KATOH likes Sisco, Mancini and Reyes

[Frobby]

KATOH is a projection system devised by fangraphs contributor Chris Mitchell that projects major league success based on minor league stats. A primer on that system can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/

Mitchell just posted the top 100 prospects based on KATOH career WAR projections. Three Orioles made the list:

22. Chance Sisco 9.7 WAR

42. Trey Mancini 6.4 WAR

49. Jomar Reyes 6.0 WAR

Other notables:

64. Josh Hader 5.1 WAR

71. Zach Davies 4.6 WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/

The primer on KATOH had some pretty interesting general findings:

-Strikeout rate matters a lot for hitters, especially when they're in the low minors.

-Walk rate matters very little for hitters, especially when they're in the low minors. For hitters in Rookie ball, I found no evidence that walk rate is predictive at all.

-BABIP matters more for hitters in the low minors than for hitters in the high minors.

-Age matters more for hitters in the low minors than for hitters in the high minors.

-Height matters more for hitters in the low minors than for hitters in the high minors.

-Strikeout rate matters more than walk rate for pitchers, but only slightly.

-Pre-professional background matters more for pitchers in the low minors than for pitchers in the high minors.

There is lots of other interesting stuff in the primer -- it's worth a read.

I should add that one of our posters, skanar, developed a system a few years ago that is similar to KATOH.

[TheWall]

That's significantly more optimistic than most evaluations of our farm system.

3 in the top 50 with Bundy / Harvey excluded due to injury.

Is anyone here that high on Cisco? I know he's advanced for his age, but what is his ceiling? Any player comps?

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[Tryptamine]

That's significantly more optimistic than most evaluations of our farm system.

3 in the top 50 with Bundy / Harvey excluded due to injury.

Is anyone here that high on Cisco? I know he's advanced for his age, but what is his ceiling? Any player comps?

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Remember these aren't prospect rankings. God knows Albert Almora isn't the 8th best prospect in the game. Anyways, while fun to look at, I question an extremely large amount of these. Most Glaringly is Steven Matz only having 4fWAR by age 28. Well he's only 24 and only has 3.4 to go which I would guess he'll get this year alone.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Does his system include defense? I'm assuming it's just offense and assumes average defense at the projected position, which is why Sisco is so high. Sisco certainly profiles to be a very good hitter for a catcher, his question is whether or not he can actually catch, because the drop-off in defensive value from that position to nay other he could conceivably play is obviously immense.

[DrungoHazewood]

Does his system include defense? I'm assuming it's just offense and assumes average defense at the projected position, which is why Sisco is so high. Sisco certainly profiles to be a very good hitter for a catcher, his question is whether or not he can actually catch, because the drop-off in defensive value from that position to nay other he could conceivably play is obviously immense.

If Cisco ends up as a 1B/DH his value evaporates.

[Frobby]

Does his system include defense? I'm assuming it's just offense and assumes average defense at the projected position, which is why Sisco is so high. Sisco certainly profiles to be a very good hitter for a catcher, his question is whether or not he can actually catch, because the drop-off in defensive value from that position to nay other he could conceivably play is obviously immense.

His system does not include defense, and your point is a good one.

[DrungoHazewood]

His system does not include defense, and your point is a good one.

It does include defensive position, but not aptitude. He admits it's a flaw, but has no good way to correct.

[Stotle]

I think this is interesting. Good to have prospects on this list.

[Ohfan67]

Thanks for sharing Frobby.

According to this system, the Dodgers are stocked.

[Frobby]

Thanks for sharing Frobby.

According to this system, the Dodgers are stocked.

Our AL East rivals:

Rays: Bauers (7), Snell (41), Robertson (67), Faria (74), Richard (98), Honeywell (100).

Red Sox: Dever (23), Travis (37).

Yankees: Gamel (55).

Blue Jays: Teeley (85).

I wouldn't put too much stock in KATOH, but it's fun to look at.

[Can_of_corn]

It does include defensive position, but not aptitude. He admits it's a flaw, but has no good way to correct.

So of the three players one might not stay at Catcher and one is almost assuredly not going to stick at Third.

Kinda takes the bloom off the rose.

[Frobby]

So of the three players one might not stay at Catcher and one is almost assuredly not going to stick at Third.

Kinda takes the bloom off the rose.

A little, but there are probably lots of players in the minors who are playing positions they won't end up playing. In any event, I'm just happy to see some of our guys on any list, no matter what the holes are.

[Stotle]

So of the three players one might not stay at Catcher and one is almost assuredly not going to stick at Third.

Kinda takes the bloom off the rose.

You know what Andre 3000 always says....

[Can_of_corn]

You know what Andre 3000 always says....

Hey yah?

[Stotle]

Hey yah?

"One is in the air and one is in the chamber; y'all ask me what the [heck] I'm doin'? I'm releasing anger."