Wild Idea: Offer O'Day the QO

[spiritof66]

The proposal to make the QO to O'Day is interesting, as are the possible consequences of the QO to O'Day. But it's a one-year risk of a lot of dollars that the Orioles clearly shouldn't be taking. It won't happen, and it shouldn't happen.

I say that as one who believes it's important for the Orioles to try to retain O'Day and Britton (and keep in the pen). The Orioles were 13th in the AL in innings pitched by starters, with an average of just over 5.5 per game. (The Royals were 15th, but often went to their deep, deep pen early as a matter of strategy rather than necessity.) A team with starters who don't go deep into games needs all the bullpen depth it can muster. I don't see that changing, except that the departure of Chen is likely to increase further the burden on the relief corps.

Here's hoping that Darren is reading up on the Nats' situation and is leery of spending the rest of his career in Washington.

[DrungoHazewood]

Loyalty ought to work both ways.

Maybe it does. Maybe the Orioles are seriously talking to O'Day's people about a reasonable extension and the QO would torpedo that process. And yes, one of the main reasons for compensation is to discourage full and open free agency, to steer players back to their own teams while keeping salaries down.

[FanSince88]

If you do this and he takes it, then he's your closer and it's happy trails to Britton. Of course, Zach's trade value would immediately go down b/c everyone would know we needed to trade him. But you can't have Zach and a 15mil O'Day on the team at the same time.

[FanSince88]

If you do this and he takes it, then he's your closer and it's happy trails to Britton. Of course, Zach's trade value would immediately go down b/c everyone would know we needed to trade him. But you can't have Zach and a 15mil O'Day on the team at the same time.

Unless you try to make Zach a starter. But then you'd better hope he works as a starter.

[FanSince88]

The net present value of 3 years at 5.75mil with an 8% interest rate is roughly equivalent to the 15.8 mil QO. So O'Day would have to think he can sign a 3/5.75 contract elsewhere or better. A 2/8.5 would be better nPV, but I would still prefer to have the 15.8 upfront. With the loss of the draft pick, not sure there would be many suitors. If I was O'Day I'd take the QO. You'll still probably get a decent contract after the QO year.

[mdbdotcom]

The net present value of 3 years at 5.75mil with an 8% interest rate is roughly equivalent to the 15.8 mil QO. So O'Day would have to think he can sign a 3/5.75 contract elsewhere or better. A 2/8.5 would be better nPV, but I would still prefer to have the 15.8 upfront. With the loss of the draft pick, not sure there would be many suitors. If I was O'Day I'd take the QO. You'll still probably get a decent contract after the QO year.

Unless you fall back a little at age 34.

[spiritof66]

If you do this and he takes it, then he's your closer and it's happy trails to Britton. Of course, Zach's trade value would immediately go down b/c everyone would know we needed to trade him. But you can't have Zach and a 15mil O'Day on the team at the same time.

Tillman has pitched a strong 5 innings, and we're ahead 4-2. But he's thrown 95 pitches, so he probably won't get through the 6th. How are you getting to our new closer? Do you care that the other team (we'll call them them the Yankees) is stacked with left-handed and switch-hitting power guys?

[mdbdotcom]

Tillman has pitched a strong 5 innings, and we're ahead 4-2. But he's thrown 95 pitches, so he probably won't get through the 6th. How are you getting to our new closer? Do you care that the other team (we'll call them them the Yankees) is stacked with left-handed and switch-hitting power guys?

Bundy>Brach>Givens

Don't worry about the splits.

[sportsfan8703]

Bundy>Brach>Givens

Don't worry about the splits.

Honestly that's our "ACE" right there. The bullpen. Except they can pitch more than every 5 days.

[MDtransplant757]

Makes sense, I wouldn't mind keeping him for at least another year and work something out during the offseason. From that perspective it makes sense, and we could have the one two punch of O'Day and Britton, who wouldn't want that?

[25 Nuggets]

Bundy>Brach>Givens

Don't worry about the splits.

Honestly that's our "ACE" right there. The bullpen. Except they can pitch more than every 5 days.

Bundy has done nothing at the ML level yet and Brach is a good but not dominant reliever. Only Givens looks like "ACE" level pitching in that scenario.

[Crazysilver03]

Makes sense, I wouldn't mind keeping him for at least another year and work something out during the offseason. From that perspective it makes sense, and we could have the one two punch of O'Day and Britton, who wouldn't want that?

Problem is you are blowing a large chunk of your budget on something you shouldn't be.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

[Nevermore]

Seems crazy to make the offer to a setup man, but hear me out. O'Day has put up 2.0-2.5 wins the last three years and is on pace for another, including a 1.70 ERA last year and on pace for better than that this year. He merits a Miller type deal, way in excess of $15M guaranteed (Miller is guaranteed $36M and was reportedly offered $40M). Let's say conservatively O'Day is offered 4/$28M.

Now, with that in mind, my intention would not be to sign him, but to put pressure on O'Day to sign with the O's. Even at only $7M a year, he has every incentive to take the guaranteed money from the O's or another team. Walking away from $28M would be a very risky proposition, and as we know, nobody has ever taken a 1-year QO deal for that reason.

Worst case scenario, O'Day accepts the QO. We get a 2.0+ WAR, <2.00 ERA relief pitcher for another year at $15M. If the O's don't contend next year, he could be a valuable piece to offer for prospects and turn into the next Chris Davis/Tommy Hunter, and somebody eats $5M of his remaining salary.

Better case scenario: O'Day walks to another team and we get another pick.

Best case scenario: O's re-sign O'Day to a team friendly 4/$28M.

I am probably wrong, but all the talk about comp picks got me thinking that we should not reject the idea out of hand.

I'm glad that I'm not the only one with this supposedly insane idea. I realize that baseball conventional wisdom holds that middle-late relievers are simply replaceable machine parts, easily replaced by AAA or even AAAA players. We've had this discussion before and I heartily disagree with this supposed wisdom. Proven, quality middle relievers such as O'Day are very valuable, especially with starters not pitching as many innings as they used to before. If nothing else, if DD won't sign him, then at least we get a comp pick.

[weams]

I'm glad that I'm not the only one with this supposedly insane idea. I realize that baseball conventional wisdom holds that middle-late relievers are simply replaceable machine parts, easily replaced by AAA or even AAAA players. We've had this discussion before and I heartily disagree with this supposed wisdom. Proven, quality middle relievers such as O'Day are very valuable, especially with starters not pitching as many innings as they used to before. If nothing else, if DD won't sign him, then at least we get a comp pick.

We won't do it. The Yankees got blasted for giving one to Robertson. That Said, I am personally all for it.

[Crazysilver03]

We won't do it. The Yankees got blasted for giving one to Robertson. That Said, I am personally all for it.

Got blasted for what? A QO? Who exactly blasted them when it was common knowledge they were going to?

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk