Sun: Cubs Offer Ceden, Gallagher, Veal and maybe a 4th player - For Roberts

[davearm]

So why are the Cubs trying so hard to get Roberts instead?

Because Roberts has an established level of production at the major league level. Patterson could be better, or he could be worse. And moreover, he's going to require time and patience to reach his potential.

The Cubs want the safer bet, and don't have time for another rookie learning OTJ while they're trying to contend.

Frankly I thought all of this was easily understood common knowledge.

[The Rick]

Of course, although that's irrelevant to this discussion.

I made the statement that Patterson has the POTENTIAL to put up the same sort of offensive statline as Roberts does. I was challenged on that, so I have since illustrated how that at similar ages (22, 23, and 24), Patterson was in fact better than Roberts.

Given the fact that Patterson was the better minor leaguer, it doesn't strike me as much of a stretch to think Patterson can be as good as Roberts in the bigleagues.

Go back and re-read post #192 if you're still confused.

It's a pointless discussion given that EPat having that potential doesn't help you this year. Roberts is a proven commodity that helps you NOW.

CPat was a pretty good minor leaguer too, eh? Like I said, good thing MiLB #'s equal MLB #'s.

[JohnD]

Because Roberts has an established level of production at the major league level. Patterson could be better, or he could be worse. And moreover, he's going to require time and patience to reach his potential.

The Cubs want the safer bet, and don't have time for another rookie learning OTJ while they're trying to contend.

Frankly I thought all of this was easily understood common knowledge.

I was just curious since you're doing a pretty good job of downplaying what Roberts brings and how good he is.

[davearm]

It's a pointless discussion given that EPat having that potential doesn't help you this year. Roberts is a proven commodity that helps you NOW.

CPat was a pretty good minor leaguer too, eh? Like I said, good thing MiLB #'s equal MLB #'s.

You're clearly still confused.

Go back and read what I said back at post #192, specifically about Patterson's value to the O's. Here's the passage:

The Cubs' commitment to several other rookies, coupled with their their positioning themselves as a contender makes it abundantly clear why DeRosa > Patterson. The O's, by contrast, present an ideal situation for Patterson to sink or swim, so to speak. And if he swims, right away the 3rd or 4th guy in the deal matches (or comes close to matching) Roberts' production -- all the rest is gravy.

This is how this discussion of whether Patterson might or might not produce like Roberts in the bigleagues got started.

[McNulty]

Context is overrated.

Patterson had an .817 OPS in the PCL last year, so he was clearly a better hitter than Roberts.

Don't forget that the PCL is notorious for being a ridiculously favorable hitter's league.

[davearm]

I was just curious since you're doing a pretty good job of downplaying what Roberts brings and how good he is.

No, I'm not.

Holding the view that Eric Patterson can become another Brian Roberts isn't some sort of rip on Roberts.

Look it's really this simple. If we were to sit down with a marker and a piece of graph paper, and plot Roberts' and Patterson's OPS year by year, the Patterson line would be above the Roberts line at the age 22, 23, and 24 datapoints.

I hold the apparently whacky view that that relationship might possibly just continue into the future as well, as Patterson passes through ages 25, 26, 27, etc.

[The Rick]

No, I'm not.

Holding the view that Eric Patterson can become another Brian Roberts isn't some sort of rip on Roberts.

Look it's really this simple. If we were to sit down with a marker and a piece of graph paper, and plot Roberts' and Patterson's OPS year by year, the Patterson line would be above the Roberts line at the age 22, 23, and 24 datapoints.

I hold the apparently whacky view that that relationship might possibly just continue into the future as well, as Patterson passes through ages 25, 26, 27, etc.

Does the fact that Patterson may not stick at 2B due to his defense have any impact on this? I would think that it does.

[hatepaste]

I think going into all this, OPS might be getting overvalued a little bit. Atleast just with Brian Roberts, because I don't think that shows the entire player he is. Two thoughts to prove this. First, how is a single then a stolen base different from a double? I'll tell you why! Stolen base doesn't go towards OPS. So quick addition to stats. If we add Brian's 50 stolen bases to his total bases, heck I'll even take out his 7 caught "stealing"s and just add 43. That bumps up his new slugging to .501. And an adjusted OPS of .877. Woah that's a big difference there. Need to find a way of incorporating stolen bases. As stated above, I'm just as happy with Roberts leading off with a single then stolen base, then a double.

If you want further proof of this, Roberts had a .809 OPS last year and Derosa was .791. Not too far off, so according to everyone's logic they are equal. Well don't think the Orioles fans think so, and it's obvious that the Cubs FO doesn't think so.

[RShack]

I think going into all this, OPS might be getting overvalued a little bit. Atleast just with Brian Roberts, because I don't think that shows the entire player he is. Two thoughts to prove this. First, how is a single then a stolen base different from a double? I'll tell you why! Stolen base doesn't go towards OPS. So quick addition to stats. If we add Brian's 50 stolen bases to his total bases, heck I'll even take out his 7 caught "stealing"s and just add 43. That bumps up his new slugging to .501. And an adjusted OPS of .877. Woah that's a big difference there. Need to find a way of incorporating stolen bases. As stated above, I'm just as happy with Roberts leading off with a single then stolen base, then a double.

I didn't check your arithmetic, but your basic idea is right as far as it goes. However, you also gotta do some subtraction for the CS. One good thing about BRob is that he doesn't get many of those, which is important.

[davearm]

I think going into all this, OPS might be getting overvalued a little bit. Atleast just with Brian Roberts, because I don't think that shows the entire player he is. Two thoughts to prove this. First, how is a single then a stolen base different from a double? I'll tell you why! Stolen base doesn't go towards OPS. So quick addition to stats. If we add Brian's 50 stolen bases to his total bases, heck I'll even take out his 7 caught "stealing"s and just add 43. That bumps up his new slugging to .501. And an adjusted OPS of .877. Woah that's a big difference there. Need to find a way of incorporating stolen bases. As stated above, I'm just as happy with Roberts leading off with a single then stolen base, then a double.

If you want further proof of this, Roberts had a .809 OPS last year and Derosa was .791. Not too far off, so according to everyone's logic they are equal. Well don't think the Orioles fans think so, and it's obvious that the Cubs FO doesn't think so.

Everyone seems to understand and acknowledge that the thing that really separates Roberts from DeRosa is baserunning/SBs.

Well that, and the fact that Roberts hits LH, which the Cubs overvalue.

And FYI, if you want to twist stats in the manner you have, you need to subtract CSs from hits, not from SBs. A CS is equivalent to a flyout or a groundout. Of course a better approach would simply be to compare EqA. That's comprehensive of everything you've mentioned, plus park/league adjustments.

[hatepaste]

I didn't check your arithmetic, but your basic idea is right as far as it goes. However, you also gotta do some subtraction for the CS. One good thing about BRob is that he doesn't get many of those, which is important.

I did take out his 7 CS's. Only added 43 "total bases" instead of 50. Roberts > Derosa by a landslide, seems common send to me.But I dunno, some people looking at numbers too hard. Its easy to get numbers to lie.

[hatepaste]

Everyone seems to understand and acknowledge that the thing that really separates Roberts from DeRosa is baserunning/SBs.

Well that, and the fact that Roberts hits LH, which the Cubs overvalue.

And FYI, if you want to twist stats in the manner you have, you need to subtract CSs from hits, not from SBs. A CS is equivalent to a flyout or a groundout.

Well, what I did had the same impact. I added 50 (from SB's) to his total bases, then took out 7 CS's from TB's. So this had the mentioned impact for determining new SLG. However, I guess the -7 would have an affect on OBP too...Checking that real quick. Ok that drops his OBP about 10 points, by taking the 7 steals out. On the other hand, if you do that you can't take it out of total bases too, that's double dipping. So you change the 43 in total bases to 50 you go up 12 points in slugging.

[umfan83]

Apologies if this has already been posted, I just read the last page. There are several rumblings on Cubs message boards that the Cubs are extremely close to a deal for Crisp (with a likely package of Marquis and Fuld going to Boston). Crisp plays CF and is griping about being a starter in Boston (which would obviously continue in Chicago). Right now Pie is scheduled to be the Cubs starting CF, and has proven all that he can prove in AAA......where is Pie going to play this year? Could it be CF in Camden Yards?

Just stirring the pot.

[markpolis]

Apologies if this has already been posted, I just read the last page. There are several rumblings on Cubs message boards that the Cubs are extremely close to a deal for Crisp (with a likely package of Marquis and Fuld going to Boston). Crisp plays CF and is griping about being a starter in Boston (which would obviously continue in Chicago). Right now Pie is scheduled to be the Cubs starting CF, and has proven all that he can prove in AAA......where is Pie going to play this year? Could it be CF in Camden Yards?

Just stirring the pot.

Ah, there is a guy named Adam Jones who will hopefully be patrolling CF for the Orioles for quite some time.

[bluehens45]

Apologies if this has already been posted, I just read the last page. There are several rumblings on Cubs message boards that the Cubs are extremely close to a deal for Crisp (with a likely package of Marquis and Fuld going to Boston). Crisp plays CF and is griping about being a starter in Boston (which would obviously continue in Chicago). Right now Pie is scheduled to be the Cubs starting CF, and has proven all that he can prove in AAA......where is Pie going to play this year? Could it be CF in Camden Yards?

Just stirring the pot.

I would love to get Pie but im pretty sure Ajones has CF locked for the next 10 years. Put him left and let Scott DH or play 1st. A defensive outfield of Pie Jones and Kakes would be a marvel to watch. I have said from the start i think Pie must be in the trade. Gallagher, Pie, Veal would be the package i would want. With Roberts and Crisp in the lineup the cubs would be pretty stacked from top to bottom and i would think it would vault them over the top in a pursuit of a chip.