Trumbo an Oriole (For Clevenger Done Deal)

[FlipTheBird]

If you don't like this move on the belief that you think it takes the O's out of the CD race, that's fine.

If you don't like it for any other reason, I'm confused. The Orioles got a power bat for very little investment (Steve Clevenger is a journeyman backup catcher). Trumbo has show that, when healthy and playing everyday, he's capable of 30-35 HR power.

A few years back people would have been salivating over a move like this - getting a guy with pop that can start at multiple positions for a guy that's not a prospect and wasn't even on the roster for most of last year. I have no idea why the tide's changed.

[ricowiz]

I think Seattle played us like a fiddle. They traded a guy who should have been non-tendered, is barely above a replacement player (0.8 WAR last year, -1.1 the year before) and they use that money to sign a guy we should have signed, Aoki. Are we really going to pay Trumbo $9 million dollars?

We are still a one dimensional team thus far, all power and strikeouts, low OBP. I hope DD has more tricks up his sleeve than this, because this barely moves the needle in my opinion.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I don't think anyone should be against this move by itself. The worry is if

1. It's the answer to 1B

2. It's the "power" bat we are adding

3. His money stops us from spending elsewhere (like SP)

[ricowiz]

I don't think anyone should be against this move by itself. The worry is if

1. It's the answer to 1B

2. It's the "power" bat we are adding

3. His money stops us from spending elsewhere (like SP)

We will be paying Trumbo and Wieters $25 million dollars combined. Thats a large chunk of the budget for average production

[jcarm]

I think Seattle played us like a fiddle. They traded a guy who should have been non-tendered, is barely above a replacement player (0.8 WAR last year, -1.1 the year before) and they use that money to sign a guy we should have signed, Aoki. Are we really going to pay Trumbo $9 million dollars?

We are still a one dimensional team thus far, all power and strikeouts, low OBP. I hope DD has more tricks up his sleeve than this, because this barely moves the needle in my opinion.

He actually had 1.6 WAR last season .8 each with Arizona and Seattle. The -1.1 in 2014 is an outlier based on his career:

2.9 in 2011

2.5 in 2012

2.1 in 2013

-1.1 in 2014

1.6 in 2015

There is a good chance he will be worth the $9 million the O's will likely pay him in 2016.

[24fps]

I think Seattle played us like a fiddle. They traded a guy who should have been non-tendered, is barely above a replacement player (0.8 WAR last year, -1.1 the year before) and they use that money to sign a guy we should have signed, Aoki. Are we really going to pay Trumbo $9 million dollars?

We are still a one dimensional team thus far, all power and strikeouts, low OBP. I hope DD has more tricks up his sleeve than this, because this barely moves the needle in my opinion.

Why did acquiring Trumbo preclude the Orioles from also signing Aoki? You seem to be implying that.

[canonfaz]

I think he will really like hitting in the AL East ballparks most of the year.

[Tony-OH]

Over the last four years...

Player	Pos	Years Range	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/PA	HR/PA	RBI/PA	SB/PA	BB/SOChris Davis	1B	2011-2015	MLB	645	2321	368	597	121	1	164	431	11	8	264	812	34	34	1	20	24	.257	.339	.522	861	0.138	0.062	0.162	0.004	0.33Mark Trumbo	1B	2011-2015	MLB	682	2539	315	638	118	10	131	407	20	14	179	678	10	19	0	16	67	.251	.301	.460	761	0.114	0.047	0.147	0.007	0.26

If Trumbo is going to cost me $9 million and in a walk year (where players normally have good years) and Davis is going to cost me upwards of $25 million for 6 or more years, I don't see a $16 million difference. Davis is clearly the better player, but Trumbo might be a decent value as long as we don't have to play him in LF where his dWAR will drag his value down.

BTW, Trumbo has slashed .300/.375/.550/.925 in Camden Yards albeit in a SSS of 48 PAs.

He cost us our 3rd catcher. I like this deal.

[Tony-OH]

We will be paying Trumbo and Wieters $25 million dollars combined. Thats a large chunk of the budget for average production

They screwed up with Wieters, no doubt, but it's water under the bridge at this point and they need to keep adding pieces. If Trumbo is a security blanket for the loss of Davis, the Orioles could definitely do worse.

[canonfaz]

I think he will really like hitting in the AL East ballparks most of the year.

Not a huge sample size, but interesting nonetheless.

	        G	GS	PA      HR      OPSBAL-Camden 	10	9	39	1	0.599BOS-Fenway Pk	10	10	48	3	0.925NYY-Yankeestd	15	14	59	4	0.813TBR-Tropicana	9	8	33	2	0.848TOR-Rogers Ctr	14	13	57	6	1.026

[ricowiz]

Why did acquiring Trumbo preclude the Orioles from also signing Aoki? You seem to be implying that.

I was implying we helped Seattle sign Aoki by clearing salary for them

[Herman]

So the Orioles brought in another high strikeout guy. Wonderful. This is a good move if and only if they add a couple more pieces to balance out the lineup and don't cheap out with the rotation. I thought Zimmerman would have been a good fit.

[Herman]

I speculated a left-handed pitcher. Jon Shepherd speculated Hultzen. There had been noise when he was DFA'd.

They had a left handed pitcher but they traded him to a division rival to rent Andrew Miller

[PaulFolk]

He actually had 1.6 WAR last season .8 each with Arizona and Seattle. The -1.1 in 2014 is an outlier based on his career:

2.9 in 2011

2.5 in 2012

2.1 in 2013

-1.1 in 2014

1.6 in 2015

Agreed. 2014 was an outlier. Trumbo had injury problems that year (limited to 88 games) and it was his only full year in the National League, where he didn't have the DH as a fallback option, so his poor defense dragged down his overall value.

As long as the O's keep Trumbo at 1B/DH instead of putting him in the outfield, I think it's safe to say he'll have positive value overall in 2016. Not a ton, but some.

[PaulFolk]

BTW, Trumbo has slashed .300/.375/.550/.925 in Camden Yards albeit in a SSS of 48 PAs.

Those are his numbers at Fenway Park. His Camden Yards stats aren't good -- .200/.256/.343/.599, albeit in an even smaller sample size of 39 PAs.