Jump to content

Fangraphs: Baltimore's Dexter Fowler Opportunity


CaptainRedbeard

Recommended Posts

Exactly. We also have something rather rare: A very good offense and defense. Typically to have a great offense you sacrifice defense. We should win a lot of games when teams start their 4th and 5th starters!

I don't think you can stretch the definition of the words "very good" so that they accurately describe the probable outfield defense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 81
  • Created
  • Last Reply
It is going to be brutal if they spend all these resources this offseason and then they miss the playoffs.

Even a one and done WC game would be a failure.

I don't necessarily see it this way. First of all, we aren't likely to be signing these guys for only one year, and I see no reason why the O's could not be equally competitive in 2017. So if we narrowly missed the playoffs, I'd be disappointed but just in "wait 'till next year" mode.

What will be brutal is if the team does not do significantly better than last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't necessarily see it this way. First of all, we aren't likely to be signing these guys for only one year, and I see no reason why the O's could not be equally competitive in 2017. So if we narrowly missed the playoffs, I'd be disappointed but just in "wait 'till next year" mode.

What will be brutal is if the team does not do significantly better than last year.

I don't see a team with an older Hardy, Davis, O'Day, Jones, Ubaldo ect, ect as being likely to be better than the 2016 team. I also figure Britton will be gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see a team with an older Hardy, Davis, O'Day, Jones, Ubaldo ect, ect as being likely to be better than the 2016 team. I also figure Britton will be gone.

If Britton is gone, presumably the Orioles will have gotten some players of significant value in return. The $25 mm for Wieters and Trumbo also can be redeployed. Manny, Schoop and Gausman are on the good side of the aging curve. On balance, I think if these additions were enough to make us serious contenders in 2016, we'd be likely to be serious contenders in 2017 as well. I'm not commenting on 2018 because Ubaldo, Tillman and Gonzalez all will be free agents by then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Note to Ken, if they keep giving away draft picks, the O's won't have the prospects to use on a guy like Bruce in the future. No Fowler, no Gallardo - Soprano has spoken.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> also like free agent Pedro Alvarez and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Reds?src=hash">#Reds</a>’ Bruce in addition to Fowler, per sources. Might not have prospects to land Bruce.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

ETA

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Orioles have interest in Dexter Fowler in the range of Howie Kendrick's deal with the Dodgers -- 2 years, $20 million.</p>— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Britton is gone, presumably the Orioles will have gotten some players of significant value in return. The $25 mm for Wieters and Trumbo also can be redeployed. Manny, Schoop and Gausman are on the good side of the aging curve. On balance, I think if these additions were enough to make us serious contenders in 2016, we'd be likely to be serious contenders in 2017 as well. I'm not commenting on 2018 because Ubaldo, Tillman and Gonzalez all will be free agents by then.

I don't think it is likely that the return for Britton would be ML ready. I also think (and this is speculation) that if the wallet is opened up wide enough for Gallardo and Fowler that payroll will be, at best, flat in 2017 and arbitration raises for Tillman, Manny and Schoop will eat up a sizeable chunk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Note to Ken, if they keep giving away draft picks, the O's won't have the prospects to use on a guy like Bruce in the future. No Fowler, no Gallardo - Soprano has spoken.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> also like free agent Pedro Alvarez and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Reds?src=hash">#Reds</a>? Bruce in addition to Fowler, per sources. Might not have prospects to land Bruce.</p>? Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

ETA

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Orioles have interest in Dexter Fowler in the range of Howie Kendrick's deal with the Dodgers -- 2 years, $20 million.</p>? Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Go get Dexter...AJ and he will be fun to watch...

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it is likely that the return for Britton would be ML ready.

Maybe yes, maybe no. We traded 1.3 years of Koji Uehara for Hunter and Davis, both of whom had significant major league experience. 2 - 2.3 years of Britton (depending on timing of a trade) should bring a better package than Uehara brought (as perceived at the time); it's just a matter of what level of experience the O's would prefer to obtain. I recall when we traded Uehara, there were a lot of folks saying we should have gone for younger prospects instead of Davis and Hunter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Note to Ken, if they keep giving away draft picks, the O's won't have the prospects to use on a guy like Bruce in the future. No Fowler, no Gallardo - Soprano has spoken.

a) It's ridiculous that the Orioles don't have the prospects to get Bruce right now. Bruce is not that good. Reds can't see past his overpaid salary?

b) Losing first round picks hurt for sure, but the bulk of a teams' farm system is comprised of other players. The Orioles need to keep improving in all areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, not at all. Fowler's established level (weighted average of the last four years) is 2.3 wins in fWAR. Gallardo's is a bit over 2, also, since his rWAR is clearly an outlier - by far his best season, two wins better than his fWAR, and in a year where his K rate declined to well below average while his BB/9 declined from '14. Four is reasonable.

Well, with rWAR, there was one down season over the last four where they combined for 2.5 WAR. The other three years they combined for 5.9, 4.3, and 6.3. So yeah, they might be able to combine for 4.0 this season. 2017, they probably will be negative.

If Gallardo's k rate keeps decreasing as it has, he'll strike out negative 3 batters per game.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of very on-point commentary in here, that has already been mentioned in the Gallardo thread, but there's enough that I figured it deserves it own place.

I agree with pretty much everything Cameron's said. I don't like Gallardo at 3/40, but that becomes tolerable if it also means Fowler at 2/20. And I even think there would be some possibility to get Fowler at 3/30 or something along those lines, which may be an even better deal.

I was for the Gallardo Fowler deal but Can and others have made good points. So

now I don't know what to think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...