Not so fast when calling Manny a 30m/yr player

[weams]

All teams take full advantage of the pre-arb system. It is the only way the can put pressure on to extend.

[winkies]

All teams take full advantage of the pre-arb system. It is the only way the can put pressure on to extend.

True, very true. Hasn't Bryce Harper been making multi millions though for a few years pre-arb? And I doubt it will matter though, he will probably hit FA.

[Frobby]

True, very true. Hasn't Bryce Harper been making multi millions though for a few years pre-arb? And I doubt it will matter though, he will probably hit FA.

Harper's situation is a bit unusual. Boras claimed he and the Nats had an oral agreement that Harper would be arbitration eligible in 2015. The Nats disputed that. They avoided arbitrating that issue by agreeing on a 2-year deal where Harper got $2.5 mm in 2015 and will get $5 mm in 2016. Harper lost out badly in that deal, in that he'd be making considerably more than $5 mm, maybe more than $10 mm, in 2016 if he was arbitrating this year.

[Crazysilver03]

True, very true. Hasn't Bryce Harper been making multi millions though for a few years pre-arb? And I doubt it will matter though, he will probably hit FA.

Harper's situation is a bit unusual. Boras claimed he and the Nats had an oral agreement that Harper would be arbitration eligible in 2015. The Nats disputed that. They avoided arbitrating that issue by agreeing on a 2-year deal where Harper got $5 mm in 2015 and will get $7 mm in 2016. Harper didn't gain much in the end because he might have gotten $12 mm in arbitration for 2016 after the year he just had. I'm

Harper also signed a major league deal as a draftee whereas Machado took a minor league deal.

[DrungoHazewood]

Exactly. I cannot fault the O's for taking full advantage of the pre arb system.

Yet at the same time I don't think Machado gives **** about it being the system. Any player who's underpaid by about 30 million dollars tires of the system.

All good players are underpaid until they have more than six years of service time. All of them. And many/most free agents are overpaid, at least from the perspective of the average salary for a certain level of production. When we quote $7M/win or whatever the going rate is we talk about those players eligible for free agency. The real number including all MLB players is much less. If free agency occured earlier in a career the $/win number would go down because revenues would remain the same.

[Frobby]

Harper also signed a major league deal as a draftee whereas Machado took a minor league deal.

Harper had 2.159 years of service time at the end of the 2014 season, compared to Manny's 2.056. Also, Harper's original deal called for him to earn a $1.5 mm salary in 2015, unlike Manny's minor league deal, which included a signing bonus but no stipulations as to major league salary. Here's the gist of the Harper dispute from last offseason:

Harper has logged enough service time to qualify for arbitration as a “Super 2,” a player who ranks in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three years of service time.

But Harper’s five-year major league draft contract, signed at the last minute before the deadline in August 2010, muddles whether he can become eligible for arbitration. Major league draft contracts are no longer allowed, but when they were, almost all of them included an opt-out clause that allowed players to enter the arbitration process rather than take the salary prescribed in their draft deal.

Given the choice, Harper would opt out of the deal and into arbitration. His draft deal stipulates he will earn $1.5 million in base salary in 2015. In arbitration, Harper would make around $2.5 million, according to estimates made at MLBTradeRumors.com.

But whether Harper can choose is in dispute. The Nationals contend that an opt-out clause was not included in Harper’s contract. Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, claims the Nationals orally agreed to include the clause at the midnight deadline in 2010.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2014/12/01/nationals-bryce-harper-could-land-in-grievance-hearing-this-month/

As I said, Harper would have been much better off if he hadn't disputed his $1.5 mm salary for 2015, and had arbitrated this year's salary, instead of settling the dispute by taking $7.5 mm for the two seasons. Of course, nobody knew he would have an MVP season in 2015 when he made that settlement.

[Stotle]

Harper had 2.159 years of service time at the end of the 2014 season, compared to Manny's 2.056. Also, Harper's original deal called for him to earn a $1.5 mm salary in 2015, unlike Manny's minor league deal, which included a signing bonus but no stipulations as to major league salary. Here's the gist of the Harper dispute from last offseason:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2014/12/01/nationals-bryce-harper-could-land-in-grievance-hearing-this-month/

As I said, Harper would have been much better off if he hadn't disputed his $1.5 mm salary for 2015, and had arbitrated this year's salary, instead of settling the dispute by taking $7.5 mm for the two seasons. Of course, nobody knew he would have an MVP season in 2015 when he made that settlement.

So, this will sound weird, but I think the situation based on the info at the time worked out okay. Given his injury issues early, his risk was that he would stay healthy, post big numbers, and do better in arbitration. In exchange for that upside (let's call it $15 MM) he received some stability in that 1) he was getting a guaranteed multi-million payday, and 2) he was setting a higher bar for threshold salary moving forward.

On the flip side, he locked in some minimum level bank knowing that should he stay healthy he had at least $100MM waiting for him in four years, and obviously the potential for much more.

In hindsight he lost out on maybe $15 MM in the short term. The way it likely plays out you might be talking about less than 5% of his FA deal.

I agree he would have been better off had he gone to arbitration, but in the grand scheme it probably means very little, financially.

[UpstateNYfan]

If I recall correctly that three years ago, Manny made a statement about him earning the minimum 500K, implying he was not happy about it during ST. If he follows in his mentor's path he will move on. I wonder if ARod looks back, whether he would have been happier staying in Seattle. Probably not, but a thought.

[Frobby]

So, this will sound weird, but I think the situation based on the info at the time worked out okay. Given his injury issues early, his risk was that he would stay healthy, post big numbers, and do better in arbitration. In exchange for that upside (let's call it $15 MM) he received some stability in that 1) he was getting a guaranteed multi-million payday, and 2) he was setting a higher bar for threshold salary moving forward.

On the flip side, he locked in some minimum level bank knowing that should he stay healthy he had at least $100MM waiting for him in four years, and obviously the potential for much more.

In hindsight he lost out on maybe $15 MM in the short term. The way it likely plays out you might be talking about less than 5% of his FA deal.

I agree he would have been better off had he gone to arbitration, but in the grand scheme it probably means very little, financially.

No question that if Harper stays healthy and has three more good years, the $15 mm (and it's probably more like $6-7 mm) will seem like rounding error. And while everyone knew harper's potential, there was nothing about his 2013-14 seasons that suggested his 2015 season was imminent.

[DrungoHazewood]

If I recall correctly that three years ago, Manny made a statement about him earning the minimum 500K, implying he was not happy about it during ST. If he follows in his mentor's path he will move on. I wonder if ARod looks back, whether he would have been happier staying in Seattle. Probably not, but a thought.

People keep saying this. But is there any substance here, or is it just a lot of speculation? I have my doubts that Manny regularly has lunch with ARod to discuss career goals and financial planning and life coaching. But what do I know?

[DrungoHazewood]

No question that if Harper stays healthy and has three more good years, the $15 mm (and it's probably more like $6-7 mm) will seem like rounding error. And while everyone knew harper's potential, there was nothing about his 2013-14 seasons that suggested his 2015 season was imminent.

I think anyone who has a four-win season at 19 could blow up on the league in a historic way at any moment. Heck, just being in the league and not totally failing at 19 gives a position player something like an even chance at a HOF career.

[Can_of_corn]

If I recall correctly that three years ago, Manny made a statement about him earning the minimum 500K, implying he was not happy about it during ST. If he follows in his mentor's path he will move on. I wonder if ARod looks back, whether he would have been happier staying in Seattle. Probably not, but a thought.

But Cal was Arod's mentor, why didn't he stay with Seattle?

Manny is far from the first 1-3 year player to complain about making the minimum. It is the way the system works and if the Orioles for some reason gifted him money that they didn't have to there is no evidence it would make signing him to an extension later easier or cheaper. What it would do is be used against the Orioles in arbitration.

[Frobby]

If I recall correctly that three years ago, Manny made a statement about him earning the minimum 500K, implying he was not happy about it during ST.

Yes, he did say something like "the system isn't really fair, but there's nothing I can do about it." But I don't think it has much impact on a decision he would have about an extension. He's made it very clear that he likes playing in Baltimore, so it's really just about the money, not any bruised feelings from 2 years ago.

[winkies]

If I recall correctly that three years ago, Manny made a statement about him earning the minimum 500K, implying he was not happy about it during ST. If he follows in his mentor's path he will move on. I wonder if ARod looks back, whether he would have been happier staying in Seattle. Probably not, but a thought.

I think it was before the 2014 season when he was verbally not happy about league minimum salary. Which is understandable because he had just won the platinum glove.

[Frobby]

I think anyone who has a four-win season at 19 could blow up on the league in a historic way at any moment. Heck, just being in the league and not totally failing at 19 gives a position player something like an even chance at a HOF career.

Yes, I know. We all expected Harper to break out at some point. But did I expect .330/.460/.649 in 2015? Uh, no. I think most Nats fans would have been very happy with .300/.375/.550 going into last season, which would have been a 70-point improvement on his career-best OPS.