The Case for P. Alvarez

[OFFNY]

Only way they sign Alvarez is if they trade Trumbo. He is a one dimensional player. A LH DH who can't hit LHP and can't play a position. Buck likes versatility. Reimold and Trumbo may not hit RHP as well, but they do OK v it and they play COF and 1B in Trumbo's case.

Yeah, this was pretty much what I was saying on the previous page.

All things considered, a one-dimensional player is not what this team (generally) needs, nor what Showalter and Duquette want.

Insurance in case of an injury to a DH that is already here does not feel like a good enough reason to add him, and subsequently give him a roster spot.

[TINSTAAPP]

I do agree that it's silly to have both Reimold and Rickard on the bench. Not only is that somewhat redundant, but then you have 7 guys on the 25 man that can play outfield. That seems unnecessary.

Rickard should be the 4th OF on this team period. I'd rather have Alvarez on the 25 man roster as well. Reimold is basically a platoon DH. He's a terrible defender and he hasn't shown any ability to hit RHP over the last three or four years. He might be a decent pinch-hitter on a NL team but that's really the only role he has on a MLB roster.

[El Gordo]

Rickard should be the 4th OF on this team period. I'd rather have Alvarez on the 25 man roster as well. Reimold is basically a platoon DH. He's a terrible defender and he hasn't shown any ability to hit RHP over the last three or four years. He might be a decent pinch-hitter on a NL team but that's really the only role he has on a MLB roster.

Reimold may not be the best fielder but he's head and shoulders above Alvarez with the glove. If Alvarez could field and didn't cost 2M+ it would be a consideration But you aren't DHing him over Trumbo when Trumbo is making 9M

[Enjoy Terror]

1. Fowler has not been very durable over the course of his career.

This is not meant to be a knock on Fowler. I think he's a fantastic player and I'll be very excited if we sign him at the terms that have been discussed. But I hadn't noticed when I made the OP that he's missed chunks of time in almost every year of his career:

2009: 135 games

2010: 132 w/ 27 in minors (not sure if rehab or demotion)

2011: 125 w/ 22 in minors (not sure if rehab or demotion)

2012: 143

2013: 119

2014: 116

2015: 156

This may not be totally accurate but it's the best I can find:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/4/5172870/dexter-fowler-trade-is-he-injury-prone

2009: 17 games

Foul ball off Calf - 1

Bruising in knee - 1

Foul ball off Other Calf (DL) - 15

2010: 1 game

Rib Bruise (ran into wall) - 1

2011: 14 games

Abdominal strain (DL) - 14

2012: 13 games

Right ankle sprain - 1

Left Shoulder soreness - 1

Illness - 1

Sore back - 1

Right ankle sprain - 3

Right wrist tendonitis - 6

2013: 33 games

Right hip soreness - 1

HBP Right hand - 4

Right hand soreness (DL) - 14

Left knee sprain (DL) - 14

2014: 40 games

Right intercostal strain (DL) - 40

2015: 2 games

Left ankle sprain - 1 game

Right groin tightness - 1 game

[CaptainRedbeard]

This may not be totally accurate but it's the best I can find:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013/12/4/5172870/dexter-fowler-trade-is-he-injury-prone

2009: 17 games

Foul ball off Calf - 1

Bruising in knee - 1

Foul ball off Other Calf (DL) - 15

2010: 1 game

Rib Bruise (ran into wall) - 1

2011: 14 games

Abdominal strain (DL) - 14

2012: 13 games

Right ankle sprain - 1

Left Shoulder soreness - 1

Illness - 1

Sore back - 1

Right ankle sprain - 3

Right wrist tendonitis - 6

2013: 33 games

Right hip soreness - 1

HBP Right hand - 4

Right hand soreness (DL) - 14

Left knee sprain (DL) - 14

2014: 40 games

Right intercostal strain (DL) - 40

2015: 2 games

Left ankle sprain - 1 game

Right groin tightness - 1 game

Wow. So taking out the games with small injuries, we have:

-Foul ball off calf

-Abdominal strain

-Right hand soreness from HBP

-Left knee sprain

-Intercostal strain

At least there's no recurring injuries here. Only the abdominal/intercostal strains are similar. This makes me glad that there doesn't appear to be any chronic issues, and two injuries are from HBP, but still, not the most durable player around.

[Frobby]

Insurance mostly, primarily for Kim since he's still a question mark. Outside of that, pinch hit for Hardy, or spot start for Trumbo vs. RHP with big splits. Play when there's days off for any of Kim, Jones, Fowler, Davis, Trumbo.

I agree that if the roster's completely healthy and performing well, he's not very useful. But that's true for having both Reimold and Rickard anyway. What are they going to do on the bench if we keep both of them and Fowler is healthy? Only one of them will play vs. RHP, instead of Kim. That's not the scenario that this would be about - I'm more concerned about the (much more likely) scenario that at least one player among Kim/Jones/Fowler/Davis/Trumbo falters or is hurt at any given time. I think Alvarez would be in line for 300-400 ABs over the course of the season, and if he's getting less than that we're in a very good place because that means alot has gone our way.

I do not know much about Alvarez's personality, but I wonder how he would adjust from being a guy who plays most of the time to a guy who plays about half the time. In a vacuum, if you could get 90% of his PA vs. RHP, he seems like he'd be highly effective, but I'm not sure he'd cotton to it in reality.

[Roll Tide]

I do agree that it's silly to have both Reimold and Rickard on the bench. Not only is that somewhat redundant, but then you have 7 guys on the 25 man that can play outfield. That seems unnecessary.

I think you are getting Rickard or both not the other way around unless Ricard is clearly over his head this spring.

[backwardsk]

I think Dariel is a better fit on this squad than Pedro. Seriously.

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[TheBee]

1m1 minute ago

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman

Orioles have fowler on radar as is known but are looking at a variety of players, including pedro alvarez

[TheBee]

I don't know what to make of Heyman's post. Is this in addition to Fowler or is it a what if they don't sign him? Or is it posturing like we saw yesterday before Gallardo signed? Me, personally, I would like to see Fowler locked down by The Os.

[atomic]

Wieters is going to get games at DH as well. There is no place for Alvarez on the team if Fowler signs. Not a good fit.

[TheBee]

1m1 minute ago

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman

Orioles have fowler on radar as is known but are looking at a variety of players, including pedro alvarez

I agree that if we sign Fowler, it seems Alvarez wouldn't have an obvious place on this team. Again, don't know how to take the quote.

[El Gordo]

Remember Heyman is a Boras shill and Alvarez is a Boras client.

[bobmc]

Remember Heyman is a Boras shill and Alvarez is a Boras client.

A shrill shill of swill? :scratchchinhmm:

[CaptainRedbeard]

Even if Heyman is completely making it up, it's good he's reporting interest in Alvarez because it helps our case with Fowler.

I'm starting to think that we are the only team Boras could even come to for Alvarez. Let's ignore the NL teams for now, since he's such a bad 1B he'd likely only be a pinch hitter for them. To get playing time, he'd need to go to an AL team with a DH with position flexibility to play the OF/1B. Let's look at that team by team:

BOS: Papi. No fit.

NYY: A-Rod. Teixeira at 1B. No fit.

TB: Morrison/Pearce/Dickerson. Very crowded. No real fit, but perhaps some weaker competition.

TOR: Encarnacion. Unless they're down on Smoak and are ok with Encarnacion/Alvarez playing 1B, looks like another no fit.

DET: Martinez. No fit.

KC: Morales. No fit.

CLE: Santana. Napoli signed to be everyday 1B. Just signed Uribe. Looks like another no fit.

MIN: Park. Could play 1B, but Mauer entrenched there. No fit.

CHW: Laroche/Abreu. No fit.

SEA: Cruz. Could play the OF in a pinch, but he's another year older and they want to keep him healthy. Similar to the BAL situation, but likely worse.

LAA: Pujols/Cron. Big hole in LF - maybe Cron could do a Trumbo impression out there? He has no ML experience in the OF. Still a tough fit.

OAK: Butler. Haha.

TEX: Moreland/Fielder. Similar to LAA with a potentially big hole in LF if Hamilton is hurt, but no indication that Moreland could cut it out there. Unlikely fit.

HOU: Gattis. He's played some bad OF but he's had some injury issues and they want him at DH. Singleton is far from a sure thing at 1B. But, they already dumped Carter early in the offseason. Unlikely fit.

To me, it looks like the Orioles have easily the most position flexibility between their DH/1B pairs. Davis and Trumbo may be bad OFers, but at least they've spent some time out there. As far as I can tell, Boras/Alvarez may be best off coming to us to find playing time, even if he's not guaranteed it. They're more likely to play the "waiting for an injury game" but that's a risky proposition IMO.