Dan's Offseason Moves Part One: Cruz

[Rene88]

I disagree. Again, I think many OH posters have been slow to adjust to the reality of free agent prices and are still undervaluing the increased value of offensive performance in today's game. QUOTE]

Nailed it. His contract wasn't outrageous. Where are all these people outraged over the extra year for Jimenz? That has worked out so well....You gotta roll the dice some times and some times you got to pay for talent. Everyone in the clubhouse gelled with Cruz there.

Now having said that, our starting pitching has also cost us dearly this year. But 6 more wins (if you believe WAR) would put us much closer to the playoffs. Personally, I think he is worth more than that for the intangibles he brings. Just my opinion.

[Rene88]

Not a whole lot, except it was part of the entirety of dead money spent on nothing rather than spending on Cruz's 4th year.

Ill eat crow on Norris. A LOT Of posters on here wanted him traded. I thought he was a bulldog and never got the respect he deserved...

Ha!

But here is the thing...DD has to get SOME of these things right. He is failing on all fronts except for the depth front (which is important). He must improve. He also must be the big man and realize when his team doesn't have enough ammo for a playoff run and get pieces for the future when you can.

[Redskins Rick]

Not a whole lot, except it was part of the entirety of dead money spent on nothing rather than spending on Cruz's 4th year.

Maybe if they ante up and can afford Crush next season, because they didn't keep Cruz?

[Frobby]

DD gambled and lost with 7 players. He could have had a sure thing with Nelson Cruz, at least for the 1st two or three years of the contract (and gotten something for the 4th year). Better than spending dead money for absolutely nothing.

There is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball. The odds were against Cruz providing enough value to earn that contract. I'd certainly agree that in 2015 was likely to outproduce the corner outfielders we brought in here. But to me it's 20/20 hindsight to point to the players who didn't work out. There was not a reason to expect them to produce nothing. In fact, as SteveO pointed out in another thread, De Aza started producing a soon as he got traded to Boston (.860 OPS there). Sometimes, the breaks go against you.

[Rene88]

Maybe if they ante up and can afford Crush next season, because they didn't keep Cruz?

You really think that? I also think Cruz is much more consistent than Davis will ever be.

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[Can_of_corn]

You really think that? I also think Cruz is much more consistent than Davis will ever be.

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Davis is substantially younger and no where near the liability on defense.

[Frobby]

You really think that? I also think Cruz is much more consistent than Davis will ever be.

I'd rather have Davis at ages 30-32 than Cruz at ages 35-37. However, Davis' contract will probably be for a minimum of five years.

[Nevermore]

There is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball. The odds were against Cruz providing enough value to earn that contract. I'd certainly agree that in 2015 was likely to outproduce the corner outfielders we brought in here. But to me it's 20/20 hindsight to point to the players who didn't work out. There was not a reason to expect them to produce nothing. In fact, as SteveO pointed out in another thread, De Aza started producing a soon as he got traded to Boston (.860 OPS there). Sometimes, the breaks go against you.

Okay, you are correct. "Sure thing" wasn't the correct wording. I should have said something like "very likely."

However, Cruz outperforming the players brought in for the 2015 season could very well have been the difference between the Os getting into the WS (or at least deep into the playoffs) and the Os being an also-ran. Same for 2016 if DD brings in similar players.

And as I said before, not all players brought in will work out. Perhaps 1 or 2 of the players DD brought in would wind up being DFA'd because that's to be expected; it's a reasonable chance to take. But having 7 players brought in and ending up being DFA'd is a bit much, I would say. Better to have given the 4th year to Cruz.

[Frobby]

Okay, you are correct. "Sure thing" wasn't the correct wording. I should have said something like "very likely."

However, Cruz outperforming the players brought in for the 2015 season could very well have been the difference between the Os getting into the WS (or at least deep into the playoffs) and the Os being an also-ran. Same for 2016 if DD brings in similar players.

And as I said before, not all players brought in will work out. Perhaps 1 or 2 of the players DD brought in would wind up being DFA'd because that's to be expected; it's a reasonable chance to take. But having 7 players brought in and ending up being DFA'd is a bit much, I would say. Better to have given the 4th year to Cruz.

The way our pitching has been this year, I don't think we'd have been a serious World Series contender even with Cruz. But we'd have been a playoff team, probably.

I've posted it a few times, but if you look at the projections made by PECOTA, ZiPS etc. for De Aza/Snider/Lough/Young/Pearce, that collective group was generally expected to post an OPS in the .720-.740 range. Instead they were at a bit under .640. And of course, De Aza began hitting as soon as he left us. So, I feel Dan got really unlucky with that group, even though it is not surprising that at least some of them underperformed, and even though they would not have replaced Cruz's production even if they had performed as expected.

[jjnono]

Maybe if they ante up and can afford Crush next season, because they didn't keep Cruz?

The pursuit or non-pursuit of Davis is going to be an off-season lightning rod and point of contention around here, I'm pretty much guaranteeing...

[o'sfansince1970]

At this point it's easy to say resigning Hardy was a mistake and using that money to sign Cruz very smart. He made the guys hitting around him better. I think JJ is going to fade from here. I've gone full circle on resigning CD. No way to replace his production. The Ks are tough to take but he gets his HRs and RBIs.

[sportsfan8703]

Ill eat crow on Norris. A LOT Of posters on here wanted him traded. I thought he was a bulldog and never got the respect he deserved...

Ha!

But here is the thing...DD has to get SOME of these things right. He is failing on all fronts except for the depth front (which is important). He must improve. He also must be the big man and realize when his team doesn't have enough ammo for a playoff run and get pieces for the future when you can.

He's certainly tried everything. Literally.

1. De Aza

2. Snider

3. Young

4. Lough

5. E.Cabrera

6. Parades

7. Reimold

8. Flaherty at first

9. Parmelee

10. Lake

11. Clevenger

12. Urrutia

Walker even DH'd for a game. And people in this thread say looking at the Cruz contract is complicated. Giving Cruz that deal would have been easier and cost just as much.

[Nevermore]

The way our pitching has been this year, I don't think we'd have been a serious World Series contender even with Cruz. But we'd have been a playoff team, probably.

I've posted it a few times, but if you look at the projections made by PECOTA, ZiPS etc. for De Aza/Snider/Lough/Young/Pearce, that collective group was generally expected to post an OPS in the .720-.740 range. Instead they were at a bit under .640. And of course, De Aza began hitting as soon as he left us. So, I feel Dan got really unlucky with that group, even though it is not surprising that at least some of them underperformed, and even though they would not have replaced Cruz's production even if they had performed as expected.

Exactly. All of those guys that DD brought in would not have replaced Cruz's production even if they had performed as expected. It was not just bad luck, it was poor evaluations. Thinking that the Orioles didn't need Cruz's production was a huge miscalculation.

[SteveO]

I'd rather have Davis at ages 30-32 than Cruz at ages 35-37. However, Davis' contract will probably be for a minimum of five years.

Respect your opinion so curious what you think. If the price tag to be in the game in terms of signing CD is 6/120-150 would you take that leap?

My opinion is no. First I think its unlikely that CD produces enough on the back end of that type of deal to justify it. I also think that before you hand out that kind of money to CD, you better lock up the one true superstar you have in Manny. In six or seven years you can still be building a team around Manny, I doubt that can be said of CD. If you have to let him go, that is fine so long as you spend that money smart and I can think of nothing smarter for this franchise long term than giving it to Manny. I guess one could argue they could do both but I think realistically, this team needs some flexibility to fill other roles, they do not have the farm system at present to do that so they need the financial flexibility.

[Babypowder]

This poll is hilarious. An overwhelming majority were against the deal when it was signed, as is evidenced in the same poll at the actual time the deal was signed.

Then he went and had his best year ever and people are acting like they knew it was mistake all along and getting indignant about it. It's quite entertaining.