Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[davearm]

Wouldn't you consider Murton to be a better 4th outfielder then Pie, atleast at this point? Has a little more experience then Pie at this point? No way Pie goes back to AAA though, right? Seems like he's done it all there.

You lost me.

I don't envision Pie headed for a 4th OF role, with or without Crisp onboard.

[davearm]

What happen late last year that made Lou lose faith in him?

Marquis was pretty shaky in the second half, September especially.

As a result, he was left off the playoff roster.

I've seen nothing to suggest that Lou feels any more confident in him now than he did last fall.

[gocubs2118]

Marquis has always been known for being a decent to good first half pitcher. Then falling off the face of the earth during the second half of the season.

[bigbird]

Patterson is faster than Roberts, and has nearly equal minor league OBP percentages, with Roberts slightly ahead.

Roberts is a better base-stealer, and has better defense.

Patterson is far more likely to be the better hitter over the next 5 years.

Would you like to lay a little $$$$ on that?????

[Number5]

Patterson is faster than Roberts, and has nearly equal minor league OBP percentages, with Roberts slightly ahead.

Roberts is a better base-stealer, and has better defense.

Patterson is far more likely to be the better hitter over the next 5 years.

Based on what? I am really surprised at the comments you have made about Patterson and Cedeno. You are entitled to your opinion, but I've seen nothing that convinces me that Patterson will be an everyday player in the big leagues, much less outperform Roberts over the next five years.

[66-70-83-??]

You're welcome to your opinion. I disagree. Patterson is probably 50-50 to put an OPS as high as Roberts over the next five years, but I think he is less than 20% chance to be a better overall player (total offensive output plus defense).

Is getting a player who is better than Roberts your requirement for making a trade?

Does AM have to have a crystal ball and get a young guy that he is *sure* will be better than Roberts? That is a pretty tall order.

We aren't just getting Patterson. We would also be getting Cedeno, Gallagher, and probably another player or two.

No matter what trade we make for Roberts- AM will get multiple players back which mitigates the risk.

We can build a championship team with a 2B with less abilities than ROberts.

I see enough in Cedeno and Patterson to be both

a) skeptical

b) encouraged

In other words, I am stumped. I am really not sure about these guys. Then again, even when I am reasonably *sure* about a prospect, in reality it is still anyones guess as to which ones will pan out.

But, I do know that we should deal Roberts. I will leave it up to AM to figure out the details.

[chicubsvatech]

I'm going to open a can of worms here.

Obviously, I'm a Cubs fan. I really don't like this trade because I feel Roberts is only a slight upgrade over DeRosa. Looking at Roberts' stats, his numbers are only slightly higher in BA, OPS, OBP, HR, etc. to DeRosa.

So, my question is, why is Roberts so wonderful? Hendry, MacPhail, and everyone on this board seems to worship the ground he is walking on. So I believe he is a great player, but I want an O's fan to explain why. His numbers sure don't warrant the praise he's been given, so what is it?

Is Roberts more than a switch hitting DeRosa with speed?

[Owatcher]

The O's are being foolish then.

You don't approach a rebuilding year the same way you approach a contending year.

The O's are just wasting time with Roberts at 2B. He's not going to be there by the time they're good. So the smart thing to do is to move him and look ahead to finding a replacement 2B that can be part of the next good O's team.

I agree 100%. The smart thing is to move him. But that doesn't mean right now, in this deal for the current players the Cubs are allegedly offering. When they feel they are getting the best deal they can get, they should pull the trigger. But there's no rush for the O's. Only for the Cubs. Tick, tick, tick...

[davearm]

So, you're saying that, since Roberts had an unusual progression, you want to pencil in Patterson to do the same thing. OK, feel free. I'm not going to count on that. Patterson definitely has a chance to become Brian Roberts. I'd put it at about 20%. That isn't a good enough chance IMO.

You also seem to conveniently ignore all the other differences between Roberts and Patterson like speed, SB%, defense, OBP, but whatever....

I haven't penciled in anything. I haven't ruled out anything, either.

What we've got here is a situation where if things break right with Patterson (or wrong with Roberts), and factoring in not only production, but age, cost, service time, etc., the O's could conceivably "win" this trade just on the Patterson/Roberts portion -- and Patterson is the third or fourth best player in the deal! If that happens, then all of the other players you're getting are gravy.

I've said it before -- young "buy low" prospects with nice upsides like Patterson are precisely what the O's should be trying to stockpile right about now. They're clearly doing just that on the pitching side. What's with the resistance to doing the very same thing on the hitting side?

[davearm]

I agree 100%. The smart thing is to move him. But that doesn't mean right now, in this deal for the current players the Cubs are allegedly offering. When they feel they are getting the best deal they can get, they should pull the trigger. But there's no rush for the O's. Only for the Cubs. Tick, tick, tick...

This very well may be the best deal they can get.

Let's not ignore that Roberts' value is most likely to slip as he gets nearer to free agency. Scenarios where he's worth more at the trade deadline or whatever are awfully optimistic and improbable.

Tick tick tick goes both ways on this one.

[Owatcher]

I'm going to open a can of worms here.

Obviously, I'm a Cubs fan. I really don't like this trade because I feel Roberts is only a slight upgrade over DeRosa. Looking at Roberts' stats, his numbers are only slightly higher in BA, OPS, OBP, HR, etc. to DeRosa.

So, my question is, why is Roberts so wonderful? Hendry, MacPhail, and everyone on this board seems to worship the ground he is walking on. So I believe he is a great player, but I want an O's fan to explain why. His numbers sure don't warrant the praise he's been given, so what is it?

Is Roberts more than a switch hitting DeRosa with speed?

Watch him play some time. He's a gamer, is very consistent, get's dirty and makes things happen. He's a playmaker. Not sure how that translates into stats, but the professional baseball folks (& O's fans) know the value of his presence in a lineup. They (Hendry, Pinella, McPhail) and us O's fans get it. He's one of the best in the game today at the position.

[Number5]

This very well may be the best deal they can get.

Let's not ignore that Roberts' value is most likely to slip as he gets nearer to free agency. Scenarios where he's worth more at the trade deadline or whatever are awfully optimistic and improbable.

Tick tick tick goes both ways on this one.

Dave, there isn't a question that the Orioles' alarm clock is set much later than the Cubs' on this is there?

If this was our best or only offer at the trade deadline, 2009, I'd probably jump on it, but we aren't close to that time, and, lets face it, the Cubs rumored offer right now is not a drop dead, slam dunk, gotta-have-it offer. Not that AM is asking for something that dramatic, but he has said he is looking for quality over quantity on this one, and the Cubs have pretty much put their true "quality" guys on their "untouchable" list.

I can understand not considering trading key people to their pennant hopes like Hill, Marmol, and Pie right now, but people like Colvin and Ceda are not going to help the Cubs finally grab that brass ring in year 100. For one of them to be the stumbling block seems to be a pretty big gamble on Hendry's part, IMO.

[davearm]

Dave, there isn't a question that the Orioles' alarm clock is set much later than the Cubs' on this is there?

If this was our best or only offer at the trade deadline, 2009, I'd probably jump on it, but we aren't close to that time, and, lets face it, the Cubs rumored offer right now is not a drop dead, slam dunk, gotta-have-it offer. Not that AM is asking for something that dramatic, but he has said he is looking for quality over quantity on this one, and the Cubs have pretty much put their true "quality" guys on their "untouchable" list.

I can understand not considering trading key people to their pennant hopes like Hill, Marmol, and Pie right now, but people like Colvin and Ceda are not going to help the Cubs finally grab that brass ring in year 100. For one of them to be the stumbling block seems to be a pretty big gamble on Hendry's part, IMO.

Depends on your definition of "much later."

IMO unless specific fortuitous (for the O's) circumstances arise, offers probably won't be this good in July, and they are significantly less likely to be this good in November.

[Number5]

Depends on your definition of "much later."

IMO unless specific fortuitous (for the O's) circumstances arise, offers probably won't be this good in July, and they are significantly less likely to be this good in November.

We certainly disagree on this. The Cubs lose nothing they are counting on this season for their pennant chase in any of the rumored offers, not even the guy whose place in the lineup Roberts would take. That is an extreme rarity in a trade for a player of Roberts caliber. So the Orioles must be getting some top prospects, right? Well, uh, no, not exactly. There is one player that has a projected ceiling of a possible #3 SP in the big leagues. OK, and? Well, uh...

No, Dave, the Cubs, themselves would offer at least as much in July if they are in a fight for the division and have the same lineup they have now. Probably more. I'm betting several other teams will be interested in Roberts between now and July. It just seems very unlikely that some teams wouldn't.

Is it a gamble? Sure, all player personnel decisions are gambles to one degree or another. The odds just seem to favor AM on this one.

This is why it is my opinion that the Cubs are under the gun time-wise more so than the Orioles.

[SevisonJN]

Not really. Then again, I guess it's debatable on how much of an advantage that speed gives him over DeRosa. Some say it's a lot. Frankly speaking, assuming DeRosa's defense at 2B is at least average, I'm not sure why Hendry is so hellbent on getting Roberts. That's not my (our) problem. It's yours. LOL

Simple: SB's and Runs. How many All Star games has DeRosa played in? I agree that DeRosa is a solid ball player. I know why the Cubs want to make the deal and so do you. Brian Roberts can manufactuar a run by stealing bases. He plays gold glove quality defense and he takes pitches. The guy is a better player than DeRosa hands down, the most over rated baseball statistic is Home Runs. Ichiro doesn't hit many homeruns, but Iwould take him over most of the other right fielders in the game. If runs and stolen bases are not that important than how did Rickey Henderson get into the Hall? If defense isn't that important than how did Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith get into the Hall? DeRosa is a good utility guy, but you will not here of a 4-1 centered around DeRosa. Just saying.....