored one run or less 24 times; league average was 29.2

- O's scored two runs or less 50 times; league average was 52.3

- O's scored three runs or less 72 times; league average was 76.0

So, the idea that our average runs per game is OK but that it is skewed by more highs and lows than the typical team is wrong.

Don't get me wrong, I like it when a team can move a runner over when the situation calls for it. I do wish we were better at that. But overall, the strengths of our offense outweigh the weaknesses.

[weams]

What happened in 2014 is that the Royals destroyed BABIP over a four game stretch.

I wouldn't read much more then that in it.

Everything they hit dropped in, everything the O's hit got caught.

It has happened many many times. The playoffs are when the die comes up snake eye.

[weams]

I did a few analyses the last couple of years that showed that the O's were no more prone than the average team to be subject to "bust" games; in fact, they were less so. I won't repeat it all here, but here is a sampling as to 2014:

- O's got shut out 11 times; league average was 11.1

- O's scored one run or less 24 times; league average was 29.2

- O's scored two runs or less 50 times; league average was 52.3

- O's scored three runs or less 72 times; league average was 76.0

So, the idea that our average runs per game is OK but that it is skewed by more highs and lows than the typical team is wrong.

Don't get me wrong, I like it when a team can move a runner over when the situation calls for it. I do wish we were better at that. But overall, the strengths of our offense outweigh the weaknesses.

I completely agree with this well researched and not shoot from the hip post.

[Frobby]

I completely agree with this well researched and not shoot from the hip post.

Thanks. I might add that while the Royals were very good at avoiding shutouts (only shut out 7 times compared to our 11), they were worse than us in all the other low-scoring categories.

0 runs: 7 (11)

1 or less: 32 (24)

2 or less: 55 (52)

3 or less: 79 (72)

Judging anything based on four games is a mistake IMO.

[weams]

Thanks. I might add that while the Royals were very good at avoiding shutouts (only shut out 7 times compared to our 11), they were worse than us in all the other low-scoring categories.

0 runs: 7 (11)

1 or less: 32 (24)

2 or less: 55 (52)

3 or less: 79 (72)

Judging anything based on four games is a mistake IMO.

They were very, very, lucky.

[OFFNY]

Thanks. I might add that while the Royals were very good at avoiding shutouts (only shut out 7 times compared to our 11), they were worse than us in all the other low-scoring categories.

0 runs: 7 (11)

1 or less: 32 (24)

2 or less: 55 (52)

3 or less: 79 (72)

Judging anything based on four games is a mistake IMO.

I agree with this.

By the same token, I don't believe that our 3-game sweep of the Tigers necessarily proved that we were leaps and bounds better than they were, either.

Our 96-66 record over the 162-game season DID prove (in my rat's ass of an opinion) that we were capable of going to-to-toe with any team in the majors last year.

[Frobby]

I agree with this.

By the same token, I don't believe that our 3-game sweep of the Tigers necessarily proved that we were leaps and bounds better than they were, either.

Our 96-66 record over the 162-game season DID prove (in my rat's ass of an opinion) that we were capable of going to-to-toe with any team in the majors last year.

That's how I see it. I do think the structure of the playoffs, with so many off-days, allows teams to hide their weakest starting pitcher (or two) and allows heavier reliance than normal on the top couple of relievers, and that will favor some teams more than others. And then there's just the matter of who's hot and who gets the bounces.

[Babypowder]

Major league average was 3.82 P/PA, O's were at 3.80 and ranked 17th of 30 teams. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2014-pitches-batting.shtml As usual, Boston (4.05, 1st in MLB) and New York (3.90, 3rd in MLB) were near the top, but guess what? Their offenses sucked.

There is exactly one offensive team stat I really care about: runs per game. I don't care how they get there, just rank high in that stat and nothing else really matters in terms of offense.

Except that isn't a great stat either. Unless you want to believe the Rockies somehow always have a great offense.

[El Gordo]

Except that isn't a great stat either. Unless you want to believe the Rockies somehow always have a great offense.

COL is a big anomaly because of the altitude. It's the exception that proves the rule.

[scOtt]

[MarylandAaron]

I don't know.. I think the absence of Cruz will bring down our power production a good deal. The only way I see the O's matching last year's HR totals is Davis has an absolutely huge year like 2013.

[Phantom]

I am getting my Opening Day projection ready and here is one of the outcomes of the analysis.

People says how are you going to make up for the loss of Cruz and Markakis homers. I think the O's are built to hit homers. Here is what I see:

Davis 37

Jones 31

Pearce 24

Manny 20

Hardy 18

Schoop 18

Wieters 17 (playing 63% of the games)

De Aza 12

Young 10

Alvarez 10

Joseph 9

Paredes 6

Snider 4

Reimold 4

Flaherty 2

Cabrera 1

Total 223

More to come over the next few days..........

So basically you take a projection system like Zips or Streamer, bump everyone up 0-5 homers, and bump no one down any significant amount? This is how you get bad projections.

[Frobby]

Except that isn't a great stat either. Unless you want to believe the Rockies somehow always have a great offense.

Fair point. Once you get into park adjusted stats, you can't calculate them yourself. So let's just say runs per game is the most meaningful "simple" offensive team stat.

[wildcard]

So basically you take a projection system like Zips or Streamer, bump everyone up 0-5 homers, and bump no one down any significant amount? This is how you get bad projections.

My numbers are based on the player's 3 year averages in most cases. If you don't agree with them, let see yours?