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Is Parra the reason the O's may lose their 14th pick?


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If the Orioles had signed Markakis last year we would still have Stephen Tarpley, Steven Brault, and Zach Davies and would not be signing Fowler and have an additional First Round Pick. Seems like not signing Markakis was one of the biggest mistake the club has made.

They tried to sign Markakis, and was 2nd best, to a very stupid Atlanta offer that has become their worst contract.

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Do you think DD knew last year that going into this season, Boras was going to want too much money and that he was going to have a spot to fill?

If he honesty thought Davies had a chance to complete for that, he might not have traded him?

I don't think he felt he was going to be able to resign Chen because he knew someone would overpay this offseason. Saying that, my biggest concern with DD is him not knowing when to "fold 'em." I think he feels he owes it to the fans to give every year a run, which should be true in principle, but at the trading deadline, I felt he made the wrong assessment on his team and gave up too good of a prospect for a guy who wasn't going to move the needle much. If I were advising him I would have advised moving Chen/Davis/O'day for prospects at the trading deadline. I would have put Davies in the rotation down the stretch, brought up Alvarez for RF and Mancini for 1B.

This way I would have gone into this offseason having a two month look at guys on whether they can be effective replacements. I would have had some extra prospects for a system in need of influx of talent, and I would be able to determine whether I was willing to give up the 14th overall pick for the right player. We still could have resigned O'day and Davis to the exact contracts they got and had more quality talent in the system. Would we have finished at .500, probably not. But is the goal to finish at .500 or make the playoffs so the team has a shot at all?

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They tried to sign Markakis, and was 2nd best, to a very stupid Atlanta offer that has become their worst contract.

Exactly. Whether the O's made that offer for PR reasons or because of owner interference, all O's fans should be grateful Atlanta's foolishness exceeded the O's that time.

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Exactly. Whether the O's made that offer for PR reasons or because of owner interference, all O's fans should be grateful Atlanta's foolishness exceeded the O's that time.

Markakis had 1.9 WAR last season and made 11 million. That seems underpaid for a free agent. And to think all the players we lost and will be losing to try and replace that production.

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DD had to have known that Chen was gone. I loved the Parra trade at the time. I was practically is PR guy here on the OH around the deadline. It's just funny that the O's had De Aza and Parra last year and both of them had terrible times with the O's and really good times last year with their other teams. We were just snake bitten with COF's last year. That's why the idea of signing Fowler is such a positive. We don't have to potentially go through a revolving door in RF and our biggest worry in the lineup will be the LF platoon and if Hardy can bounce back.

As far as Davies goes he was my favorite player to follow in the milb. A guy that has a scouting report of back of rotation arm/swingman profiles a lot better in the NL central than he would in the AL East. That would be my reasoning for why the O's traded him, other than the Brewers not wanting Wilson and Wright. So that should let you know that another team thought more of Davies as a prospect than guys like Wilson and Wright. So maybe we should not expect Wilson and Wright to be more than swingman or relievers. Plus DD is great at finding depth and relievers. We have a stacked bullpen with a lot of SP prospects that will probably end up in the pen.

I'm not going to justify every pitcher DD has traded over the last few seasons. But we've had an awesome pen since he took over. He can find relievers. So if he traded guys that were looking like they were going to end up in the pen for pieces at the mlb level you cant argue with that thinking, for the most part. Time will tell. Even Ed Rod struggled the year we traded him and there was talk he might just be a bullpen guy.

It was very predictable that Parra would fall off badly - considering that his BABIP was ridiculously high before he was traded. Over the course of a year, things like that often (not always) even out. It was a bad trade at the time and turned out bad. De Aza is a very inconsistent player and depending on him is like playing Russian Rulette. Sometimes you get lucky, but I wouldn't bet on him. Losing on both of them wasn't bad luck. When you make bets on players like that, you should expect to lose.

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It was very predictable that Parra would fall off badly - considering that his BABIP was ridiculously high before he was traded. Over the course of a year, things like that often (not always) even out. It was a bad trade at the time and turned out bad. De Aza is a very inconsistent player and depending on him is like playing Russian Rulette. Sometimes you get lucky, but I wouldn't bet on him. Losing on both of them wasn't bad luck. When you make bets on players like that, you should expect to lose.

It was no more likely that Parra would suddenly BABIP .259 woth the O's than he would continue with the BABIP of .372 he had with the Brewers. The more likely outcome was that his BABIP would be around .323, which was his career rate. And I am sure the Orioles traded him with the expectation that he would deviate to the norm, not wildly swing even further below the norm than he had been above the norm.

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Markakis had 1.9 WAR last season and made 11 million. That seems underpaid for a free agent. And to think all the players we lost and will be losing to try and replace that production.

Well, I don't know how WAR is computed, but I do know Nick has poor range in RF, very little power - especially for a corner OFer, and no speed. And at his age, he's going to continue to decline in the field, will likely decline with the bat, and may be the slowest non-catcher base-runner in MLB. Signing him to a 4 year/ 42 mil contract (as Atl did) would have been mind-numbingly foolish, imo.

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It was no more likely that Parra would suddenly BABIP .259 woth the O's than he would continue with the BABIP of .372 he had with the Brewers. The more likely outcome was that his BABIP would be around .323, which was his career rate. And I am sure the Orioles traded him with the expectation that he would deviate to the norm, not wildly swing even further below the norm than he had been above the norm.

Parra's got a lifetime OPS+ of 97. There was and is no reason to expect him to be more than a mediocre hitter.

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http://longenhagen.blogspot.com/2016/02/week-1-college-baseball-prospects-on-tv.html

The following college baseball teams and their notable prospects can be seen on ESPN’s online family of networks this weekend. Check WatchESPN for times. UVA/Coastal and SHst/LA-Lafayette are only broadcast on Sunday, according to the current schedule.

Central Michigan Arkansas

Nick Deeg, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP

Zach McKinstry, MIF

Logan Regnier, OF

Sean Renzi, RHP

Albany South Carolina

Stephen Woods, RHP

Ryan Stinar, RHP

Sacramento State Auburn

Sam Long, LHP KeeganThompson,RHP

Gunnar Pollman, C Anfernee Grier, OF

San Diego Vanderbilt

Troy Conyers, LHP Jordan Sheffield, RHP

Bryson Brigman, SS Hayden Stone, RHP

Ben Bowden, LHP

John Kilichowski, LHP

Will Toffey, CIF

Bryan Reynolds, OF

Florida International Ole Miss

J.C. Escarra, C J.B. Woodman, OF

Cody Crouse, RHP Errol Robinson, SS

Chris Mourelle, RHP Chad Smith, RHP

Georgia Southern

Georgia

Robert Tyler, RHP

Stephen Wrenn, OF

Florida Atlantic Mississippi St

C.J. Chatham, MIF Zach Houston, RHP

Stephen Kerr, MIF Dakota Hudson, RHP

Colyn O’Connell, RHP

Christian Dicks, OF

UNLV Texas

Justin Jones, 2B Morgan Cooper, RHP

D.J. Myers, RHP Tres Barrera, C

Josh Sawyer, LHP

Bret Boswell, MIF

Florida Gulf Coast Florida

Jake Noll, MIF Logan Shore, RHP

Nick Rivera, CIF Dan Dunning, RHP

Shaun Anderson, RHP

A.J. Puk, LHP

Scott Moss, LHP

Peter Alonso, CIF

Buddy Reed, OF

Rutgers Miami

Tom Marcincyzk, OF Bryan Garcia, RHP

Willie Abreu, 1B

Jacob Heyward, OF

Zack Collins, C

Danny Garcia, LHP

Hofstra Texas A&M

Alec Eisenberg, RHP Ryan Hendrix, RHP

Nick Banks, OF

Maryland Alabama

Mike Shawaryn, RHP

Nick Cieri, C

Cincinnati LSU

Riley Smith, RHP

Jared Poche, LHP

Jake Fraley, OF

Virginia Coastal Carolina

Daniel Pinero, INF Michael Paez, C

Matt Thaiss, C Adam Hall, RHP

Connor Jones, RHP G.K. Young, C

Alex Cunningham, RHP

Sam Houston State LA-Lafayette

Bryce Johnson, OF Stefan Trosclair, CIF

Sam Odom, RHP Steve Sensley, OF

Ishmael Edwards, OF

David Bednar, RHP

Reagan Bazar, RHP

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I don't think he felt he was going to be able to resign Chen because he knew someone would overpay this offseason. Saying that, my biggest concern with DD is him not knowing when to "fold 'em." I think he feels he owes it to the fans to give every year a run, which should be true in principle, but at the trading deadline, I felt he made the wrong assessment on his team and gave up too good of a prospect for a guy who wasn't going to move the needle much. If I were advising him I would have advised moving Chen/Davis/O'day for prospects at the trading deadline. I would have put Davies in the rotation down the stretch, brought up Alvarez for RF and Mancini for 1B.

This way I would have gone into this offseason having a two month look at guys on whether they can be effective replacements. I would have had some extra prospects for a system in need of influx of talent, and I would be able to determine whether I was willing to give up the 14th overall pick for the right player. We still could have resigned O'day and Davis to the exact contracts they got and had more quality talent in the system. Would we have finished at .500, probably not. But is the goal to finish at .500 or make the playoffs so the team has a shot at all?

Nice post, and you do make some valid points.

My big problem with what you said, they still were in it, and the old cliche, thats not over, till its over, isn't just a cliche. Before that epic collapse in August, it was still doable and once that happen, it was too late to fold 'em.

Back to your fold 'em analogy. Maybe its PAG, with his desire for one last winner, or maybe it's younger and John wants the team to be a winner, that have tied DD's hands, and he wasn't allowed to toss it in, and see what they had for this season?

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Its easy to say that now, but the E-Rod we had here, wasn't the E-Rod that is now pitching for Boston.

No he wasn't that E-Rod here, but I think he was a much higher rated prospect than Davies ever was. I wasn't a fan of that trade either but I think Miller helped this team more than Parra ever did.

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That's on us. He became the ERod he is now, almost instantly after the trade.

Its definitely worth noting. I am not ready to flame the org over this, yet. Not knowing all the details. I do know that some people don't listen to some people and sometimes, a change of scenery or whatever, makes them have a light-bulb moment.

I know its easy for people to say the org has more than one miss, considering Arrieta, and its fair to consider that something is wrong in their system

No he wasn't that E-Rod here, but I think he was a much higher rated prospect than Davies ever was. I wasn't a fan of that trade either but I think Miller helped this team more than Parra ever did.

Miller did make more sense and I was okay with that trade, last season was different and while we needed a COF, I wasn't a big fan of the Davies trade.

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