Fangraphs: How the Shift has changed the game

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/how-the-shift-has-changed-the-game/

The shift is one of the most discussed changes in baseball in many years. It is probably the biggest purely defensive change in decades (right?). Commissioner Manfred has publicly stated that he dislikes it. Players are actively working with hitting coaches to beat the shift. People are asking, how can we beat the shift? And some are starting to deny we can. FanGraphs comments predict that the shift will be bad for baseball, because less offense is less fun.

But just how big is the shift? Just how much has it changed the league?

Zero.

[Can_of_corn]

This collaborates a piece they did previously.

The findings from that piece was that the shift was basically only hurting a couple extreme pull hitters per team and mostly on ground balls.

[El Gordo]

In 1957 Ted Williams hit .388 primarily by beating the shift.

[Number5]

In 1957 Ted Williams hit .388 primarily by beating the shift.

Is this true? Williams was famous for not changing his hitting style and still succeeding - shift or no shift. Are you saying that in 1957 Williams relented?

[El Gordo]

Is this true? Williams was famous for not changing his hitting style and still succeeding - shift or no shift. Are you saying that in 1957 Williams relented?

I recall reading about an interview with him where he said the reason he hit that well at 38 was that they were still using the shift on him even though his bat speed had slowed. Also there is a story about him talking to Yogi at an AS game about how to go the other way. Yogi was known for doing that well.

[Can_of_corn]

538 piece.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/

 

Quote

While shift usage has grown dramatically, there’s evidence that batters have adjusted by going over the shift, which reduced the overall effectiveness of the shift across baseball.

In 2011, batters hit ground balls 53.2 percent of the time when they put a ball in play against the shift. Last season that number was 43.9 percent, which is the lowest such rate since at least 2010, the first year for which data is available on FanGraphs. When batters are not facing shifts, ground-ball rates have remained steady.

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 3/27/2016 at 12:33 PM, RZNJ said:

Beating the shift in Ted Williams case was hitting through it, not around it. I think El Gordo is suggesting that he didn't change his approach and still hit .388.

This shift has been done before and the players are cry babies. Our roster is pretty much bare bones platoon player wise. We have lots of guys trying to show they can stick. If they can’t hit against a shift, they shouldn’t be part of our future. 

We lost 115. Players on our team should be dropping bunts down for hits whenever they have the chance. 

115 = Bunt

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

538 piece.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/

 

 

So the shift does work.  At least if you make the assumption that pre-shift batters were using roughly optimal behaviors.  The shft has caused them to change to presumably sub-optimal behaviors.  And those who cannot or will not change to a more fly-ball centric approach while being productive are driven out of the league.

Which has the side effect of changing the game to a more three true outcomes approach with fewer balls in play, since we're trading contact and grounders for driving the ball in the air.