Japanese RHP Kenta Maeda: Fangraphs - How much should you pay?

[Roll Tide]

Would the Orioles post $20 million ?

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25387713/mlb-hot-stove-japanese-rhp-kenta-maeda-asks-to-be-posted

No way ... The Os are cheap

[25 Nuggets]

Yes' date=' Chen's replacement does have to be from an Asian country...[/quote']

They all pitch alike to me.

[Il BuonO]

It was the old process which the organization apparently boycotted. The new one seems to be something we would consider.

How so? I mean, what's changed in their approach that now they're willing to consider it?

[El Gordo]

Ok I am wrong. If multiple teams post $20m he is allowed to negotiate with all of those teams.

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That make more sense.

[El Gordo]

How so? I mean, what's changed in their approach that now they're willing to consider it?

20M cap?

[sportsfan8703]

With all things considered, wouldn't it be cheaper and safer to just re-sign Chen. Bottom line is that we won't do neither. That's cool. But get somebody.

[OriolesMagic83]

Yes' date=' Chen's replacement does have to be from an Asian country...[/quote']

Doesn't necessarily have to be Asian, but does have to have an interpreter. Where is the mlb interpreter union?

[weams]

Have the Orioles ever posted for any players? It may not be public knowledge, but I don't recall them posting anyone.

They posted for Park.

[weams]

With all things considered, wouldn't it be cheaper and safer to just re-sign Chen. Bottom line is that we won't do neither. That's cool. But get somebody.

Cheaper? He's getting 65 to 80. Kenta is getting more?

[Il BuonO]

20M cap?

In the past their philosophy has been any posting fee of any kind was anathema. At least that was my understanding. If it's changed, great.

[TheWall]

If everyone that bids $20 million gets to negotiate, seems like it'd be a good idea to throw our hat in the ring.

Unless we don't believe he is capable of succeeding in the MLB.

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[El Gordo]

With all things considered, wouldn't it be cheaper and safer to just re-sign Chen. Bottom line is that we won't do neither. That's cool. But get somebody.

Not for 20M AAV.

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-should-teams-spend-on-kenta-maeda/

Maeda is two years younger than the actual Zimmermann, who would get a $105 million contract using the same set of assumptions we applied to Maeda above and beginning with Zimmermann’s projection of roughly three wins next year. But Zimmermann would be a top-tier outcome for Maeda. Clay Davenport has translations for the Japanese leagues in 2014, and his MLB equivalent numbers for Maeda are a little depressing: a 4.09 ERA with a 5.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. That would make him more like a younger Yovani Gallardo, who the crowd says will get $56 million over four years.

Maeda is not the player that Tanaka was. Going into his posting, Tanaka’s league-indexed strikeout minus walk rate was 75% better than the one Maeda just showed over the last three years. Tanaka’s signature pitch, the splitter, is better than Maeda’s slider, and he has more velocity, and he showed a better walk rate. The contract should reflect those facts.

It’s guesswork any way you slice it, and it’s fair to wonder what Maeda himself is expecting. Masahiro Tanaka got so much more than the numbers we are talking about here (seven years, $155 million). But if his new American team gives Maeda any more than six years and $85 million, they’ll be paying only for his upside with no reflection of the risk he represents. A better contract would pay him like a Porcello or Gallardo and hope for a Zimmermann.