Mock Draft v. 3.10

[Stotle]

I'll take a shot, though I won't look at this in great detail for a couple more weeks:

1. Tampa Bay Rays -- Pedro Alvarez (RF) [part of why I think they moved Delmon]

2. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Tim Beckham (SS) [impact face of the franchise-type position player]

3. Kansas City Royals -- Aaron Crow (SP) [power arm; local]

4. Baltimore Orioles -- Justin Smoak (1b) [addresses lack of impact power bats in minors and quick to majors]

5. San Francisco Giants -- Brian Matusz (SP) [too early for catchers; most well-rounded SP in draft and west coast kid]

6. Florida Marlins -- Harold Martinez (3b) [elite defense at 3b to go with great HS bat; local]

7. Cincinnati Reds -- Tim Melville (SP) [could be Hunter if prefer college; best HS arm in draft]

8. Chicago White Sox -- Yonder Alonso (1b/dh)[elite bat; signable]

9. Washington Nationals -- Brett Hunter (SP) [hit triple digits with four-seam; good compliment to last year's SP picks]

10. Houston Astros -- Eric Hosmer (1b) [system is decimated; FO makes a splash meeting bonus demands for best HS power bat]

11. Texas Rangers -- Christian Friedrich (SP) [college SP with plus-curve and touching on plus-fastball]

12. Oakland Athletics -- Jacob Thompson (SP) [looks sharp, again, this year; draws comps to previous 2007 OAK 1st rounder Justin Simmons]

13. St. Louis Cardinals -- Kyle Skipworth © [probably best available, though not enough of the season has passed to figure out whether his bat will be viewed as "legit" or "promising"]

14. Minnesota Twins -- Gerritt Cole (SP) [MIN starts to rebuild the pitching in their system with possibly best fastball in draft]

15. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Aaron Hicks (SP/OF) [LAD takes local kid with plus-fastball and solid breaking pitch; start him at SP and convert back to toolsy-OF in a couple years if he doesn't establish a solid third offering]

[Greg Pappas]

Tampa: Pedro Alvarez. He'll probably be moved to the outfield.

Pittsburgh: Everyone I've talked to in Pitt says it will be a pitcher. One said Crow, I said "probably" Matusz. This isn't the same as Moskos over Weiters. These two pitchers are legit picks at this spot. Their fans shouldn't be upset by this.

KC: Melville is not as bad a pick here as Greg is saying. Remember everyone had KC taking Porcello last year and only the bonus demands kept that from happening. Now you have another dominant HS pitcher with local connections and without the high bonus demands. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but it's a lot more likely than unlikely to me. A KC fan I talked to that follows the draft says he thinks it'll be Smoak and they'll go Smoak 1B, Butler DH, Moustakas LF, Gordon 3B.

Balt: I think it will either be Smoak or Matusz. If Smoak's there I'd guess that's the pick, although Jordan will think hard about a pitcher. If Rowell breaks out they may go Matusz.

SF: People I heard from out there say Matusz is the pick if he's there. In my scenerio he would be. I could also see Beckham here if he's still on the board.

Fla: Beckham if he's available. Hanley will probably be traded in the next couple of years. They also have a need at catcher, so Skipworth could be the pick.

Cin: I checked my notes and I did make a mistake. Cincinnati has a new scouting director and he's the one that they say likes college players. Brett Hunter, Tanner Scheppers, or Gordon Beckham could be the pick. I could see Harold Martinez here if he has a good season.

Chi: This one will be Alonso based on everything I've read. Unless he goes earlier.

Was: This will be an interesting pick. I'll be stunned if it's Harold Martinez. Everyone other than Greg says he'll be a 3B and I believe even Martinez himself said he expects to move there eventually. If Hosmer's available, I think he'll be the pick. Bowden won't be able to resist the bat. Even though Marrero's at 1B. They wanted Moustakas last year and were willing to deal w/Boras. Skipworth or a college pitcher is possible here. Aaron Hicks is off to a great start as is Gordon Beckham, so they could also go here.

I never said "KC: Melville is not as bad a pick here as Greg is saying." I simply said that I didn't believe he'd be picked that soon.

Again, I never said that Martinez 'would be a SS', I said that I believe he has the skills to play SS, and I base that on comments from Perfect Game and BA, that say his range, arm, and fluid actions at short portend a great defender, but that he may get a gold glove at third if he grows any larger. Interesting that he has draws comparisons (I know, I know) to ARod, and he has not added height since he was 16. Perhaps a team wanting to keep him at short will do so. I would, and if necessary later move him.

As far as the Nationals go, I understand that they have Zim at 3B, and I realize that some teams may chose players based upon current team needs, but it's not a philosophy I subscribe to specifically. Certainly a team's current makeup should be considered, such as for maing a tough choice between two evenly rated players...

[Greg Pappas]

I'll take a shot, though I won't look at this in great detail for a couple more weeks:

1. Tampa Bay Rays -- Pedro Alvarez (RF) [part of why I think they moved Delmon]

2. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Tim Beckham (SS) [impact face of the franchise-type position player]

3. Kansas City Royals -- Aaron Crow (SP) [power arm; local]

4. Baltimore Orioles -- Justin Smoak (1b) [addresses lack of impact power bats in minors and quick to majors]

5. San Francisco Giants -- Brian Matusz (SP) [too early for catchers; most well-rounded SP in draft and west coast kid]

6. Florida Marlins -- Harold Martinez (3b) [elite defense at 3b to go with great HS bat; local]

7. Cincinnati Reds -- Tim Melville (SP) [could be Hunter if prefer college; best HS arm in draft]

8. Chicago White Sox -- Yonder Alonso (1b/dh)[elite bat; signable]

9. Washington Nationals -- Brett Hunter (SP) [hit triple digits with four-seam; good compliment to last year's SP picks]

10. Houston Astros -- Eric Hosmer (1b) [system is decimated; FO makes a splash meeting bonus demands for best HS power bat]

11. Texas Rangers -- Christian Friedrich (SP) [college SP with plus-curve and touching on plus-fastball]

12. Oakland Athletics -- Jacob Thompson (SP) [looks sharp, again, this year; draws comps to previous 2007 OAK 1st rounder Justin Simmons]

13. St. Louis Cardinals -- Kyle Skipworth © [probably best available, though not enough of the season has passed to figure out whether his bat will be viewed as "legit" or "promising"]

14. Minnesota Twins -- Gerritt Cole (SP) [MIN starts to rebuild the pitching in their system with possibly best fastball in draft]

15. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Aaron Hicks (SP/OF) [LAD takes local kid with plus-fastball and solid breaking pitch; start him at SP and convert back to toolsy-OF in a couple years if he doesn't establish a solid third offering]

Hehe, that comment should have been made by me as well. Good post.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm assuming you've seen Martinez? Everyone else I've read says he's a 3B. Even if it's "possible", you don't take him when you have Zimmerman. It doesn't make sense unless he's by far the best player available.

I addresed Pittsburgh in my semi-mock above:)

I'll be shocked if Crow gets by KC.

I'll be really shocked and excited if Crow gets by SF. You say it's too early to count on an 18-year old, but you have them taking another one? And one who may play the same position as Villalona over Crow, Melville, and even Skipworth? Plus you're not even factoring in the bonus demands of Hosmer. I just don't see it.

I could see Melville at Cincy. I just put the college thing because that's what I'm reading/hearing. You can never have enough pitching. But under your mock why would you take Melville over Crow? Crow is a Boras guy, but Cincinnati just spent 2 million on a Dominican player.

Good points concerning SF. I'll remove Hosmer from future considerations there. As far as factoring in bonus demands, that is a tough thing to know about. Teams change their viewpoints almost yearly.

As far as Martinez, I addressed that in my earlier post. I am not a scout, and do not claim to be one. So I have not seen him play personally, nor none of these other players. I base my reviews on the projections and scouting reports of such high-end sites as PG, BA, and BP. I have my own personal views on which players to choose based upon my own research and views on these players.

During your posts I get the impression that you are a professional; a scout perhaps? I admire your viewpoints, and look forward to reading more from you.

[Battleship]

I never said "KC: Melville is not as bad a pick here as Greg is saying." I simply said that I didn't believe he'd be picked that soon.

Again, I never said that Martinez 'would be a SS', I said that I believe he has the skills to play SS, and I base that on comments from Perfect Game and BA, that say his range, arm, and fluid actions at short portend a great defender, but that he may get a gold glove at third if he grows any larger. Interesting that he has draws comparisons (I know, I know) to ARod, and he has not added height since he was 16. Perhaps a team wanting to keep him at short will do so. I would, and if necessary later move him.

As far as the Nationals go, I understand that they have Zim at 3B, and I realize that some teams may chose players based upon current team needs, but it's not a philosophy I subscribe to specifically. Certainly a team's current makeup should be considered, such as for maing a tough choice between two evenly rated players...

On Melville, I think that's a semantics thing. Obviously, you don't think he's the best pick at #3. Perhaps I should have said "I think Melville makes more sense here than Greg does." or something like that.

If Martinez can stick at short with his power potential, I'd love that pick as a Nat's fan. My bet is that if he's seen as a SS by scouts he'll go earlier in the draft(barring a bad season a la Burgess last year).

Based on what I've read, I'll be surprised if the Nats pick Martinez. There seems to be at best uncertainty that he can stay at SS. They would have to be more certain that he'd stick at SS unless, like I said, he's the best player by far.

I'm not a scout. I'm doing the same thing you are. That's why I love reading and posting here and I check your site so often. So we can bounce these ideas off of eachother. I enjoy reading everyones thoughts. I'm going to laugh if between all of us we get a mock that's dead on by June:)

[Greg Pappas]

On Melville, I think that's a semantics thing. Obviously, you don't think he's the best pick at #3. Perhaps I should have said "I think Melville makes more sense here than Greg does." or something like that.

If Martinez can stick at short with his power potential, I'd love that pick as a Nat's fan. My bet is that if he's seen as a SS by scouts he'll go earlier in the draft(barring a bad season a la Burgess last year).

Based on what I've read, I'll be surprised if the Nats pick Martinez. There seems to be at best uncertainty that he can stay at SS. They would have to be more certain that he'd stick at SS unless, like I said, he's the best player by far.

I'm not a scout. I'm doing the same thing you are. That's why I love reading and posting here and I check your site so often. So we can bounce these ideas off of eachother. I enjoy reading everyones thoughts. I'm going to laugh if between all of us we get a mock that's dead on by June:)

Hehe... cool. I was thinking, between me, you and Stotle, not one pick will be right!

[Battleship]

I'll take a shot, though I won't look at this in great detail for a couple more weeks:

1. Tampa Bay Rays -- Pedro Alvarez (RF) [part of why I think they moved Delmon]

2. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Tim Beckham (SS) [impact face of the franchise-type position player]

3. Kansas City Royals -- Aaron Crow (SP) [power arm; local]

4. Baltimore Orioles -- Justin Smoak (1b) [addresses lack of impact power bats in minors and quick to majors]

5. San Francisco Giants -- Brian Matusz (SP) [too early for catchers; most well-rounded SP in draft and west coast kid]

6. Florida Marlins -- Harold Martinez (3b) [elite defense at 3b to go with great HS bat; local]

7. Cincinnati Reds -- Tim Melville (SP) [could be Hunter if prefer college; best HS arm in draft]

8. Chicago White Sox -- Yonder Alonso (1b/dh)[elite bat; signable]

9. Washington Nationals -- Brett Hunter (SP) [hit triple digits with four-seam; good compliment to last year's SP picks]

10. Houston Astros -- Eric Hosmer (1b) [system is decimated; FO makes a splash meeting bonus demands for best HS power bat]

11. Texas Rangers -- Christian Friedrich (SP) [college SP with plus-curve and touching on plus-fastball]

12. Oakland Athletics -- Jacob Thompson (SP) [looks sharp, again, this year; draws comps to previous 2007 OAK 1st rounder Justin Simmons]

13. St. Louis Cardinals -- Kyle Skipworth © [probably best available, though not enough of the season has passed to figure out whether his bat will be viewed as "legit" or "promising"]

14. Minnesota Twins -- Gerritt Cole (SP) [MIN starts to rebuild the pitching in their system with possibly best fastball in draft]

15. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Aaron Hicks (SP/OF) [LAD takes local kid with plus-fastball and solid breaking pitch; start him at SP and convert back to toolsy-OF in a couple years if he doesn't establish a solid third offering]

The only questions on this one for me are:

1) Would Fla take a 3B two years in a row? Are you putting Dominguez at another position?

2) I believe Cole is a Boras guy. Would Minn pay a big bonus? Cole seems like a real wild card to me. He's off to a decent start from what I read, but his age (almost a year younger than Melville) and innings pitched might scare some teams, not to mention Boras. IMO, he could go anywhere from the top 5 or all the way down to someone like the Tigers or Yankees.

[Stotle]

The only questions on this one for me are:

1) Would Fla take a 3B two years in a row? Are you putting Dominguez at another position?

2) I believe Cole is a Boras guy. Would Minn pay a big bonus? Cole seems like a real wild card to me. He's off to a decent start from what I read, but his age (almost a year younger than Melville) and innings pitched might scare some teams, not to mention Boras. IMO, he could go anywhere from the top 5 or all the way down to someone like the Tigers or Yankees.

1. I'm not really sold on Dominguez's bat and Martinez looks like the best talent at that pick. I think Dominguez is a 3b, but I like Martinez more offensively, and probably defensively. Could Dominguez shift to 2b? Maybe, but there wouldn't be a problem with having him a level ahead of Martinez. If FLA decides to avoid a 3b, I'd say HS pitcher -- Melville/Meyer.

2. MIN cut payroll and has a system that has been stripped of most of its top pitching talent. While they aren't known for splurging, I could see it after DET has grabbed stud starters the last two seasons by going over slot. On the other hand, they could steer clear of Cole and opt for Meyer or a college arm. Maybe late-bloomer Ryan Perry, Arizona (similar to Garza, the 2005 1st rounder)?

[Greg Pappas]

The only questions on this one for me are:

1) Would Fla take a 3B two years in a row? Are you putting Dominguez at another position?

2) I believe Cole is a Boras guy. Would Minn pay a big bonus? Cole seems like a real wild card to me. He's off to a decent start from what I read, but his age (almost a year younger than Melville) and innings pitched might scare some teams, not to mention Boras. IMO, he could go anywhere from the top 5 or all the way down to someone like the Tigers or Yankees.

This is just a bit from BA's Prospects Plus, but again, it's a bit early to know for sure if he can stick at short, but if Ripken and other bigger shortstops could do it......

1/2008 — Team One

Martinez has the total package. He has a big, strong body that will continue to mature and add muscle. He has quick feet, soft hands and a strong arm in the infield. He has a compact stroke with bat speed and power potential at the plate. Although the use of some of his tools needs refinement, they are all there and will only get better. His wide stance with no stride affects his rhythm and lower half involvement, but he does such a good job accelerating the barrel through the zone that you forget there is more in there. In the field, Harold can definitely play third base and should be able to stay at shortstop as he learns to play every pitch with the same focus. Overall, he is a premier prospect.

1/2007 — Perfect Game 2007 World Showcase & Holiday Open Showcase

Harold has a terrific, strong, projectable body. He wasn't seen much at the plate but does have solid swing mechanics and should develop some power in the future. He has great actions in the field and a way above-average arm. Projects as a future major league shortstop even on this short look.

[Battleship]

Greg: That would be both embarrassing and funny if we missed on all of them. You should put on your site that we got 100% whatever happens.

Edit: On your post above, if Martinez can stick at short, I've got to think he'll be a very high pick. A player with his power potential at a premium position would be a huge addition for any team.

Stotle: It will be very interesting to see what happens with Cole.

There's still 3 months. Lots of questions as well. Can Gordon Beckham hit like this all season? Will Cole pitch more innings this season? How much will his velocity improve seeing as he's only 17? Who will be with Boras? Can Brett Hunter pitch consistently with his velocity as a starter? Will Pittsburgh and Cincinnati spend anything? Will Villalona stay at 1B for SF? How will all the O's young pitchers do? Will Rowell/Snyder break out? If Hosmer is the best player at #9 will Marrero being a 1B and/or Stan Kasten's dislike of Boras win out over Bowden's love of toolsy players?

Lots of questions.

[ChaosLex]

Honestly, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Alvarez or Beckham fall to us at #4.

[bluehens45]

Question for Gregg/Battleship/Stotle. Lets just say Martinez lights it up for the rest of year and most scouts come to the conclusion he can stay at SS. Could he be someone we are interested in, if Beckham is off the board? If for some reason Smoak, Alvarez, and Beckham go 1-2-3 would we go pitcher? Do any of these pitchers have #1 billing? Is there a Josh Beckett in this class? Thanks fellas.

[Battleship]

Question for Gregg/Battleship/Stotle. Lets just say Martinez lights it up for the rest of year and most scouts come to the conclusion he can stay at SS. Could he be someone we are interested in, if Beckham is off the board? If for some reason Smoak, Alvarez, and Beckham go 1-2-3 would we go pitcher? Do any of these pitchers have #1 billing? Is there a Josh Beckett in this class? Thanks fellas.

If he lights it up(to me that would include hitting for power) and is a SS I'd think he'd go ahead of even Beckham because of the power. Depending on what you mean by lighting it up he may be a consideration for the O's even as a 3B. If Rowell struggles or has to move to 1B, I could see them taking Martinez anyway if he has a big year.

Both Matusz and Crow have the ability to be ace pitchers and move quickly through the minors.

As far as a Beckett comp. The closest in terms of stuff would be Cole. He has the high 90's fastball, although he has a slider has his second pitch instead of Beckett's curve. Joba Chamberlain may be a better comp.

Melville doesn't quite have the velocity of Beckett, but has a great curve and great command.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg: That would be both embarrassing and funny if we missed on all of them. You should put on your site that we got 100% whatever happens.

Edit: On your post above, if Martinez can stick at short, I've got to think he'll be a very high pick. A player with his power potential at a premium position would be a huge addition for any team.

Stotle: It will be very interesting to see what happens with Cole.

There's still 3 months. Lots of questions as well. Can Gordon Beckham hit like this all season? Will Cole pitch more innings this season? How much will his velocity improve seeing as he's only 17? Who will be with Boras? Can Brett Hunter pitch consistently with his velocity as a starter? Will Pittsburgh and Cincinnati spend anything? Will Villalona stay at 1B for SF? How will all the O's young pitchers do? Will Rowell/Snyder break out? If Hosmer is the best player at #9 will Marrero being a 1B and/or Stan Kasten's dislike of Boras win out over Bowden's love of toolsy players?

Lots of questions.

Defense has never been an issue with Martinez, it's the bat that draws a wayward eye. While a good hitter, and an impressive physical specimen, Martinez needs to have a big year at the plate, with projectable pro skills, to garner early first round attention. Here's hoping he does just that.

[Greg Pappas]

If he lights it up(to me that would include hitting for power) and is a SS I'd think he'd go ahead of even Beckham because of the power. Depending on what you mean by lighting it up he may be a consideration for the O's even as a 3B. If Rowell struggles or has to move to 1B, I could see them taking Martinez anyway if he has a big year.

Both Matusz and Crow have the ability to be ace pitchers and move quickly through the minors.

As far as a Beckett comp. The closest in terms of stuff would be Cole. He has the high 90's fastball, although he has a slider has his second pitch instead of Beckett's curve. Joba Chamberlain may be a better comp.

Melville doesn't quite have the velocity of Beckett, but has a great curve and great command.

Well... what he said!