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Starting Pitching in August (5.231 ERA, 5.811 ERA w/o Chen & Wilson)


TonySoprano

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For the month, 3/5 of the rotation has an ERA above 5.73, Gausman at 4.576, and people wonder what happened.

Ubaldo 6 GS, 34 IP, 24ER, 6.353

Gonzalez: 6 GS, 31.2 IP, 24 ER, 6.820 ERA

Gausman, 6 GS, 39.1 IP, 20 ER, 4.576 ERA

Chen, 5 GS, 31 IP, 10 ER, 2.903 ERA

Tillman, 4 GS, 22 IP. 14 ER, 5.727 ERA

Wilson, 1 GS, 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 2.350 ERA

That's scary considering Chen is halfway out the door. Other than KG who has room to grow, I have very little confidence in Tillman, Gonzalez, or Ubaldo in terms of getting any type of predictable or consistent performance from them.

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So what is the difference between this year and last? Can't be all the pitchers....something else is not right, got to be....

maybe as an organization we are allowing cutters now, but not good pitches:)

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Man those are some UGLY numbers. :(

So Fangraps might be right this year.

Fangraphs used the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections from two systems to rank which teams' starting rotations added the most value over replacements, and the Orioles came in 27th out of 30 teams with a total of 6.4 WAR. That’s the equivalent of one Clayton Kershaw.

Much of this has to do with a stat called Fielding-Independent Pitching, which uses home runs, walks, and strikeouts to project what a pitcher’s ERA would be with league-average defense behind him. Considering the Orioles’ pitchers are projected to be around league-average in strikeout and walk rates, it’s no surprise they’re low on the list.

Our own notion of them being better than this projection is also skewed by last year, when every Orioles pitcher’s actual ERA was way lower than their FIP. Miguel Gonzalez’ FIP of 4.83 was over a run and a half higher than his 3.21 ERA, Chris Tillman’s ERA of 3.34 was lower than his 4.01 FIP, and Bud Norris 4.22 FIP was cut in reality to a 3.65 ERA.

All of that takes into account the strong defense that should return this year, but you can’t blame any of those statistical formulas for not breaking their tried-and-true molds for an Orioles team that has managed to outperform it for years.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baltimore-sports-blog/bal-why-so-many-projection-systems-dont-like-the-2015-baltimore-orioles-20150406-story.html

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