The Boston Series

[Stotle]

4 seam/cutter pct up 25%. 2 seam down 10 % (off career). He's become a flyball pitcher instead of a GB pitcher. I guess he actually started doing this last year though (with better results).It's just gotten worse this year (with bad results).

I think he's referring to the fact that Porcello is now throwing a lot of four-seamers.

I see 1182 pitches so far this year and 2-seamer down 3.5% from last year (about 42 pitches over 12 starts). So Boston's having him throw around 3-4 fewer 2-seamers per start? Maybe that is a significant change. Maybe that is noise over a third of a season and he'll throw a couple more 2S per start over his next 20-24 and end up where he was last year. I don't know.

[Tx Oriole]

It's make or break time for this team.

A sweep.

[Redskins Rick]

A sweep.

As nice as the sweep was, i still think it was too early to be pushing the panic button and saying it was make or break time.

[Stotle]

I think he's referring to the fact that Porcello is now throwing a lot of four-seamers.

The Red Sox really are a dysfunctional mess. HanRam really needs to be a DH, but Big Fatty is there, hitting poorly, and they really can't bench him yet. Panda's weight has caught up with him both offensively and defensively. Swihart was rushed up a year too soon thanks to an injury to their presumptive starting catcher Vazquez. Betts has been surprisingly disappointing (just as Jackie Bradley, Jr. was last year). Napoli looks done, and Victorino can't get on the field.

And that's just the offense. The pitching staff has the worst ERA in the league!

To the good: Pedroia is still a very good player. Bogaerts is developing nicely and has an all-star ceiling IMO. EdRod looks like a stud, and the Sox have some other good pitchers knocking on the door. Betts and Swihart have some talent, if the Sox can be patient with them. Brock Holt has become a pretty solid player.

The Sox have Napoli ($16 mm) and Victorino ($13 mm) coming off the books this winter. Also Ortiz ($16 mm), if they have the guts to cut him loose. So, they have som e money to play with. They could rebound pretty quickly, even though they'll be ruing the Ramirez, Sandoval and Porcello contracts for years to come.

To me, it's one of the many examples we see where intangibles (or whatever you want to call it -- the non-production stuff) matter. Folks can stomp and yell all they want about managers being interchangeable (or worth max one or two wins a year), or how computer simulations show batting order doesn't matter, a closer isn't important, etc., but at the end of the day there are humans playing the game and stuff like morale, clubhouse atmosphere, motivation, etc. all come into play in some form. Do I think Boston is this bad? No. But if you are the guy calling the shots you have to look at the talent on paper and the results and figure out how much is randomness and how much is a problem that needs to be addressed.

Having Swihart up early is unfortunate (for them), having Betts underperforming as a 22 year old is unfortunate (for them), and losing Castillo for a huge chunk of the first third of the season is unfortunate (for them). But they made their bed with Victorino, Hanley, Ortiz, etc., and have to figure out how to shuffle things around. It's great (for them) that Hanley is hitting, but hiding him in LF in Fenway doesn't matter if he has to play a normal-sized left for 81 other games, and is terrible.

I have mentioned I think Baltimore should have been more focused/aggressive in their roster building the last two off seasons. It seems like Boston has the opposite issue, trying to force impact by signing a tandem like Hanley/Panda without having a spot to really play them both. If they really wanted the bat doesn't it seem like they should have signed one of them (not both) to play 3B? I get signing Sandoval or Ramirez, but Boston didn't have room for both. Pick a horse and ride it.

The organization has decided it doesn't want to trade its "prized" prospects, but as a result they aren't maximizing their opportunities. San Diego needed(needs) a CF -- why not ride out JBJ and move Betts to SD for Will Myers, who is a much better fit in a corner? Heck, move some players and get Myers and Hamels before San Diego grabbed Kimbrel. Something like:

Boston

Hamels/Myers

Philly gets:

Owens/Barnes/Margot/Marrero/Wisler/Paroubeck

San Diego

Papelbon/Betts

Yeah, you've given up a couple important pieces, but you have Hamels and Myers solving LF and a rotation spot for the next few seasons, and you still have Rodriguez/Johnson ready to step into the rotation between this year and next, and money coming off the books to buy another arm if you want it.

I don't know -- it reminds me a bit of Texas, falling in love with the young kids and not having enough stability at the ML level. Like Baltimore building an 83-85 win team and hoping things break right, I'm not sure why Texas/Boston seem to be content to roll the dice on their young stars transitioning without hiccups. Oh well -- they're the ones squandering the opportunities, I guess.

[Redskins Rick]

Toronto is rumored to be after Papelbon for their shaky pen.

[Stotle]

Toronto is rumored to be after Papelbon for their shaky pen.

I know at least one other team that could be going after him. I think the poor MLB performance the last couple years (some of which was bad luck) has too may people taking for granted the job the Toronto FO has done building that organization. Lots of time for things to go wrong, but that's a pretty scary collection of arms they have moving towards Toronto.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I see 1182 pitches so far this year and 2-seamer down 3.5% from last year (about 42 pitches over 12 starts). So Boston's having him throw around 3-4 fewer 2-seamers per start? Maybe that is a significant change. Maybe that is noise over a third of a season and he'll throw a couple more 2S per start over his next 20-24 and end up where he was last year. I don't know.

Yeah, I walked that back a bit as he did begin to transition more last year with less 2S FB's while in DET. The career 2S rates are much higher along with the GB rates. He's also throwing more cutters. Combined (4S and cutter) has gone up from about 30% to 43% this year as compared to last year. Most of that are cutters, which seems to be a Boston thing. His GB rate has dropped from 55% in 2013 to a little less than 44% this year. Those are pretty dramatic changes. Among other things his hard hit ball% and HR/FB rate have taken upticks this year.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I walked that back a bit as he did begin to transition more last year with less 2S FB's while in DET. The career 2S rates are much higher along with the GB rates. He's also throwing more cutters. Combined (4S and cutter) has gone up from about 30% to 43% this year as compared to last year. Most of that are cutters, which seems to be a Boston thing. His GB rate has dropped from 55% in 2013 to a little less than 44% this year. Those are pretty dramatic changes. Among other things his hard hit ball% and HR/FB rate have taken upticks this year.

Detroit added more cutter use to Ian Krol, as well, at expense of his CB (which I don't understand).

I don't know enough about the specifics w/Porcello's batted ball to have a strong opinion on 2015. Is it deep enough in the season to place import on the percentages for batted ball data? What would percentages look like if he had one more ground ball in each of his 12 starts and one fewer fly ball?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yeah, I don't buy that the Red Sox are anymore affected by chemistry than we have been. The Red Sox have made a lot of really bad decisions and can't seem to develop young players very well. The horrid numbers, bad contracts, poor performance, lack of depth and broken down players speak for themselves and were in many ways predictable. Thankfully for them they have a lot of money to help overcome their horrid decision making.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I don't buy that the Red Sox are anymore affected by chemistry than we have been. The Red Sox have made a lot of really bad decisions and can't seem to develop young players very well. The horrid numbers, bad contracts, poor performance, lack of depth and broken down players speak for themselves and were in many ways predictable. Thankfully for them they have a lot of money to help overcome their horrid decision making.

I think this offseason has the potential to be an indictment on how the brain trust is building the team. Signing Hanley to play left is one of those things that could have looked good or bad. Right now it looks like they should have steered clear of Panda and just signed Hanley to play 3B. But, it's still early (technically).

I don't know what to think about prospect development. If you go watch a team like their Low A affiliate in the Sally this year it's striking how talented the players are. Tough to argue with how Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart can look on any given day, or how Betts looked during his call-up last year. Cases like JBJ are problematic, but then you remember this isn't a "can't miss" top of the first round guy. How much is just natural attrition of prospects that were drafted and simply couldn't put it together? And is someone like JBJ done, or is there further development possible?

I'm open to the idea that they don't know how to develop players, but it doesn't seem to jive with how well their affiliates run and what the players look like on the field. You've won me over to reconsidering my position with respect to Boston's development, and I'm interested to follow the story. I maintain they do a good job on the acquisition front (generally), even if they take on a little too much risk at times knowing that they aren't relying on these guys.

Problem is, the "buy your way out of it" solution, which I think you are correct about, isn't as effective anymore. I honestly don't know what to think. Have to ponder the whole situation and hope to discuss it further with a little more nuance.

[weams]

Wow. They just spent an insane amount of money on Free agents, plus Porcello's ridiculous deal , plus the 62 million dollar Cuban. Gonna take a lot to flush all that down. I thought they were a model franchise with great prospects?

Depends who's talking. When.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You've won me over to reconsidering my position with respect to Boston's development, and I'm interested to follow the story.

Wow, I never thought I could win anybody over on anything.

[CA-ORIOLE]

In other news another sterling day for the Red Sox faithful.

[weams]

I don't know anything about their clubhouse; just on-field they look disjointed. The young talent is impressive; the FIP for the starters is like a run better than ERA across the board, so the easy conclusion is the defense is doing some damage. Wonder if they need to reexamine their proprietary defensive metrics, since they've publicly stated (when asked about signing certain players) that they "have their own defensive models and they point to that player likely to perform very well in Fenway."

The best thing for O's fans would be to hope Boston continues to trade prospects for MLB talent that will get injured or see their performance decline over time.

We broke them

[weams]

Sons of Sam Horn

Posted Today, 09:36 PM

Rudy Pemberton, on 12 Jun 2015 - 9:35 PM, said:

Any good candidates for a new President of baseball operations? No way Farrell survives, and no way they let Cherington hire the new guy.

Dan Duquette?