O's have Three draft picks in the top 26

[mdbdotcom]

Now that the QO's have been made, we can see a little more clearly how the O's draft could be effected.

A record 20 players were given Qualifying Offers. They have until Friday at 5pm to accept or reject them. If no player accepts the QO, and none has ever done so, there will be 20 free agents who would cost the first 10 teams to draft their 2nd round pick and all the other teams their 1st round pick.

Last off-season, five teams gave up their first round pick to sign one of the 12 QO'd free agents. With 20 available this year, it's reasonable to predict that number will increase to 7 or 8.

If 7 teams give up their first round pick, that would leave only 23 teams drafting in the first round. The Padres, Mariners, and White Sox all will draft before the O's, and each has one player who has been offered a QO. If all three are signed by another team by the draft, they would get the 24th, 25th, and 26th players in the draft.

The O's would get the 27th player in the draft as their first compensation pick. If Davis, Chen, and Wieters are all signed by other teams, the O's would have picks #15, 27, 28, and 29.

But, I think this is a fairly conservative scenario. A more optimisitic scenario is that 10 teams give up their first round picks, the White Sox re-sign Samardzija, the Mariners re-sign Iwakuma, and Upton signs with someone else. In this scenario, the first round would have only 20 teams and the Orioles would have the #22, 23, and 24 selections, in addition to #15.

One question the O's will have to answer is whether or not it is worth it to give up the #15 slot in the draft when they will be getting other picks so close. We know what Weams would do, but what about the Orioles?

[Crazysilver03]

Nevermind

[mdbdotcom]

The flawed logic here is that none of the worst 10 teams sign someone, giving up their 2nd round pick.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

I don't understand what this means or how it points out a flaw. If 7 of the top 10 choosing teams sign a QO'd player and another 7 of the rest of the teams sign a QO'd player, that's 7 first round picks given up.

[Number5]

Now that the QO's have been made, we can see a little more clearly how the O's draft could be effected.

A record 20 players were given Qualifying Offers. They have until Friday at 5pm to accept or reject them. If no player accepts the QO, and none has ever done so, there will be 20 free agents who would cost the first 10 teams to draft their 2nd round pick and all the other teams their 1st round pick.

Last off-season, five teams gave up their first round pick to sign one of the 12 QO'd free agents. With 20 available this year, it's reasonable to predict that number will increase to 7 or 8.

If 7 teams give up their first round pick, that would leave only 23 teams drafting in the first round. The Padres, Mariners, and White Sox all will draft before the O's, and each has one player who has been offered a QO. If all three are signed by another team by the draft, they would get the 24th, 25th, and 26th players in the draft.

The O's would get the 27th player in the draft as their first compensation pick. If Davis, Chen, and Wieters are all signed by other teams, the O's would have picks #15, 27, 28, and 29.

But, I think this is a fairly conservative scenario. A more optimisitic scenario is that 10 teams give up their first round picks, the White Sox re-sign Samardzija, the Mariners re-sign Iwakuma, and Upton signs with someone else. In this scenario, the first round would have only 20 teams and the Orioles would have the #22, 23, and 24 selections, in addition to #15.

One question the O's will have to answer is whether or not it is worth it to give up the #15 slot in the draft when they will be getting other picks so close. We know what Weams would do, but what about the Orioles?

Are you sure that we would get three picks in a row? Are you saying that after we get our first compensation pick, the other teams that lose a QO free agent that draft behind us don't each get a pick before we get our 2nd compensation pick? I don't know, but it somehow doesn;t seem right to me that we would get 3 before other teams get 1, so I am asking if you know this for sure.

[25 Nuggets]

It's all fine and good but the Orioles still have to select the right players and develop them. I think they'd be lucky to get two out of four.

[weams]

I don't understand what this means or how it points out a flaw. If 7 of the top 10 choosing teams sign a QO'd player and another 7 of the rest of the teams sign a QO'd player, that's 7 first round picks given up.

I agree. It is.

[weams]

It's all fine and good but the Orioles still have to select the right players and develop them. I think they'd be lucky to get two out of four.

Random luck would pay a dividend here. You don't have to be good. You just can't be bad.

[weams]

It's all fine and good but the Orioles still have to select the right players and develop them. I think they'd be lucky to get two out of four.

One out of four at a MLB regular level, let's say a Schoop. Or a Tillman. Gives you far more surplus value than any of the Main FAs would based on what you would have to pay to get them. And any of the affordable ones are not worth a number 15 pick. Let alone multiple top 20 picks.

[weams]

Now that the QO's have been made, we can see a little more clearly how the O's draft could be effected.

A record 20 players were given Qualifying Offers. They have until Friday at 5pm to accept or reject them. If no player accepts the QO, and none has ever done so, there will be 20 free agents who would cost the first 10 teams to draft their 2nd round pick and all the other teams their 1st round pick.

Last off-season, five teams gave up their first round pick to sign one of the 12 QO'd free agents. With 20 available this year, it's reasonable to predict that number will increase to 7 or 8.

If 7 teams give up their first round pick, that would leave only 23 teams drafting in the first round. The Padres, Mariners, and White Sox all will draft before the O's, and each has one player who has been offered a QO. If all three are signed by another team by the draft, they would get the 24th, 25th, and 26th players in the draft.

The O's would get the 27th player in the draft as their first compensation pick. If Davis, Chen, and Wieters are all signed by other teams, the O's would have picks #15, 27, 28, and 29.

But, I think this is a fairly conservative scenario. A more optimisitic scenario is that 10 teams give up their first round picks, the White Sox re-sign Samardzija, the Mariners re-sign Iwakuma, and Upton signs with someone else. In this scenario, the first round would have only 20 teams and the Orioles would have the #22, 23, and 24 selections, in addition to #15.

One question the O's will have to answer is whether or not it is worth it to give up the #15 slot in the draft when they will be getting other picks so close. We know what Weams would do, but what about the Orioles?

BTW, chances are that it would be four of the top 40. Not 30.

[25 Nuggets]

One out of four at a MLB regular level, let's say a Schoop. Or a Tillman. Gives you far more surplus value than any of the Main FAs would based on what you would have to pay to get them. And any of the affordable ones are not worth a number 15 pick. Let alone multiple top 20 picks.

That's still only one player. The team has to compensate for lost talent elsewhere or it's a net loss.

Or, they could draft and develop better.

[weams]

That's still only one player. The team has to compensate for lost talent elsewhere or it's a net loss.

Or, they could draft and develop better.

The players are gone. They can be bought at full value. Leaving no real chance at surplus value.

[weams]

They could draft and develop better.

There is a good possibility that this regime might.

[25 Nuggets]

There is a good possibility that this regime might.

Obviously I hope they do. I haven't heard much buzz from the most recent draft.

[weams]

Obviously I hope they do. I haven't heard much buzz from the most recent draft.

One in the top 30.

[Number5]

Does anyone know the answer to my question? Do we get three picks in a row, or one, followed by one each the teams drafting behind us that lose a QO FA, then our second, then those other teams' second (if any), then our third. With 20 QO FAs, this could end up being quite a difference.