Just go trade for Jay Bruce or Markakis

[DrungoHazewood]

Lots of glaring weaknesses in your post.

-The Orioles play in a small ballpark.

-Since when is $12.5 million a "lot of money" for a baseball player? Ubaldo makes that much and there are people here who believe he was worth it last year.

-What important pieces could he cost? They can always say no.

Yes, they need to improve the COF spots. Guess what? Bruce would do that.

I can't take seriously any plan that makes allowances for Jimmy Paredes. Anywhere.

2015 Jimmy Paredes: .726 OPS, 0.1 fWAR. 2015 Jay Bruce: .729 OPS, 0.1 fWAR. If you go back a year that doesn't help Bruce's case. The major downside with Jay Bruce is that he's been awful for the past two seasons.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't know of too many. Maybe I am just unaware. I thought that many of the real long contracts had declining values in the final years.

In real terms most of them are declining at the end. A contract structured 10, 15, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20 is declining in real terms after inflation.

[Il BuonO]

2015 Jimmy Paredes: .726 OPS, 0.1 fWAR. 2015 Jay Bruce: .729 OPS, 0.1 fWAR. If you go back a year that doesn't help Bruce's case. The major downside with Jay Bruce is that he's been awful for the past two seasons.

You're not seriously arguing the benefits of Jimmy Paredes vs Jay Bruce are you? I wasn't going back a year, but apparently OPS and WAR comparisons make them comparable players. Is that right? Paredes ISO last year was a pathetic .114 and he carries a .112 mark for his career. Bruce was at .209 and is holds a .215 mark for his career. Bruce has contributed 15.5 rWAR over his career compared to Paredes -1.3. If we're going to cherry-pick lets be representative of who we are talking about.

These two are not remotely the same player. Furthermore, Paredes is not a COF let alone a defender at any position.

[El Gordo]

You have to wonder about the poor performance the last two years.

[Crazysilver03]

You're not seriously arguing the benefits of Jimmy Paredes vs Jay Bruce are you? I wasn't going back a year, but apparently OPS and WAR comparisons make them comparable players. Is that right? Paredes ISO last year was a pathetic .114 and he carries a .112 mark for his career. Bruce was at .209 and is holds a .215 mark for his career. Bruce has contributed 15.5 rWAR over his career compared to Paredes -1.3. If we're going to cherry-pick lets be representative of who we are talking about.

These two are not remotely the same player. Furthermore, Paredes is not a COF let alone a defender at any position.

Why are you bringing Bruce's career WAR into this discussion when he hasnt resembled his former self in many years? He is a replacement level player earning more then he is worth now.

Him and Paredes having roughly the same value the last two years just illustrates that a lot of people are putting stock into a name.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

[DrungoHazewood]

You're not seriously arguing the benefits of Jimmy Paredes vs Jay Bruce are you? I wasn't going back a year, but apparently OPS and WAR comparisons make them comparable players. Is that right? Paredes ISO last year was a pathetic .114 and he carries a .112 mark for his career. Bruce was at .209 and is holds a .215 mark for his career. Bruce has contributed 15.5 rWAR over his career compared to Paredes -1.3. If we're going to cherry-pick lets be representative of who we are talking about.

These two are not remotely the same player. Furthermore, Paredes is not a COF let alone a defender at any position.

Absolutely I'm arguing about Paredes vs. Bruce. The fact that you can look back over Bruce's last two seasons and make that comp with a straight face should give you pause. He's literally been worth -0.8 fWAR since the start of 2014. He's hit .222/.288/406 over the last two seasons. That's terrible. Add on top of that his -10 defense over that period and there isn't a heck of a lot going for him. To even take a low-cost, one-year flier on him you'd have to have concrete reasons to think that he'll bounce back in a big way. Do you have that? Otherwise you're giving up some kind of asset to acquire an awful player making $12.5M in 2016, then a $1M buyout to get out from under another $13M in 2017.

[El Gordo]

DRS has Bruce at 18 RS in 2013, -7 in 2014, and 5 in 2015.

[Il BuonO]

Absolutely I'm arguing about Paredes vs. Bruce. The fact that you can look back over Bruce's last two seasons and make that comp with a straight face should give you pause. He's literally been worth -0.8 fWAR since the start of 2014. He's hit .222/.288/406 over the last two seasons. That's terrible. Add on top of that his -10 defense over that period and there isn't a heck of a lot going for him. To even take a low-cost, one-year flier on him you'd have to have concrete reasons to think that he'll bounce back in a big way. Do you have that? Otherwise you're giving up some kind of asset to acquire an awful player making $12.5M in 2016, then a $1M buyout to get out from under another $13M in 2017.

It's more likely the numbers you cite are the outliers and injuries played some part in 2014. Defensively he was -7 DRS in RF in 2014 and a +5 last year while a plus defender for most of his career. In any case, your comparison to Paredes is a poor one.

[Frobby]

Absolutely I'm arguing about Paredes vs. Bruce. The fact that you can look back over Bruce's last two seasons and make that comp with a straight face should give you pause. He's literally been worth -0.8 fWAR since the start of 2014. He's hit .222/.288/406 over the last two seasons. That's terrible. Add on top of that his -10 defense over that period and there isn't a heck of a lot going for him. To even take a low-cost, one-year flier on him you'd have to have concrete reasons to think that he'll bounce back in a big way. Do you have that? Otherwise you're giving up some kind of asset to acquire an awful player making $12.5M in 2016, then a $1M buyout to get out from under another $13M in 2017.

1. I'd easily bet on Jay Bruce outproducing Jimmy Paredes by a wide margin in 2016. That's not because I'm high on Bruce; it's because I think the league figured out Paredes and I doubt he'll be able to stick in the major leagues for all of 2016.

2. On the other hand, Paredes doesn't cost $12.5 mm. In terms of value compared to salary, Paredes might be more cost-effective (or maybe the better was to say it is "less cost-ineffective") than Bruce in 2016.

[El Gordo]

Jay Bruce struggled after knee surgery in 2014 but that doesn't explain last season.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/09/25/jay-bruce-i-am-embarrassed-with-my-season/

[Il BuonO]

Why are you bringing Bruce's career WAR into this discussion when he hasnt resembled his former self in many years? He is a replacement level player earning more then he is worth now.

Him and Paredes having roughly the same value the last two years just illustrates that a lot of people are putting stock into a name.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

It wasn't the only measure used and I think it's relevant because Bruce is capable of more than the level he's played at the last two years. And that's based on projecting his skill level not merely his name.

[Il BuonO]

1. I'd easily bet on Jay Bruce outproducing Jimmy Paredes by a wide margin in 2016. That's not because I'm high on Bruce; it's because I think the league figured out Paredes and I doubt he'll be able to stick in the major leagues for all of 2016.

2. On the other hand, Paredes doesn't cost $12.5 mm. In terms of value compared to salary, Paredes might be more cost-effective (or maybe the better was to say it is "less cost-ineffective") than Bruce in 2016.

Yeah, for what Bruce is due to be paid I'll bet he can produce at least two wins. Paredes, a definite no.

[DrungoHazewood]

1. I'd easily bet on Jay Bruce outproducing Jimmy Paredes by a wide margin in 2016. That's not because I'm high on Bruce; it's because I think the league figured out Paredes and I doubt he'll be able to stick in the major leagues for all of 2016.

2. On the other hand, Paredes doesn't cost $12.5 mm. In terms of value compared to salary, Paredes might be more cost-effective (or maybe the better was to say it is "less cost-ineffective") than Bruce in 2016.

I would guess that Bruce out-performs Paredes. But by how much? It is worth the huge salary difference? Even if Bruce bounces back to a 1-win player wouldn't the Orioles be better served to not acquire him and independently determine if Paredes was worth retaining in a platoon or reserve role? The key question here isn't so much about the relative worth of Bruce vs. Paredes, but whether it's worth acquiring a guy who's been terrible the last two years and is making $12-13M a year. I'm not a Paredes fan. I'm intrigued by Bruce but not at all confident he'll be worth $13M plus whatever it takes to pry him loose from the Reds.

[DrungoHazewood]

It wasn't the only measure used and I think it's relevant because Bruce is capable of more than the level he's played at the last two years. And that's based on projecting his skill level not merely his name.

For what reasons do you think Bruce will bounce back? In all seriousness, I don't have any idea why he's played poorly, I'd love for him to come to Baltimore to play well, but I don't have any objective evidence that he's still the player he was three years ago.

[Can_of_corn]

If a guy hangs out at around replacement level two years in a row I generally assume he is going to be in the 1.0- -1.0 range going forward.