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Getting Ready To Raise the White Flag


Bahama O's Fan

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We're not going to lose. For some reason this team wins games like this. Schoop hits a big HR off Tanaka and we leave yankee stadium only losing 1 game in the standings.

Don't we have a bad record playing in day games?

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I hate to inform you, but we AREN"T competitive this year.

There are a lot of contenders competing for the likes of Price and Cueto. When those guys get sold there will be desperation buying. I think we all would be very surprised at the amount of talent our veteran FAs could haul in. The alternative is letting them walk after a failed season and getting god-knows-what for them with the extra draft picks.

We're four games back from the Wild Card. That's still relatively competitive. I know we're under .500, but the rest of the AL seems to be average too. I mean, this Yankee club isn't really that good, yet they're leading the division by a decent margin.

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You're probably going to take some heat for this post, but I have to stand by you.

I would never have thought that we would be in this position only 2 weeks ago, but it is now becoming painfully obvious that we aren't going to win the World Series this year. DD took the gamble last year and traded for Miller. The difference between seasons is that we had a legitimate shot at winning the WS last year. You are only fooling yourself if you think we can do that this year. We are more than one player away from playing at that level and we barely have the minor league talent to get one impact player.

I believe that DD could make a bold and profitable move by selling now. The lack of sellers and plethora of contenders would mean that our veterans could haul in some serious prospects.

Anyhow, I know this isn't going to happen, but typing this seems therapeutic.

Being "active on the trade front" doesn't have to mean buying, ya? :cool:

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Losing tomorrow makes it likely that we are sellers, but all depends on how many games back we are at this time next week. We could lose tomorrow and sweep the Rays and be back to five games out, so you just never know. IMO if we are 6 games out or less there will be no fire sale. If we are 7 out or more I think you have to sell on July 31 you have to sell.

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I hate to inform you, but we AREN"T competitive this year.

There are a lot of contenders competing for the likes of Price and Cueto. When those guys get sold there will be desperation buying. I think we all would be very surprised at the amount of talent our veteran FAs could haul in. The alternative is letting them walk after a failed season and getting god-knows-what for them with the extra draft picks.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

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Losing tomorrow makes it likely that we are sellers, but all depends on how many games back we are at this time next week. We could lose tomorrow and sweep the Rays and be back to five games out, so you just never know. IMO if we are 6 games out or less there will be no fire sale. If we are 7 out or more I think you have to sell on July 31 you have to sell.

I don't think winning or losing the game tomorrow is going to make a difference. DD is not going to go all out and sell. Maybe small pieces but none of our big names. We will stand pat and keep who we have most likely, if we keep losing.

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We're four games back from the Wild Card. That's still relatively competitive. I know we're under .500, but the rest of the AL seems to be average too. I mean, this Yankee club isn't really that good, yet they're leading the division by a decent margin.

Yes, but we are the 4th team in line with the Indians and the Rangers sitting right behind us. It gets to the point where the numbers don't look daunting, but you end up counting on too many other teams to falter while you need to surge.

Besides, I don't want to mortgage our future for the chance to get a cheap wild card slot in a weak league. Again, if we were contending for the World Series like we were last year, then I say we should go for it. However, at this pace we will be lucky to get in and win our one wild card game. I think that it is now better to be bold and sell.

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I am starting to feel the season is lost too. But I don't think they will sell, at least not for anything useful. We are just as well getting picks back from the QO guys. Nobody will give us anything of value for a rental. An EdRod type player would be the most we could expect.

If we wanted to fully rebuild around another team's top prospects, we would have to sell one of our guys that has years left, like Price and Samardjzia last year. Who do we have of that stature with 1+ years left? Maybe Hardy to the Mets or Pirates?

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I am starting to feel the season is lost too. But I don't think they will sell, at least not for anything useful. We are just as well getting picks back from the QO guys. Nobody will give us anything of value for a rental. An EdRod type player would be the most we could expect.

If we wanted to fully rebuild around another team's top prospects, we would have to sell one of our guys that has years left, like Price and Samardjzia last year. Who do we have of that stature with 1+ years left? Maybe Hardy to the Mets or Pirates?

I agree with you, but I have to say that if we can trade some of our guys then we could walk away with multiple EdRod types. I don't think that's a bad thing at all. The draft picks are going to be a crapshoot and if you walk away with EdRod types you at least have a decent chance of success.

I've heard several people question what kind of value our guys have. This is an amazing sellers market. Last year was too and look what the O's paid for Miller. He wasn't even a closer, just a setup guy (although a dominant one). DD all but said that he snatched up Miller just to keep him out of Detroit's hands. This kind of market ends up becoming like an auction and crazy things can happen at an auction.

All of this said - we DON"T have to sell any one of our players. If the offers don't come (although I think they will) then we can make the QO and take the pick. I think I might be more concerned that DD tries to remain a buyer and I think that could have very bad consequences for us down the road.

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If this team were say 5 or 6 games above .500 but appeared to be hitting their stride, then it might make sense to go and get some help. This team appears to be what their record says it is...they are not god awful but certainly not good.

All that said you do not give guys away for the sake of giving them away. If you could get something for Chen or Davis that would make it worth giving up the potential compensation pick then they should consider it. Lets be real here though, trading Chen and Davis for example is the PR equivalent of waving the white flag. That decision has real world financial implications for the organization. In a perfect world these decisions could be me made free of PR considerations but the reality is that PR factors ont the behavior of every MLB franchise. Its a reality of doing business.

Frankly of the guys we could potentially lose, Chen, O'Day and may be Davis are the only guys who I would miss (being generous including CD) or think have produced to the level their compensation.

All this talk about how bad we will be when these guys is gone is utter nonsense IMO. We may have a down year or two at most while they reshape the roster but their is a lot of money being freed up on guys who have not produced this year. That alone presents an opportunity to improve.

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If this team were say 5 or 6 games above .500 but appeared to be hitting their stride, then it might make sense to go and get some help. This team appears to be what their record says it is...they are not god awful but certainly not good.

All that said you do not give guys away for the sake of giving them away. If you could get something for Chen or Davis that would make it worth giving up the potential compensation pick then they should consider it. Lets be real here though, trading Chen and Davis for example is the PR equivalent of waving the white flag. That decision has real world financial implications for the organization. In a perfect world these decisions could be me made free of PR considerations but the reality is that PR factors ont the behavior of every MLB franchise. Its a reality of doing business.

Frankly of the guys we could potentially lose, Chen, O'Day and may be Davis are the only guys who I would miss (being generous including CD) or think have produced to the level their compensation.

All this talk about how bad we will be when these guys is gone is utter nonsense IMO. We may have a down year or two at most while they reshape the roster but their is a lot of money being freed up on guys who have not produced this year. That alone presents an opportunity to improve.

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Totally agree. We have a nice corps here to build around. I am still excited for the next several seasons and certainly don't feel like our window is closing and certainly don't feel like we are about to re-enter the pre 2012 abyss of losing.

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Yes, but we are the 4th team in line with the Indians and the Rangers sitting right behind us. It gets to the point where the numbers don't look daunting, but you end up counting on too many other teams to falter while you need to surge.

Besides, I don't want to mortgage our future for the chance to get a cheap wild card slot in a weak league. Again, if we were contending for the World Series like we were last year, then I say we should go for it. However, at this pace we will be lucky to get in and win our one wild card game. I think that it is now better to be bold and sell.

There's no such thing as a cheap Wild Card slot. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.

That said, I didn't necessarily disagree with your main point in that we shouldn't be buying up big pieces and mortgaging our future. Just saying that it would be wrong to say that we "aren't competitive". I also think selling Davis, Chen, etc would be a major mistake. The draft picks we could get for their departures will probably be worth more than what we would get for them right now.

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