Joey Rickard is the real deal

[El Gordo]

Any chance simply muscle-ing up could get the ball leaving the bat faster?

Not really. How many HR does Arnold have?

[CaptainRedbeard]

I'm worried about Rickard. He has a very strange approach at the plate. He doesn't swing often, which is fine, but he swings at tons of pitches outside of the zone.

Look at his rates compared to the league average:

Rickard / League Average

O-Swing % (swings at balls): 34.4% / 27.9%

Z-Swing % (swings at strikes): 46.4% / 66.0%

O-Contact % (contact on swings at balls): 82.2% / 59.4%

Z-Contact % (contact on swings at strikes: 87.5% / 85.4%

Keep in mind that this is a small sample, but these rates stabilize pretty quickly. Rickard looks like he has a very, very odd profile. He's not an elite contact hitter on pitches in the zone, despite swinging at an extremely low rate of strikes. Yet he's an elite contact hitter on balls and he swings at a lot of them.

Rickard looks like he's going to run high BABIPs. He's fast, he hits lots of grounders, and he doesn't hit the ball hard so he gets lots of infield hits and soft liners falling in front of outfielders. These are all qualities of his contact ability on pitches out of the zone, so that's not a bad thing.

My concern is that it's nearly impossible to walk with this profile if pitchers throw him strikes. He's taking a ton of pitches in the zone so he's going to be behind in the count. And he swings at the pitches out of the zone. It's a formula that will lead to a lot of K's despite good contact abilities, which it has for him - he's at 20% now and was in the minors as well. But in the minors, that was fine because he was walking at a good rate. My fear is that in the majors he'll see a lot more pitches in the zone than he did in the minors, and he's not going to get his walks. He hasn't so far this year, at only 3.1%.

I'm optimistic that Rickard can be a decent starter. But if he doesn't start walking more he's going to have a hard time getting there. Even with a very high BABIP, a 20% K rate is only going to allow you about a max .280-.290 AVG. He needs some walks to produce OBP value.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I'm worried about Rickard. He has a very strange approach at the plate. He doesn't swing often, which is fine, but he swings at tons of pitches outside of the zone.

Look at his rates compared to the league average:

Rickard / League Average

O-Swing % (swings at balls): 34.4% / 27.9%

Z-Swing % (swings at strikes): 46.4% / 66.0%

O-Contact % (contact on swings at balls): 82.2% / 59.4%

Z-Contact % (contact on swings at strikes: 87.5% / 85.4%

Keep in mind that this is a small sample, but these rates stabilize pretty quickly. Rickard looks like he has a very, very odd profile. He's not an elite contact hitter on pitches in the zone, despite swinging at an extremely low rate of strikes. Yet he's an elite contact hitter on balls and he swings at a lot of them.

Rickard looks like he's going to run high BABIPs. He's fast, he hits lots of grounders, and he doesn't hit the ball hard so he gets lots of infield hits and soft liners falling in front of outfielders. These are all qualities of his contact ability on pitches out of the zone, so that's not a bad thing.

My concern is that it's nearly impossible to walk with this profile if pitchers throw him strikes. He's taking a ton of pitches in the zone so he's going to be behind in the count. And he swings at the pitches out of the zone. It's a formula that will lead to a lot of K's despite good contact abilities, which it has for him - he's at 20% now and was in the minors as well. But in the minors, that was fine because he was walking at a good rate. My fear is that in the majors he'll see a lot more pitches in the zone than he did in the minors, and he's not going to get his walks. He hasn't so far this year, at only 3.1%.

I'm optimistic that Rickard can be a decent starter. But if he doesn't start walking more he's going to have a hard time getting there. Even with a very high BABIP, a 20% K rate is only going to allow you about a max .280-.290 AVG. He needs some walks to produce OBP value.

He had high walk rates all through the minors. He's been deep in a lot of counts and seen a lot of pitches. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start to take more walks as the season goes on.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm worried about Rickard. He has a very strange approach at the plate. He doesn't swing often, which is fine, but he swings at tons of pitches outside of the zone.

Look at his rates compared to the league average:

Rickard / League Average

O-Swing % (swings at balls): 34.4% / 27.9%

Z-Swing % (swings at strikes): 46.4% / 66.0%

O-Contact % (contact on swings at balls): 82.2% / 59.4%

Z-Contact % (contact on swings at strikes: 87.5% / 85.4%

Keep in mind that this is a small sample, but these rates stabilize pretty quickly. Rickard looks like he has a very, very odd profile. He's not an elite contact hitter on pitches in the zone, despite swinging at an extremely low rate of strikes. Yet he's an elite contact hitter on balls and he swings at a lot of them.

Rickard looks like he's going to run high BABIPs. He's fast, he hits lots of grounders, and he doesn't hit the ball hard so he gets lots of infield hits and soft liners falling in front of outfielders. These are all qualities of his contact ability on pitches out of the zone, so that's not a bad thing.

My concern is that it's nearly impossible to walk with this profile if pitchers throw him strikes. He's taking a ton of pitches in the zone so he's going to be behind in the count. And he swings at the pitches out of the zone. It's a formula that will lead to a lot of K's despite good contact abilities, which it has for him - he's at 20% now and was in the minors as well. But in the minors, that was fine because he was walking at a good rate. My fear is that in the majors he'll see a lot more pitches in the zone than he did in the minors, and he's not going to get his walks. He hasn't so far this year, at only 3.1%.

I'm optimistic that Rickard can be a decent starter. But if he doesn't start walking more he's going to have a hard time getting there. Even with a very high BABIP, a 20% K rate is only going to allow you about a max .280-.290 AVG. He needs some walks to produce OBP value.

Interesting data.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I'm worried about Rickard. He has a very strange approach at the plate. He doesn't swing often, which is fine, but he swings at tons of pitches outside of the zone.

Look at his rates compared to the league average:

Rickard / League Average

O-Swing % (swings at balls): 34.4% / 27.9%

Z-Swing % (swings at strikes): 46.4% / 66.0%

O-Contact % (contact on swings at balls): 82.2% / 59.4%

Z-Contact % (contact on swings at strikes: 87.5% / 85.4%

Keep in mind that this is a small sample, but these rates stabilize pretty quickly. Rickard looks like he has a very, very odd profile. He's not an elite contact hitter on pitches in the zone, despite swinging at an extremely low rate of strikes. Yet he's an elite contact hitter on balls and he swings at a lot of them.

Rickard looks like he's going to run high BABIPs. He's fast, he hits lots of grounders, and he doesn't hit the ball hard so he gets lots of infield hits and soft liners falling in front of outfielders. These are all qualities of his contact ability on pitches out of the zone, so that's not a bad thing.

My concern is that it's nearly impossible to walk with this profile if pitchers throw him strikes. He's taking a ton of pitches in the zone so he's going to be behind in the count. And he swings at the pitches out of the zone. It's a formula that will lead to a lot of K's despite good contact abilities, which it has for him - he's at 20% now and was in the minors as well. But in the minors, that was fine because he was walking at a good rate. My fear is that in the majors he'll see a lot more pitches in the zone than he did in the minors, and he's not going to get his walks. He hasn't so far this year, at only 3.1%.

I'm optimistic that Rickard can be a decent starter. But if he doesn't start walking more he's going to have a hard time getting there. Even with a very high BABIP, a 20% K rate is only going to allow you about a max .280-.290 AVG. He needs some walks to produce OBP value.

Some more context for his numbers, out of 202 qualified hitters:

O-Swing%: 46th highest

Z-Swing%: 5th lowest (only Hardy, Mauer, Kipnis, and Gardner lower)

O-Contact%: 6th highest (only Iglesias, Melky Cabrera, Mauer, Markakis, Simmons higher)

Z-Swing%: 101 (dead middle of the pack)

So in some sense, he looks like Joe Mauer. That's awesome. Except Joe Mauer almost never swings at balls (17.6%, 15th lowest in baseball) and has very good contact in the zone (94.5%, 23rd highest). Rickard's profile really doesn't have any good comps, as far as i can tell.

[CaptainRedbeard]

He had high walk rates all through the minors. He's been deep in a lot of counts and seen a lot of pitches. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start to take more walks as the season goes on.

This is my hope as well. It's not enough data yet to say he's not going to walk. It's enough to make me nervous about it though. There's also the factor that he's a rookie and pitchers are changing how they pitch to him, so you can't draw much of it.

[El Gordo]

Why walk when you don't need to. He works the count and ends up protecting the zone with 2 strikes. Probably why he has a high O swing%. But I haven't seen a guy with this consistency of QAB since BRob, except for maybe Manny.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Some more context for his numbers, out of 202 qualified hitters:

O-Swing%: 46th highest

Z-Swing%: 5th lowest (only Hardy, Mauer, Kipnis, and Gardner lower)

O-Contact%: 6th highest (only Iglesias, Melky Cabrera, Mauer, Markakis, Simmons higher)

Z-Swing%: 101 (dead middle of the pack)

So in some sense, he looks like Joe Mauer. That's awesome. Except Joe Mauer almost never swings at balls (17.6%, 15th lowest in baseball) and has very good contact in the zone (94.5%, 23rd highest). Rickard's profile really doesn't have any good comps, as far as i can tell.

And he bats righty/throws lefty like some sort of freak.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Some more context for his numbers, out of 202 qualified hitters:

O-Swing%: 46th highest

Z-Swing%: 5th lowest (only Hardy, Mauer, Kipnis, and Gardner lower)

O-Contact%: 6th highest (only Iglesias, Melky Cabrera, Mauer, Markakis, Simmons higher)

Z-Swing%: 101 (dead middle of the pack)

So in some sense, he looks like Joe Mauer. That's awesome. Except Joe Mauer almost never swings at balls (17.6%, 15th lowest in baseball) and has very good contact in the zone (94.5%, 23rd highest). Rickard's profile really doesn't have any good comps, as far as i can tell.

Last bit of Rickard data. I had to download data from fangraphs and calculate it myself, I wish they had it on their website: Z-Swing minus O-Swing. They've referenced it in articles before. Conceptually, if you want a stat to approximate plate discipline, it's ability to discern balls from strikes and then swing at more strikes than you do balls. So, low = bad and high = good. Here's where Rickard stacks up:

Z-Swing minus O-Swing

1. Rickard: 17.2%

2. Infante: 20.4%

3. Kipnis: 23.4%

4. Iglesias: 23.6%

5. Mercer: 24.1%

Not...great. He's certainly at the extreme end of the spectrum so far through the season. Not a death sentence, but not...great.

[NCRaven]

I don't think a 14 game sample for a rookie has much value at all. First, 14 games just doesn't tell you much. Second, I don't think many players careers look a lot like their rookie seasons. Lots of ROYs fail, lots of guys with middling rookie seasons mature and have long careers. We'll see.

As to regression from where he's at now, it doesn't take a Fangraphs stat genius to think that Rickard isn't going to hit .350 for the season.

[canonfaz]

I haven't seen this much difference of opinion on the board for a player since Lew Ford!

BRING BACK LEW FORD!

[CaptainRedbeard]

Why walk when you don't need to. He works the count and ends up protecting the zone with 2 strikes. Probably why he has a high O swing%. But I haven't seen a guy with this consistency of QAB since BRob, ecept for maybe Manny.

You do need to walk when you strike out 20% of the time, if you want a good OBP. Rickard has no power so he needs a good OBP.

He's K'd at 20% in the majors and in the minors was a bit lower, but that usually increases when you make the jump. So let's calculate his batting average, even giving him credit for an extremely high BABIP - let's say .350. Since 2000, with a minimum 1000 PA, only 9 hitters have exceeded a .350 BABIP for their careers.

With a 20% K rate and a .350 BABIP, that would result in a .280 AVG. If Rickard is a .280 hitter, he's going to need to walk a heck of a lot more than 3.1% of the time to be a worthwhile offensive player.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I don't think a 14 game sample for a rookie has much value at all. First, 14 games just doesn't tell you much. Second, I don't think many players careers look a lot like their rookie seasons. Lots of ROYs fail, lots of guys with middling rookie seasons mature and have long careers. We'll see.

As to regression from where he's at now, it doesn't take a Fangraphs stat genius to think that Rickard isn't going to hit .350 for the season.

That's not what I'm trying to say. It's a given he won't hit .350. In fact unless he has a very unforeseen improvement in his K rate, he probably won't hit better than .280. So the key for him will be how much he walks, and his plate discipline profile thus far (yes in 14 games) does not look good for drawing walks. That is why there is some reason for concern. It could definitely be small sample size nonsense but it's more concerning than if he had a more typical profile.

[DrungoHazewood]

You do need to walk when you strike out 20% of the time, if you want a good OBP. Rickard has no power so he needs a good OBP.

He's K'd at 20% in the majors and in the minors was a bit lower, but that usually increases when you make the jump. So let's calculate his batting average, even giving him credit for an extremely high BABIP - let's say .350. Since 2000, with a minimum 1000 PA, only 9 hitters have exceeded a .350 BABIP for their careers.

With a 20% K rate and a .350 BABIP, that would result in a .280 AVG. If Rickard is a .280 hitter, he's going to need to walk a heck of a lot more than 3.1% of the time to be a worthwhile offensive player.

I think I'd wait a little bit before drawing firm conclusions. Rickard has 64 MLB PAs. Yes, I know about stabilization rates.

I think it would be fairly remarkable if his 12-13% walk rate in the minors translated to 3% in the majors. Brian Roberts walked 12-13% of the time in the minors and ended up around 9-10% in the majors. 3% is Jonathan Schoop. Or Mariano Duncan. You basically can't go lower than 3%, that's like the rate you get when you're a pitcher hitting and you just decide you're not ever swinging.

[El Gordo]

Last bit of Rickard data. I had to download data from fangraphs and calculate it myself, I wish they had it on their website: Z-Swing minus O-Swing. They've referenced it in articles before. Conceptually, if you want a stat to approximate plate discipline, it's ability to discern balls from strikes and then swing at more strikes than you do balls. So, low = bad and high = good. Here's where Rickard stacks up:

Z-Swing minus O-Swing

1. Rickard: 17.2%

2. Infante: 20.4%

3. Kipnis: 23.4%

4. Iglesias: 23.6%

5. Mercer: 24.1%

Not...great. He's certainly at the extreme end of the spectrum so far through the season. Not a death sentence, but not...great.

At this point in the season I'll take what I see from his AB over SSS data. Maybe after 150 PA I'll glance at the data if he isn't still hitting.