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webbrick2010's Mike Leake threads

webbrick2010

By webbrick2010
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I don't see him as a backend starter. He's roughly equivalent to Chen, but younger. I had predicted 5/$80 mm for Chen earlier this offseason, but now I think he may get a little more.
I wouldn't say equivalent to Chen.

Leake is average. As average as it gets. ERA+ last 4 years: 90, 112, 99, 106

Chen is above average and trending the right direction. ERA+ last 4 years: 105, 100, 111, 124.

Both have a been healthy.

The difference to me is 2 years in age and style. Leake gets grounders, Chen not so much.

I won't be surprised to see Chen sign for 5/100 after this. Maybe 4 years if he gets more AAV.

But he did not cost a pick. So Chen may not be worth more.
Also, Leake was an average pitcher in a .475 league. Chen an average-ish pitcher in the .525 league.
Leake's career 3.88 ERA in the NL Central does not compare well with Chen's 3.72 in the NL East. Leake put up 3.70 the last two years vs 3.34 and 3.54 for Chen. Chen has the better K rate and BB rate. I don't think it's a close comparison.

By saying Leake was "roughly equivalent" I didn't mean to say he was "every bit as good" as Chen. I was just quibbling with calling Leake a backend starter. FWIW, over the four years Chen has been in MLB, there are only 56 starters who have thrown 600 innings -- fewer than 2 per team. Chen ranks 33rd at 9.5 fWAR, Leake ranks 45th at 7.4 fWAR. So yeah, Chen is better, but there haven't been that many pitchers as consistently decent as Leake. Also, weams has a good point about how the fact that Chen costs a pick may make the two of them pretty equivalent in the marketplace.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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By saying Leake was "roughly equivalent" I didn't mean to say he was "every bit as good" as Chen. I was just quibbling with calling Leake a backend starter. FWIW, over the four years Chen has been in MLB, there are only 56 starters who have thrown 600 innings -- fewer than 2 per team. Chen ranks 33rd at 9.5 fWAR, Leake ranks 45th at 7.4 fWAR. So yeah, Chen is better, but there haven't been that many pitchers as consistently decent as Leake. Also, weams has a good point about how the fact that Chen costs a pick may make the two of them pretty equivalent in the marketplace.

It's fair to call Leake a #3 pitcher, but on a good staff he gets pushed back. It'll be interesting to see where the Cardinals slot him since they have a stable of pitchers who are better, but only when healthy.

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VeveJones007 Hangout Veteran Council

VeveJones007

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We can always count on webbrick2010 to look on the sunny side.

I do think Leake was an appealing option and I'm sorry he's off the board.

I'm not. Kazmir is a realistic and decent option for the O's, so now the Cards and A's are out on him. It also pretty much rules them out for Davis (even though they already said as much).

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Why are the A's out on Kazmir?

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They got Henderson Alvarez instead. That's the thinking. However:

Oakland A's still after Scott Kazmir following Henderson Alvarez signing

The Oakland Athletics are still seeking Scott Kazmir's services even after the reported signing of Henderson Alvarez, according to CSN Bay Area's Joe Stiglich. Stiglich writes, "A source with knowledge of the situation said Oakland is still in the running to sign Kazmir, one of the top starters left on the open market." The Bay Area News Group's John Hickey reports Kazmir "is amenable to a return to Oakland."
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VeveJones007 Hangout Veteran Council

VeveJones007

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Why are the A's out on Kazmir?

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Per Rosenthal

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-alex-gordon-hot-stove-league-122115

The Athletics’ reported agreement with free-agent righty Henderson Alvarez on a one-year, $4.25 million contract takes them out of play for free-agent lefty Scott Kazmir, sources say.

The A’s can control Alvarez through 2017, and he will compete for a spot in the rotation with two other pitchers coming off injuries, right-handers Jesse Hahn and Jarrod Parker.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Why are the A's out on Kazmir?

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They say they are out after Alvarez

The A’s one-year, $4.25MM deal with Henderson Alvarez takes them out of the mix for free agent Scott Kazmir, sources tell Rosenthal.

MLBTR

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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The thread title should be "We should have PICKED Mike Leake." What a disaster the 2009 draft was. Hobgood for us, rather than Leake, or Shelby Miller or Drew Storen or even Zack Wheeler, and certainly not that Trout guy picked at #25 in the 2009 first round who has turned out pretty well I've heard. There is a bunch of luck involved at getting good players, but we had none of it during that draft, for sure.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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The thread title should be "We should have PICKED Mike Leake." What a disaster the 2009 draft was. Hobgood for us, rather than Leake, or Shelby Miller or Drew Storen or even Zack Wheeler, and certainly not that Trout guy picked at #25 in the 2009 first round who has turned out pretty well I've heard. There is a bunch of luck involved at getting good players, but we had none of it during that draft, for sure.

In Andy and Joe Jordan we trust.

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