The O's will lead all of baseball in home runs this year

[wildcard]

I am getting my Opening Day projection ready and here is one of the outcomes of the analysis.

People says how are you going to make up for the loss of Cruz and Markakis homers. I think the O's are built to hit homers. Here is what I see:

Davis 37

Jones 31

Pearce 24

Manny 20

Hardy 18

Schoop 18

Wieters 17 (playing 63% of the games)

De Aza 12

Young 10

Alvarez 10

Joseph 9

Paredes 6

Snider 4

Reimold 4

Flaherty 2

Cabrera 1

Total 223

More to come over the next few days..........

[backwardsk]

I don't know if we'll win 96 games again, but I do like our chances of scoring more runs and hitting more home runs than 2014.

You sure are sold on Alvarez

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

We should be at or near the top, though I think 223 is very aggressive. Obviously, health will play a role. I'm interested to know how many PA's you think each of these players are going to have, especially Alvarez, who hit 15 HR in 564 PA last year in the minors, and is projected to hit 10 here.

[wildcard]

We should be at or near the top, though I think 223 is very aggressive. Obviously, health will play a role. I'm interested to know how many PA's you think each of these players are going to have, especially Alvarez, who hit 15 HR in 564 PA last year in the minors, and is projected to hit 10 here.

Its all coming. You know I don't do PAs. I do At Bats.

On Alvarez look at how many he hit at Bowie and how many he hit at Norfolk. Then think which park is closer to Camden Yard environment.

[Redskins Rick]

I agree with you and Melewski made some good points the other day.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/147030-Melewski-take-on-Team-HRs-minus-Cruz-s-bat

[21xxxv]

I am getting my Opening Day projection ready and here is one of the outcomes of the analysis.

People says how are you going to make up for the loss of Cruz and Markakis homers. I think the O's are built to hit homers. Here is what I see:

Davis 37

Jones 31

Pearce 24

Manny 20

Hardy 18

Schoop 18

Wieters 17 (playing 63% of the games)

De Aza 12

Young 10

Alvarez 10

Joseph 9

Paredes 6

Snider 4

Reimold 4

Flaherty 2

Cabrera 1

Total 223

More to come over the next few days..........

Let's get Weiters his first single in any game at any level in 11 months first..

[wildcard]

Just curious from the stat-nerd standpoint - why is that?

Just the way I have always done it. I am comfortable there. Some of the places I use to do the analysis don't even list PAs. Not that I can't find them if I wanted them.

I am not that nerdy. I am not a saber guy. Just an old school O's fan.

[Frobby]

Its all coming. You know I don't do PAs. I do At Bats.

On Alvarez look at how many he hit at Bowie and how many he hit at Norfolk. Then think which park is closer to Camden Yard environment.

I know you did at bats last year, but I really don't know why, since walks and other ways of getting on base are important. But whatever. I just want to know how much playing time you think these guys are going to have. Obviously, you think Alvarez is going to play a lot more than I do.

As to the difference between Bowie and Norfolk, yes Bowie stadium is more hitter friendly than Harbor Park, but there's also a difference in the quality of the competition, and don't forget, half the games are on the road.

[wildcard]

Let's get Weiters his first single in any game at any level in 11 months first..

In a normal year Wieters would have 22. But he may not hit any in the first 2 months. But I think he will come around in the 2nd half. Joseph is going to give him a lot of rest. His legs will not be worn down by catching 140 games.

[Frobby]

Just the way I have always done it. I am comfort there. Some of the places I use to do the analysis don't even list PAs. Not that I can't find them if I wanted them.

I am not that nerdy. I am not a saber guy. Just an old school O's fan.

I wouldn't call PA a nerdy stat. They've been using it to determine who qualifies for the batting title as long as I've been alive. But like I said, whatever. The assumptions about playing time will be clear enough no matter which one you use.

[Frobby]

In a normal year Wieters would have 22. But he may not hit any in the first 2 months. But I think he will come around in the 2nd half. Joseph is going to give him a lot of rest. His legs will not be worn down by catching 140 games.

If you are right that we'll get 26 homers out of our catchers, that will be pretty impressive. No AL team had more than 23 last year (we had 19).

[wildcard]

I wouldn't call PA a nerdy stat. They've been using it to determine who qualifies for the batting title as long as I've been alive. But like I said, whatever. The assumptions about playing time will be clear enough no matter which one you use.

Yes, but you are a youngster.

[wildcard]

If you are right that we'll get 26 homers out of our catchers, that will be pretty impressive. No AL team had more than 23 last year (we had 19).

No other team hit 200 homers last year. The O's are unique with their power.

[wildcard]

I do think that Wieters projection is a little high. I think it's going to be one of those "rehab during the season" kind of years like we saw with Nick after those string of surgeries. I'm not sure he's going to be 100% full strength at any point during the year. Same with Hardy. Doesn't mean they both won't pop some homers, but I see Wieters more in the 12 range.

Thing of it is that if you make your own projection its probably hard to get under 200 homers.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't call PA a nerdy stat. They've been using it to determine who qualifies for the batting title as long as I've been alive. But like I said, whatever. The assumptions about playing time will be clear enough no matter which one you use.

Yes, but you are a youngster.

OK, so you made me look it up, and I was just slightly wrong. The rule for qualifying changed from 400 at bats to 3.1 plate appearances per scheduled game in 1958, the year after I was born. The rule changed quite a few times before then, based on various tests of games played or at bats. http://www.baseballlibrary.com/chronology/rules2.php

Thanks for making me feel like a young whippersnapper.