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Would we be a contender with Gallarado and/or Fowler in the fold for 2016?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

Would adding Gallardo and/or Fowler make us a contender in 2016?  

111 members have voted

  1. 1. Would adding Gallardo and/or Fowler make us a contender in 2016?

    • We are likely to be a contender with or without Gallardo and Fowler
      27
    • We are not likely to be a contender regardless of whether we have Gallardo and/or Fowler
      9
    • We need both Gallardo and Fowler to be likely to contend
      63
    • We need only Gallardo to be likely to contend
      6
    • We need only Fowler to be likely to contend
      6

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
Just trying to gauge how much of a difference people think Gallardo and/or Fowler would make. Poll to follow.

In my mind, to be a contender you need to be expected to win 85+ games. But define contender however you'd like.

The Orioles, by my random guessing, are about a .500 team now. .500 teams sometimes win 81, sometimes 74, sometimes 92, and other numbers, too. I think the most likely case in adding Gallardo and Fowler is an addition of four wins, but maybe anywhere from 2-6, give or take.

So... with those acquisitions I'd say one standard deviation (off the baseline of a guess) is 77 to 93 wins. I suppose that could fall into "to be a contender you need to be expected to win 85+ games" so I'll pick it makes them contenders.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Posted
I think that's incredibly pessimistic. I see us as an 88 win team, as is.

85 is incredibly pessimistic, and 88 isn't? I see those two projections as basically being the same thing.

Edit: I didn't do well in reading comprehension, I see you have the O's at 88 now, probably 92 (?) with Fowler/Gallardo. I think that's somewhat bullish.

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MDtransplant757 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDtransplant757

Posted
Posted
Familiarity breeds contempt.

Unless we're losing. I had that with our 14 years of darkness. I knew we were good at one point, but that was before my time. Shoot, when the O's made the playoffs in 2012 I couldn't believe it. That was the first time they made it since I was born and it was in my freshman year of HS. Loved it. 2014 was great because I just went around and went "CRUUUUUZ!" To those dumb nats fans. We're so used to winning at this point that we're spoiled.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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So the vote is 91.78 percent that we will contend if we make these moves. Or any of them or none of them.

The fact that Stotle is in the group voting that we won't be contenders makes me nervous, because I don't consider him to be someone who leans towards pessimism and he is probably more objective than many of us. Still, I voted with the group that said we'll likely be contenders with these two acquisitions (but not if we make just one of the two).

(PS to the others who voted that we aren't likely to be contenders even if we make these moves -- don't feel hurt that I singled out Stotle. I can see reasons for anyone to be worried that these moves may not be enough to put us in contention.

I note that RZNJ hasn't voted, and I expect he might fall in the "not likely to be contenders" camp.

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